In three of the last five years, there has been a divide between the winners of Best Picture at the Oscars. Before the academy reintroduced the preferential ballot for Best Picture in 2010, such splits were fairly rare. Since then, they are almost the rule rather than the exception at the Academy Awards having occurred in five of the last 11 years. Why the change? (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2021 Oscars predictions for Best Director.)
The winner of Best Picture is now determined by a weighted ballot while the other 23 races, including Best Director, are decided by a popular vote. While voters simply check one nominee in those other races, when it comes to Best Picture they are asked to rank all the nominees. If one contender garners more than 50% of the first-place votes, it wins. If, however, no nominee crosses that threshold, the film with the fewest first-place votes is eliminated, with its ballots being reapportioned to the second-place pick. This process continues until one nominee reaches 50% plus one vote. The goal, says the academy, is to award the Best Picture award to a consensus choice.
With two different voting systems, it’s easy to understand how this split happens so often. Indeed, it was a fairly common phenomenon between 1934 and 1945, when the Best Picture winner was first chosen by a preferential ballot. “Mutiny on the Bounty” (1936), “The Great Ziegfeld” (1937), “The Life of Emile Zola” (1938), and “Rebecca” (1941) all won Best Picture but their directors lost to John Ford (“The Informer”), Frank Capra (“Mr. Deeds Goes to Town”) Leo McCarey (“The Awful Truth” and Ford (“The Grapes of Wrath”) respectively.
In 2020, the two awards lined up with Boon Joon Ho winning Best Director while his film, “Parasite,” made history as the first film not in the English language to win Best Picture. But the previous year saw a divide with Alfonso Cuaron winning Best Director for “Roma” only to see his film eclipsed in the top race by “Green Book.” That had happened to Cuaron in 2014 as well when he won for “Gravity” but Best Picture went to “12 Years a Slave.” And while Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“The Revenant”) and Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”) all won the Best Director Oscar, their films lost to “Argo” (2013), (2014), “Spotlight” (2016) and “Moonlight” (2017) respectively.
Inarritu also won Best Director for a film that took the top Academy Award: “Birdman” (2015). As with “The Revenant,” this also was a bravura directorial achievement and had strong support throughout the creative categories. Indeed, six of the last eight films that won Oscars for helming also took home the lensing prize. When it comes to Best Director, bigger is better. So, who is making that kind of movie this year?
Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our Best Picture predictions. Only those directors whose films have confirmed release dates are listed below. Check back often as new contenders are scheduled while other are dropped due to delays or critical reaction.
DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums
UPDATED: March 9, 2021
Leading Contenders
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari” (A24 – Winter)
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features – December 25)
David Fincher, “Mank” (Netflix – December 4)
Aaron Sorkin, “Trial of the Chicago 7” (Paramount – September 25)
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures – December 4)
PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15
Strong Contenders
Paul Greengrass, “News Of The World” (Universal – December 25)
Regina King, “One Night in Miami” (Amazon – December 25)
Shaka King, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros. – Winter)
Spike Lee, “Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix – June 12)
Darius Marder, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon – November 20)
Florian Zeller, “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics – December 18)
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s newsletter with experts’ latest predictions
Possible Contenders
Eliza Hittman, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” (Focus Features – March 13)
Francis Lee, “Ammonite” (Neon – November 13)
Christopher Nolan, “Tenet” (Warner Bros. – July 17)
George C. Wolfe, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix – December 18)
Kelly Reichardt, “First Cow” (A24 – March 24)
We will be updating our Oscar predictions for each competitive category often in the days to come so be sure to bookmark this page and keep checking back as the race heats up.
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture: Updated – March 8, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Director: Updated – March 9, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor: Updated – March 6, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress: Updated – March 6, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor: Updated – February 25, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress: Updated – February 25, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay: Updated – February 26, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay: Updated – February 26, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography: Updated – March 4, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design: Updated – March 4, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing: Updated – March 4, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Updated – February 22 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score: Updated – February 10, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song: Updated – February 10, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design: Updated – February 12, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Sound: Updated – March 3, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects: Updated – March 3, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature: Updated – March 3, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature: Updated – February 9, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature: Updated – February 9, 2021
PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
