Since the academy expanded the Best Picture category at the Oscars in 2010, Best Original Screenplay has gone to writers of a wide-range of genres: dramas (“Birdman,” “Manchester by the Sea”); comedies (“Midnight in Paris”); biopics (“The King’s Speech,” “Green Book”); true-life stories (“Spotlight”); period pictures (“Django Unchained”); war movies (“The Hurt Locker”); sci-fi (“Her”), thrillers (“Parasite”) and horror (“Get Out”). (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2021 Oscars predictions for Best Original Screenplay and be sure to check out our predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay.)
Regardless of the type of film, a nominee needs broad academy support to win this race. Indeed, all 11 of these most recent Best Original Screenplay winners were, at the least, Best Picture nominees. And six of them won the big prize, bringing the total number of Best Picture champs with Oscar-winning original screenplays to 18. By comparison, 41 films have done this on the adapted side.
In 2019, all five nominees for Best Original Screenplay at the Academy Awards were crafted by writer/directors including the winner, “Parasite,” which also won Best Picture. Expect auteurs to be well-represented in this race once again.
UPDATED: February 26, 2021
Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our Best Picture predictions.
Leading Contenders
“Mank” (Netflix – December 4)
Writer: Jack Fincher
“Minari” (A24 – February 12, 2021)
Writer/Director: Lee Isaac Chung
“Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features – December 25)
Writer/Director: Emerald Fennell
“Soul” (Disney/Pixar – December 25)
Writers: Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers, Tina Fey
“Sound of Metal” (Amazon – November 20)
Writers: Darius Marder (Director), Abraham Marder
“Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix – September 25)
Writer:/Director: Aaron Sorkin
PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15
Strong Contenders
“Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix – June 12)
Writers: Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Spike Lee (Director), Kevin Willmott
“The Forty-Year-Old Version” (Netflix – October 9)
Writer/Director: Radha Blank
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros. – February 12, 2021)
Writers: Shaka King (Director), Will Berson
“Kajillionaire” (Focus Features – September 18)
Writer/Director: Miranda July
“On The Rocks” (A24 – October 2)
Writer/Director: Sofia Coppola
“Tenet” (Warner Bros. – September 3)
Writer/Director: Christopher Nolan
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Possible Contenders
“Ammonite” (Neon – November 13)
Writer/Director: Francis Lee
“The King of Staten Island” (Paramount – June 20)
Writers: Judd Apatow (Director), Pete Davidson
“Never Rarely Sometimes Always” (Focus Features – March 13)
Writer/Director: Eliza Hittman
“Palm Springs” (Neon – July 10)
Writer: Andy Siara
“Supernova” (Bleecker Street – January 29, 2021)
Writer/Director: Harry Macqueen
We will be updating our Oscar predictions for each competitive category often in the days to come so be sure to bookmark this page and keep checking back as the race heats up.
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture: Updated – February 22, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Director: Updated – February 23, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor: Updated – February 24, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress: Updated – February 24, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor: Updated – February 25, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress: Updated – February 25, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay: Updated – February 26, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay: Updated – February 26, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography: Updated – February 12, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Costume Design: Updated – February 12, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing: Updated – February 12, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Updated – February 22 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Score: Updated – February 10, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song: Updated – February 10, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Production Design: Updated – February 12, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Sound: Updated – February 12, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects: Updated – February 10, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature: Updated – February 10, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature: Updated – February 9, 2021
2021 Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature: Updated – February 9, 2021
