Oscar odds update after Golden Globes and Critics Choice crowned 3 different Best Pictures

Did the Oscar race for Best Picture get any clearer after a week of awards announcements, or did it just get more complicated? The Golden Globes awarded two Best Picture winners on January 10: “The Banshees of Inisherin” (musical/comedy) and “The Fabelmans” (drama). Then the Critics Choice Awards picked an entirely different Best Picture: “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” So who’s ahead to win the academy’s top honor?

As of this writing “Everything Everywhere” is still in the catbird seat with 7/1 odds. Nine of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed are betting on it to prevail at the Oscars, more than any other film. It’s also backed by a majority of Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, most of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, and just over half of the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine prediction results from the last two years.

But looking just at the Experts, this race is still pretty wide open. While a leading nine Experts bet on “Everything Everywhere,” that’s fewer than half of all Experts making their predictions. Another five of those top journos say “The Fabelmans” will prevail. Five more say “Top Gun: Maverick” will win Best Picture. Two are betting on “Banshees,” and one apiece predict “Elvis” and “Women Talking.”

And the industry awards haven’t clarified things much more than that because the top three films in our odds — “Everything Everywhere,” “Fabelmans,” and “Banshees” — were all nominated for Best Picture at the PGA Awards, Best Director at the DGA Awards, and best ensemble cast at the SAG Awards. So the playing field is pretty level between them. And fourth-ranked “Top Gun: Maverick” got top noms from the PGA and DGA as well. So while “Everything Everywhere” is sitting pretty at the moment, its front-runner status is far from secure.

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