Predicting the winner of the Best Documentary Feature Oscar will become a lot easier in the new year when the academy announces the 15 films that have made the shortlist. Those semi-finalists are culled from the 150 plus titles that qualify every year for consideration. (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2021 Oscars predictions for Best Documentary Feature.)
To winnow these down to a manageable number, the academy adds newly eligible documentary feature to a virtual screening room available to all 500 plus members of the documentary branch. While all members are encouraged to watch as many of these as they can, one-fifth of the voters are assigned each title. In the new year, each branch member will submit a preferential ballot listing their top 15 choices.
All of these ballots will be collated to determine the 15 semi-finalists. Branch members will then be encouraged to watch those films on this list that they haven’t seen yet before casting another preferential ballot on which they list their top five choices. The resulting five Documentary Feature nominees will be unveiled along with all the other Oscar categories on March 15. All academy voters can cast ballots for the winner of this race, which will be revealed during the Oscar ceremony on April 25.
Usually to be eligible for consideration, a documentary feature usually has to first qualify with week-long runs in Los Angeles and New York City which merited reviews by film critics of leading publications or be screened at certain film festivals. Those requirements have been waived this year, with streaming allowed as a means of qualification.
Fourteen of the films noted below are nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the Critics Choice Awards; in its first four years, the CCDA has predicted 13 of the 20 eventual Oscar nominees and one winner (“O.J.: Made in America” in 2017).
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UPDATED: February 9, 2021
Leading Contenders
“All In: The Fight for Democracy” (Amazon)
Directors: Lisa Cortes, Liz Garbus
“Collective” (Magnolia Pictures/Participant)
Director: Alexander Nanau
“Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution” (Netflix)
Directors: James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham
“Gunda” (Neon)
Directors: Victor Kossakovsky
“MLK/FBI” (IFC Films)
Director: Sam Pollard
“Time” (Amazon)
Director: Garrett Bradley
“Welcome to Chechnya” (HBO)
Director: David France
PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15
Strong Contenders
“Boys State” (Apple TV+)
Directors: Amanda McBaine, Jesse Moss
“Dick Johnson is Dead” (Netflix)
Director: Kirsten Johnson
“The Truffle Hunters” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Directors: Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw
“76 Days” (MTV)
Directors: Weixi Chen, Hao Wu
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Possible Contenders
“The Mole Agent” (Gravitas Ventures)
Director: Maite Alberdi
“Notturno” (21 Unofilm)
Director: Gianfranco Rosi
“My Octopus Teacher” (Netflix)
Directors: Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed
“The Painter and the Thief” (Neon)
Directors: Benjamin Ree, Ingvil Giske
We will be updating our Oscar predictions for each competitive category often in the days to come so be sure to bookmark this page and keep checking back as the race heats up.
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PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15
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