When it comes to predicting the Oscar winner for Best Film Editing, you can’t go wrong by looking for the movie with the most cuts. Past winners “The Bourne Ultimatum” (2008), “Mad Max: Fury Road” (2016) and “Ford v Ferrari” (2020) included high-octane action sequences with frenetic cutting. And a slew of other champs — including “Saving Private Ryan” in 1999, “Black Hawk Down” (2002), “The Hurt Locker” (2010), “Hacksaw Ridge” (2017) and “Dunkirk” (2018) — have been war pictures. (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2021 Oscar predictions for Best Film Editing.)
Oscar voters also embrace film editors who skillfully juggle multiple storylines, as was the case with “Traffic” (2001) and “Crash” (2006). And they like films that expertly inter-cut music with images, such as “Cabaret” (1973), “Chicago” (2003), “Whiplash” (2015), “Bohemian Rhapsody” (2019) and last year’s winner “Sound of Metal.” Special effects extravaganzas like “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2004) and “Gravity” (2014) won by deftly blurring the lines between the real and the fantastic.
Historically, a nomination for film editing was an essential one for the ultimate winner of the big prize. Indeed, 34 films won both awards. Yet the last time the two went hand-in-hand was “Argo” in 2012. The reintroduction of the preferential ballot for Best Picture has changed the dynamic. “Gravity” swept the below-the-line awards but lost the top race to “12 Years a Slave.”
UPDATED: January 23, 2022
Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2022 Oscar Best Picture predictions.
Leading Contenders (ranked by likelihood of winning)
“Dune”: Joe Walker
“Belfast”: Úna Ní Dhonghaíle
“The Power of the Dog”: Peter Sciberras
“West Side Story”: Sarah Broshar, Michael Kahn
“Don’t Look Up”: Hank Corwin
“Nightmare Alley”: Cam McLauchlin
Strong Contenders (alphabetical by title)
“CODA”: Geraud Brisson
“The French Dispatch”: Andrew Weisblum
“House of Gucci”: Claire Simpson
“Licorice Pizza”: Andy Jurgensen
“Spider-Man: No Way Home”: Leigh Folsom Boyd, Jeffrey Ford
“tick, tick … BOOM!”: Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum
Possible Contenders (alphabetical by title)
“Being the Ricardos”: Alan Baumgarten
“King Richard”: Pamela Martin
“The Lost Daughter”: Affonso Goncalves
“No Time to Die”: Tom Cross, Elliot Graham
“Summer of Soul: Joshua L. Pearson
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”: Reginald Jayne, Lucian Johnston
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