At six of the last eight Oscars, Best Cinematography has gone hand-in-hand with Best Director: Claudio Miranda and Ang Lee for “Life of Pi” (2013); Emmanuel Lubezki and Alfonso Cuaron for “Gravity” (2014); Lubezki and Alejandro G. Inarritu for both “Birdman” (2015) and “The Revenant” (2016); Linus Sandgren and Damien Chazelle for “La La Land” (2017); and Cuaron doing double duty on “Roma” (2019). Will that trend hold true this year? (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2021 Oscars predictions for Best Cinematography.)
The academy usually regards award-winning cinematography as pretty pictures within an epic technical feat of filmmaking. While great lighting and framing are laudable on their own, having a movie that looks like it was difficult to shoot goes a long way to snagging an Oscar. Recent lensing winners “Avatar” (2009), “Inception” (2010), “Hugo” (2011), “Life of Pi” (2012), “Gravity” (2013), “Blade Runner 2049” (2018) and “1917” (2020) also took home the Oscar for Best Visual Effects.
While the lensers of “Inception” and “Gravity” first prevailed at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, these precursor prizes do not have a stellar track record at forecasting the Oscar winner. Indeed, since the guild started handing out prizes in 1987, the two groups have agreed only 15 times:
1991: “Dances with Wolves” (Dean Semler)
1996: “Braveheart” (John Toll)
1997: “The English Patient” (John Seale)
1998: “Titanic” (Russell Carpenter)
2000: “American Beauty” (Conrad L. Hall)
2003: “Road to Perdition” (Hall)
2006: “Memoirs of a Geisha” (Dion Beebe)
2008: “There Will Be Blood” (Robert Elswit)
2009: “Slumdog Millionaire” (Anthony Dod Mantle)
2011: “Inception” (Wally Pfister)
2014: “Gravity” (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2015: “Birdman” (Lubezki)
2016: “The Revenant” (Lubezki)
2018: “Blade Runner 2049” (Roger Deakins)
2020: “1917” (Deakins)
Please note: Only those films with confirmed release dates are listed below. Check back often as new contenders are scheduled while others are dropped due to delays or critical reaction.
DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums
UPDATED: March 4, 2021
Leading Contenders
Sean Bobbitt, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)
Erik Messerschmidt, “Mank” (Netflix)
Joshua James Richards, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Tobias A. Schliessler, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix)
Newton Thomas Sigel, “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
Hoyte van Hoytema, “Tenet” (Warner Bros.)
Dariusz Wolski, “News of the World” (Universal Pictures)
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Strong Contenders
Daniel Bouquet, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Paolo Carnera, “The White Tiger” (Netflix)
Shelly Johnson, “Greyhound” (Apple TV+)
Benjamin Kracun, “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features)
Lachlan Milne, “Minari” (A24)
Phedon Papamichael, “Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix)
Tami Reiker, “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
Martin Ruhe, “The Midnight Sky” (Netflix)
Mandy Walker, “Mulan” (Walt Disney Pictures)
PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15
Possible Contenders
Christopher Blauvelt, “Emma” (Focus Features)
Stefan Duscio, “The Invisible Man” (Universal Pictures)
Robert Elswit, “The King of Staten Island” (Universal Pictures)
Matthew Libatique, “The Prom” (Netflix)
Anthony Dod Mantle, “Radioactive” (Amazon Studios)
Zak Nicholson, “The Personal History of David Copperfield” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ben Smithard, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Łukasz Zal, “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” (Netflix)
We will be updating our Oscar predictions for each competitive category often in the days to come so be sure to bookmark this page and keep checking back as the race heats up.
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture: Updated – February 22, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Director: Updated – February 23, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor: Updated – February 24, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress: Updated – February 24, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor: Updated – February 25, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress: Updated – February 25, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay: Updated – February 26, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay: Updated – February 26, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography: Updated – March 4, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design: Updated – March 4, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing: Updated – March 4, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Updated – February 22 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score: Updated – February 10, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song: Updated – February 10, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design: Updated – February 12, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Sound: Updated – March 3, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects: Updated – March 3, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature: Updated – March 3, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature: Updated – February 9, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature: Updated – February 9, 2021
