2022 Grammy predictions: Record of the Year [UPDATED: October 1]

The 64th Annual Grammy Awards will take place in 2022 and award music released during the eligibility period of September 1, 2020 through September 30, 2021. So who are the leading contenders for Record of the Year? See our potential favorites, dark horses, and spoilers below. Check back throughout the season as new singles are announced and released and the race takes shape.

Updated: October 1, 2021

Leading Contenders

“Bad Habits” by Ed Sheeran
Album: “Equals”
Label: Asylum
Release Date: June 25, 2021
Producers: Ed Sheeran, Johnny McDaid, Fred Gibson

“Butter” by BTS
Label: Big Hit/Sony Music
Release Date: May 21, 2021
Producers: Rob Grimaldi, Stephen Kirk, Ron Perry

“Damage” by H.E.R.
Album: “Back of My Mind”
Label: RCA
Release Date: October 21, 2020
Producers: Cardiak, Jeff “Gitty” Gitelman

“Drivers License” by Olivia Rodrigo
Album: “Sour”
Label: Geffen/Interscope
Release Date: January 8, 2021
Producer: Daniel Nigro

“Good Days” by SZA
Label: Top Dawg/RCA
Release Date: December 25, 2020
Producers: Carter Lang, Loshendrix, Nascent

“Happier Than Ever” by Billie Eilish
Album: “Happier Than Ever”
Label: Darkroom/Interscope
Release Date: July 30, 2021
Producer: Finneas

“Kiss Me More” by Doja Cat feat. SZA
Album: “Planet Her”
Label: Kemosabe/RCA
Release Date: April 9, 2021
Producers: Rogét Chahayed, Yeti Beats

“Leave the Door Open” by Silk Sonic
Album: “An Evening with Silk Sonic”
Label: Aftermath/Atlantic
Release Date: March 5, 2021
Producers: Bruno Mars, D’Mile

“Montero (Call Me by Your Name)” by Lil Nas X
Album: “Montero”
Label: Columbia
Release Date: March 26, 2021
Producers: Take a Daytrip, Omer Fedi, Roy Lenzo

“Peaches” by Justin Bieber feat. Daniel Caesar and Giveon
Album: “Justice”
Label: Def Jam
Release Date: March 30, 2021
Producers: Harv, Shndo

“Positions” by Ariana Grande
Album: “Positions”
Label: Republic
Release Date: October 23, 2020
Producers: London on da Track, Tommy Brown, Mr. Franks

“Stay” by The Kid LAROI and Justin Bieber
Album: “F*ck Love 3: Over You”
Label: Grade A/Columbia
Release Date: July 9, 2021
Producers: Cashmere Cat, Charlie Puth, Omer Fedi, Blake Slatkin

“Therefore I Am” by Billie Eilish
Label: Darkroom/Interscope
Release Date: November 12, 2020
Producer: Finneas O’Connell

“Willow” by Taylor Swift
Album: “Evermore”
Label: Republic
Release Date: December 11, 2020
Producer: Aaron Dessner

Strong Contenders

“Beautiful Mistakes” by Maroon 5 feat. Megan Thee Stallion
Album: “Jordi”
Label: 222/Interscope
Release Date: March 3, 2021
Producers: Blackbear, Andrew Goldstein

“Body” by Megan Thee Stallion
Album: “Good News”
Label: 1501 Certified/300
Release Date: November 20, 2020
Producer: LilJuMadeDaBeat

“Dakiti” by Bad Bunny feat. Jhay Cortez
Album: “El Último Tour Del Mundo”
Label: Rimas
Release Date: October 30, 2020
Producers: Bad Bunny, Cortez, Tainy, La Paciencia

“Fancy Like” by Walker Hayes
Album: “Country Stuff”
Label: Monument Nashville
Release Date: June 4, 2021
Producers: Walker Hayes, Joe Thibodeau, Shane McAnally

“Forever After All” by Luke Combs
Album: “What You See Ain’t Always What You Get”
Label: River House, Columbia Nashville
Release Date: October 23, 2020
Producers: Luke Combs, Chip Matthews, Jonathan Singleton

“Good 4 U” by Olivia Rodrigo
Album: “Sour”
Label: Geffen/Interscope
Release Date: May 14, 2021
Producer: Dan Nigro

“Holy” by Justin Bieber feat. Chance the Rapper
Album: “Justice”
Label: Def Jam
Release Date: September 18, 2020
Producers: Jon Bellion, Jorgen Odegard, Michael Pollack, Steven Franks, Tommy Brown

