Spirit Awards predictions: Our official odds

The 2023 Independent Spirit Awards are being held on Saturday afternoon, March 4, streamed live on IMDb’s YouTube channel, as well as Film Independent’s YouTube and Twitter accounts. The event will be hosted by comedian Hasan Minhaj, but who will win when prizes are handed out? Thousands of Gold Derby users have placed their bets here in our predictions center. Those predictions were combined to generate our official racetrack odds. Scroll down to see the odds below, with our projected winners highlighted in gold.

The nominees for the Spirit Awards are chosen by committees of film industry insiders, including critics, programmers, producers, directors, writers, cinematographers, editors, and actors, past Spirit Award nominees and winners, and members of Film Independent’s board of directors. But winners are decided by Film Independent members at large. Because membership is open to the public — as long as you pay the organization’s annual dues — the awards tend to be more populist, often favoring the nominees with the highest public profiles.

The top nominee at this event is “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which secured eight bids including Best Feature, Best Director (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) and Best Lead Performance (Michelle Yeoh). The film has been on a roll so far this award season, starting with the top Gotham Award for independent film last fall. More recently it swept the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild Awards, which are especially important because they reflect the will of film industry peers, just like the Oscars do.

The voters for the Spirit Awards aren’t closely aligned with the voting membership of the motion picture academy — though there may be some overlap — but the two groups have agreed multiple times on the best film. For instance, “The Artist” (2011), “12 Years a Slave” (2013), “Birdman” (2014), “Spotlight” (2015), “Moonlight” (2016), and “Nomadland” (2020) prevailed at both events. Could the same thing happen here with “Everything Everywhere All at Once”? See our predictions below, and then make or edit your own forecasts here before winners are announced.

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 29/10
“TAR” — 4/1
“Women Talking” — 9/2
“Bones and All” — 9/2
“Our Father, The Devil” — 5/1

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 57/20
Todd Field, “TAR” — 39/10
Sarah Polley, “Women Talking”
Kogonada, “After Yang” — 9/2
Halina Reijn, “Bodies Bodies Bodies” — 5/1

Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 6/1
Cate Blanchett, “TAR” — 13/2
Paul Mescal, “Aftersun” — 8/1
Mia Goth, “Pearl” — 9/1
Taylor Russell, “Bones and All” — 9/1
Jeremy Pope, “The Inspection” — 19/2
Aubrey Plaza, “Emily the Criminal” — 21/2
Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie” — 21/2
Dale Dickey, “A Love Song” — 13/1
Regina Hall, “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.” — 14/1

Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 11/2
Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway” — 15/2
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 15/2
Nina Hoss, “TAR” — 17/2
Gabrielle Union, “The Inspection” — 17/2
Mark Rylance, “Bones and All” — 9/1
Theo Rossi, “Emily the Criminal” — 21/2
Brian d’Arcy James, “The Cathedral” — 23/2
Trevante Rhodes, “Bruiser” — 14/1
Jonathan Tucker, “Palm Trees and Power Lines” — 14/1

Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 29/10
Frankie Corio, “Aftersun” — 39/10
Gracija Filipovic, “Murina” — 9/2
Lily McInerny, “Palm Trees and Power Lines” — 9/2
Daniel Zolghadri, “Funny Pages” — 9/2

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 82/25
“Women Talking” — 37/10
“TAR” — 39/10
“Catherine Called Birdy” — 9/2
“After Yang” — 9/2

“Aftersun” — 14/5
“The Inspection” — 4/1
“Emily the Criminal” — 4/1
“Murina” — 9/2
“Palm Trees and Power Lines” — 5/1

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” — 59/20
“All That Breathes” — 39/10
“Riotsville, USA” — 9/2
“A House Made of Splinters” — 9/2
“Midwives” — 9/2

“Saint Omer” — 31/10
“Return to Seoul” — 4/1
“Corsage” — 4/1
“Joyland” — 9/2
“Leonor Will Never Die” — 9/2

“TAR” — 3/1
“Aftersun” — 39/10
“Pearl” — 9/2
“Murina” — 9/2
“Neptune Frost” — 9/2

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 59/20
“TAR” — 4/1
“Aftersun” — 9/2
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” — 9/2
“The Cathedral” — 9/2

Be sure to make your Indie Spirit predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced. And join in the fierce debate over the Spirit Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

More News from GoldDerby