The Oscar for Best Visual Effects is particularly tough to predict early on because of the complicated system by which the nominees are determined in three stages. First, the members of the executive committee of the branch cast preferential ballots to determine 20 films for further consideration, which will then be winnowed down to 10 semi-finalists. All members of the branch are invited to a virtual screening of excerpts from these 10 films at which potential nominees may discuss their work. Ballots are counted using a system of re-weighted range voting to determine the five nominees. (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2021 Oscar predictions for Best Visual Effects.)
When it comes to picking the winner of Best Visual Effects, you can’t go wrong with the film that is most reliant on effects to tell its story. Recent winners “Blade Runner 2049” (2018), “The Jungle Book” (2017), “Gravity” (2014), “Life of Pi” (2013), “Avatar” (2010) and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (2009) would have been impossible to make without the advent of computer-generated effects. Titles that blend such CGI with old-school practical effects, such as “1917” (2020), “First Man” (2019), “Interstellar” (2015), “Hugo” (2012), and “Inception” (2011), have also prevailed in recent times.
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UPDATED: March 3, 2021
Leading Contenders
“Birds of Prey” (Warner Bros.)
“Mank” (Netflix)
“The Midnight Sky” (Netflix)
“Soul” (Pixar)
“Tenet” (Warner Bros.)
Strong Contenders
“Mulan” (Disney)
“Welcome to Chechnya” (HBO)
Possible Contenders
“Bloodshot” (Sony Pictures)
“Love and Monsters” (Paramount)
“The One and Only Ivan” (Disney)
We will be updating our Oscar predictions for each competitive category often in the days to come so be sure to bookmark this page and keep checking back as the race heats up.
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