“Industry Baby” by Lil Nas X featuring Jack Harlow
Album: “Montero”
Label: Columbia
Release Date: July 23, 2021
Producers: Take a Daytrip, Kanye West

“Justified” by Kacey Musgraves
Album: “Star-Crossed”
Label: MCA Nashville/Interscope
Release Date: August 27, 2021
Producers: Kacey Musgraves, Daniel Tashian, Ian Fitchuk

“Let Me Love You Like a Woman” by Lana Del Rey
Album: “Chemtrails Over the Country Club”
Label: Interscope/Polydor
Release Date: October 16, 2020
Producers: Lana Del Rey, Jack Antonoff

“Levitating” by Dua Lipa feat. DaBaby
Album: “Future Nostalgia”
Label: Warner
Release Date: October 1, 2020
Producers: Koz, Stuart Price

“Lonely” by Justin Bieber and Benny Blanco
Album: “Justice”
Label: Friends Keep Secrets/Def Jam/Interscope
Release Date: October 15, 2020
Producers: Benny Blanco, Finneas O’Connell

“My Universe” by Coldplay and BTS
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Release Date: September 24, 2021
Producers: Max Martin, Oscar Holter, Bill Rahko

“Pay Your Way in Pain” by St. Vincent
Album: “Daddy’s Home”
Label: Loma Vista/Concord
Release Date: March 4, 2021
Producers: Annie Clark, Jack Antonoff

“Permission to Dance” by BTS
Label: Big Hit/Sony
Release Date: July 9, 2021
Producers: Steve Mac, Jenna Andrews, Stephen Kirk

“Rapstar” by Polo G
Album: “Hall of Fame”
Label: Columbia
Release Date: April 9, 2021
Producers: Einer Bankz, Synco

“Right on Time” by Brandi Carlile
Album: “In These Silent Days”
Label: Low Country Sound/Elektra Records
Release Date: July 21, 2021
Producers: Dave Cobb, Shooter Jennings

“Rumors” by Lizzo feat. Cardi B
Label: Atlantic/Nice Life
Release Date: August 13, 2021
Producer: Ricky Reed

“Solar Power” by Lorde
Album: “Solar Power”
Label: Universal
Release Date: June 10, 2021
Producers: Lorde, Jack Antonoff

“Starting Over” by Chris Stapleton
Album: “Starting Over”
Label: Mercury Nashville/Sound
Release Date: August 28, 2020
Producers: Dave Cobb, Chris Stapleton

“34+35” by Ariana Grande
Album: “Positions”
Label: Republic
Release Date: October 30, 2020
Producers: Peter Lee Johnson, Tommy Brown

“Up” by Cardi B
Label: Atlantic
Release Date: February 5, 2021
Producers: Yung Dza, DJ SwanQo, Sean Island

“Way 2 Sexy” by Drake feat. Future and Young Thug
Album: “Certified Lover Boy”
Label: Republic/OVO
Release Date: September 3, 2021
Producers: TM88, Too Dope

“What’s Next” by Drake
Label: Republic/OVO
Release Date: March 5, 2021
Producers: Maneesh, Supah Mario

Possible Contenders

“The Bandit” by Kings of Leon
Album: “When You See Yourself”
Label: RCA
Release Date: January 7, 2021
Producer: Markus Dravs

“Can’t Put It in the Hands of Fate” by Stevie Wonder feat. Rapsody, Cordae, Chika, Busta Rhymes
Label: So What the Fuss/Republic
Release Date: October 13, 2020
Producer: Stevie Wonder

“Cold Heart” by Elton John and Dua Lipa
Label: EMI/Mercury
Release Date: August 13, 2021
Producer: Nicholas Littlemore, Peter Mayes, Sam Littlemore

“Dancing with the Devil” by Demi Lovato
Album: “Dancing with the Devil … the Art of Starting Over”
Label: Island/Republic
Release Date: March 26, 2021
Producer: Mitch Allan

“Deja Vu” by Olivia Rodrigo
Album: “Sour”
Label: Geffen/Interscope
Release Date: April 1, 2021
Producer: Dan Nigro

“Diamonds” by Sam Smith
Album: “Love Goes”
Label: Capitol
Release Date: September 18, 2020
Producers: Shellback, OzGo

“Don’t Go Yet” by Camila Cabello
Album: “Familia”
Label: Epic/Columbia
Release Date: July 23, 2021
Producers: Mike Sabath, Ricky Reed

