The Oscar race for Best Original Screenplay could end in a photo finish, judging from the predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users as of this writing. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) has the narrowest of leads against Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”). Numerically speaking, they’re actually dead even with 7/2 odds.
But while most of our everyday users are picking “Everything” to win this race, a lot of our most elite pundits think it’s the other way around. Of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, 11 say “Banshees” will prevail over nine who say “Everything.” Of our Editors who cover awards year-round, six say “Banshees” while five say “Everything.” And of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ prediction results, 12 say “Banshees” while 10 say “Everything.” The only group that breaks for “Everything” is our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Oscar winners: 16 are betting on the sci-fi dramedy with eight favoring “Banshees.”
There’s a chance that voters will pick “Banshees” to spread the wealth. This could be the film’s best opportunity at a trophy, and sometimes the screenplay award ends up being a consolation prize for a film that misses out everywhere else (e.g. “The Imitation Game,” “Belfast”). But are voters really that sentimental? Eight years ago the academy didn’t spread the wealth; they gave Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for “Birdman,” leaving nothing for fellow auteurs Wes Anderson (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”) or Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”). Likewise, three years ago Bong Joon Ho ran the board for “Parasite,” leaving Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Sam Mendes (“1917”), and Noah Baumbach (“Marriage Story”) entirely in the dust.
That said, Best Picture doesn’t always line up with the writing awards. “The Shape of Water” (2017) and “Nomadland” (2020) both won the top prize while the screenplay awards went to films that were distinctly writers’ achievements: the horror ingenuity of “Get Out” and the intricate play adapting of “The Father,” respectively. Likewise, “Everything Everywhere” could win the most coveted trophy of the night, while writing honors go to the character-driven, dialogue-heavy “Banshees.” But no one can seem to agree yet which scenario will play out.
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