SAG Awards predictions: Can Brendan Fraser (‘The Whale’) hold off Colin Farrell and Austin Butler?

Brendan Fraser has long been the Oscar front-runner for Best Actor for his performance in “The Whale” as an overweight man reckoning with his past. An important stop along the way is the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which like the Oscars are decided by industry peers. Eight out of the last 10 lead actor champs at the SAG Awards went on to win the Oscar. So will Fraser join their ranks?

As of this writing Fraser is the favorite to win the SAG Award with leading odds of 7/2. He’s backed by eight of the Expert journalists we’ve polled from major media outlets, eight of the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, half of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s SAG Awards, and half of the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine prediction results from the past two years.

But Fraser is the only nomination we’re anticipating for “The Whale.” Likely to have more overall support is “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which is favored to receive three individual acting nominations and is on the bubble for an ensemble cast nom. It’s also a stronger contender than “The Whale” for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars, according to the predictions of thousands of our users. That could help lead actor Colin Farrell here; he ranks second with 39/10 odds with support from three Experts, one of our Editors, five of our Top 24, and five All-Stars.

Just as formidable is Austin Butler (“Elvis“), whose film is also a stronger Best Picture Oscar contender than “The Whale,” though Butler is the only likely nominee from the music biopic at the SAG Awards. Butler is expected to win the Golden Globe Award over Fraser, and right now two Experts, two Editors, six of our Top 24, and five All-Stars think he’ll beat Fraser here too. So while Fraser still looks like the man to beat at these awards, he’s facing at least a couple of rivals well-positioned to do just that.

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