“Heather” by Conan Gray
Album: “Kid Krow”
Label: Republic
Release Date: September 4, 2020
Producers: Dan Nigro, Jam City

“Kids Again” by Sam Smith
Album: “Love Goes”
Label: Capitol
Release Date: October 30, 2020
Producers: Andrew Watt, Louis Bell

“Life Goes On” by BTS
Album: “BE”
Label: Big Hit/Columbia
Release Date: November 20, 2020
Producer: Pdogg

“Permission to Dance” by BTS
Label: Big Hit/Sony Music
Release Date: July 9, 2021
Producers: Steve Mac, Jenna Andrews, Stephen Kirk

“Pick Up Your Feelings” by Jazmine Sullivan
Album: “Heaux Tales”
Label: RCA
Release Date: November 20, 2020
Producer: DZL

“Shame Shame” by Foo Fighters
Album: “Medicine at Midnight”
Label: RCA
Release Date: November 7, 2020
Producers: Foo Fighters, Greg Kurstin

“Shivers” by Ed Sheeran
Album: “Equals”
Label: Asylum
Release Date: September 10, 2021
Producers: Ed Sheeran, Steve Mac, Fred Again

“Star-Crossed” by Kacey Musgraves
Album: “Star-Crossed”
Label: MCA Nashville/Interscope
Release Date: August 23, 2021
Producers: Kacey Musgraves, Daniel Tashian, Ian Fitchuk

“Streets” by Doja Cat
Album: “Hot Pink”
Label: Kemosabe/RCA
Release Date: January 29, 2021
Producer: Blaq Tuxedo

“Sweet Dream” by Alessia Cara
Label: Def Jam
Release Date: July 15, 2021
Producers: Jason Evigan, Jon Levine, Spencer Stewart

“Telepatia” by Kali Uchis
Album: “Sin Miedo (Del Amor y Otros Demonios)”
Label: Interscope/EMI
Release Date: December 4, 2020
Producers: Tainy, Lara, Albert Hype

“We’re Good” by Dua Lipa
Album: “Future Nostalgia: The Moonlight Edition”
Label: Warner
Release Date: February 11, 2021
Producer: Sly

“Wonder” by Shawn Mendes
Album: “Wonder”
Label: Island
Release Date: October 2, 2020
Producers: Shawn Mendes, Nate Mercereau, Kid Harpoon

“You All Over Me” by Taylor Swift feat. Maren Morris
Album: “Fearless (Taylor’s Version)”
Label: Republic
Release Date: March 26, 2021
Producers: Aaron Dessner, Taylor Swift

“Your Power” by Billie Eilish
Album: “Happier Than Ever”
Label: Darkroom/Interscope
Release Date: April 29, 2021
Producer: Finneas

The award for Record of the Year goes to the recording artist, producers, and engineers of a single or track. It differs from Song of the Year, which only goes to the songwriter. The two categories, however, often go hand-in-hand. In the last 10 years the same song won both prizes five times: “Rolling in the Deep” by Adele (2012), “Stay with Me” by Sam Smith (2015), “Hello” by Adele (2017), “This is America” by Childish Gambino (2019) and “Bad Guy” by Billie Eilish (2020). In 2021 the two categories split, with Eilish winning Record again for “Everything I Wanted” while H.E.R. claimed Song for “I Can’t Breathe.”

With her back-to-back wins for “Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted,” Eilish became the third artist ever to win Record of the Year in consecutive years, following Roberta Flack (“The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face” and “Killing Me Softly with His Song,” 1973-1974) and U2 (“Beautiful Day” and “Walk On,” 2001-2002). Eilish has yet more music eligible for consideration for 2022, as do other recent Grammy winners like Taylor Swift, Megan Thee Stallion, and Dua Lipa.

Two artists are tied for the most nominations in this category: Frank Sinatra and Beyonce have seven apiece. Beyonce and Pharrell Williams are the only performers to receive two Record nominations in the same year: Pharrell in 2014 for “Get Lucky” and “Blurred Lines,” and Beyonce in 2021 for “Black Parade” and “Savage.” In addition to the noteworthy champs mentioned above, the history of this category includes classic winners like Henry Mancini‘s “Moon River,” Simon and Garfunkel‘s “Mrs. Robinson,” Tina Turner‘s “What’s Love Got to Do with It,” Whitney Houston‘s “I Will Always Love You,” and many more. Who do you think will join that auspicious list?

CORRECTION: A previous version of this article mistakenly listed the Grammys eligible period as ending on August 31 instead of the actual September 30.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify record executives and music stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where thousands of showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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