How much will Oscar voters spread the wealth this year? With 10 Best Picture nominees and only 18 categories to divide between them (excluding Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, and the three shorts categories, which don’t overlap with Best Picture), you can’t guarantee that everyone will be taken care of. But there may be a path for almost all of them to win at least one award.
Let’s start with Gold Derby’s odds as of this writing. Based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users, six of the 10 Best Picture nominees are front-runners in at least one category: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay), “TAR” (Actress), “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Cinematography, International Feature), “Top Gun: Maverick” (Film Editing, Sound), “Avatar: The Way of Water” (Visual Effects) and “Women Talking” (Adapted Screenplay).
That leaves four films with no wins if our odds are correct: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “The Fabelmans,” “Elvis,” and “Triangle of Sadness.” Are they out of luck? Maybe not. Multiple Expert journalists think Colin Farrell will win Best Actor for “Banshees” and most of them say it will upset “Everything” for Original Screenplay. If it wins either of those nail-biter categories, that makes seven Best Picture nominees with a win.
“The Fabelmans” is also on the bubble for a couple of awards, ranked second for both Best Director (Steven Spielberg) and Best Score. Spielberg won the Golden Globe, and could easily win the Directors Guild prize, so don’t count him out here. And composer John Williams is a living legend up against front-runner Justin Hurwitz (“Babylon”), whose film wasn’t as well-received by the academy as “The Fabelmans.” If one of them wins their close contests, that’s eight Best Picture nominees with an award.
The ninth film is “Elvis,” which ranks a close second in three different categories: Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. Its costume designer and production designer, Catherine Martin, won double Oscars for “Moulin Rouge!” and “The Great Gatsby,” so why not “Elvis”? I have a feeling the music biopic will win at least one of the craft categories it’s nominated in.
The film with the toughest road to an Oscar is “Triangle of Sadness,” which only has three nominations and is an underdog in all three races. According to our current odds, it ranks ninth for Picture, fifth for Director, and fifth for Original Screenplay. Those odds will be tough to overcome. One could engineer a scenario where “Triangle” wins Original Screenplay while “Banshees” ekes out a win for Best Actor. Not impossible, but the stars would have to align just right. This year I think nine winning Best Picture nominees is a much likelier scenario than all 10. What do you think? Vote in our poll below.
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