The acting categories this awards season have seen mixed results over the past couple of months — except for Best Supporting Actor. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) has been on a remarkably consistent winning streak, and since the nominations were announced on January 24 he has become the strongest front-runner in any of the acting races in our odds. So is he the one winner we can count on when awards are handed out on March 12?
Based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users as of this writing, Quan looks almost indomitable. The Expert journalists we’ve surveyed so far from major media outlets are unanimous that he’ll win. So are the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round. All of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Oscars agree. And out of our All-Star Top 24, who got the best prediction scores when you combine the last two years’ results, 23 are betting on Quan with one going out on a limb for Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”).
So how did Quan get so far out front? Well, it started with the critics. He won Best Supporting Actor plaudits from film journalists in (takes a deep breath) Boston, Chicago, Florida, Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas City, Las Vegas, North Carolina, North Dakota, North Texas, Oklahoma, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis, Toronto, the UK, Utah, and Washington DC. He also swept the big trifecta of critics groups: New York, Los Angeles, and the National Society. And he followed all that by winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. That kind of dominance is exceedingly rare.
And yet, there’s still a little room left for his rivals to maneuver. Just last year we saw Kodi Smit-McPhee rack up critics’ awards for “The Power of the Dog” only for the industry groups (SAG, BAFTA, Oscars) to break for Troy Kotsur (“CODA”). Thus far we have yet to see any results from industry organizations — except the Gotham Awards, where a small jury of industry insiders indeed picked Quan. If there’s a turn in this race, it’ll happen at the SAG and/or BAFTA Awards. But the way things have been going thus far, it’s hard to bet against Quan going all the way.
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