2022 Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Since the academy expanded the Best Picture category at the Oscars in 2010, Best Original Screenplay has gone to writers of a wide-range of genres: dramas (“Birdman,” “Manchester by the Sea”); comedies (“Midnight in Paris”); biopics (“The King’s Speech,” “Green Book”); true-life stories (“Spotlight”); period pictures (“Django Unchained”); war movies (“The Hurt Locker”); sci-fi (“Her”), thrillers (“Parasite,” “Promising Young Woman:) and horror (“Get Out”). (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2022 Oscars predictions for Best Original Screenplay)

Regardless of the type of film, a nominee needs broad academy support to win this race. Indeed, all 12 of the most recent Best Original Screenplay winners were, at the least, Best Picture nominees. And six of them won the big prize, bringing the total number of Best Picture champs with Oscar-winning original screenplays to 18. By comparison, 41 films have done this on the adapted side.

In 2021, all five nominees for Best Original Screenplay at the Academy Awards were crafted by writer/directors. Expect auteurs to be well-represented in this race once again.

UPDATED: January 22, 2022

Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2022 Oscar Best Picture predictions.

Leading Contenders (ranked by likelihood of winning)
“Licorice Pizza”: Paul Thomas Anderson
“Belfast”: Kenneth Branagh
“King Richard”: Zach Baylin
“Don’t Look Up”: Adam McKay, David Sirota
“Being the Ricardos”: Aaron Sorkin
“Parallel Mothers”: Pedro Almodóvar

Strong Contenders (alphabetical by title)
“C’mon C’mon”: Mike Mills
“The French Dispatch”: Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola
“A Hero”: Asghar Farhadi
“Mass”: Fran Kranz
“Pig”: Michael Sarnoski, Vanessa Block

Possible Contenders (alphabetical by title)
“Encanto”: Jared Bush, Charise Castro Smith
“The Harder They Fall”: Jeymes Samuel, Boaz Yakin
“Last Night in Soho”: Edgar Wright
“Red Rocket”: Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
“Respect”: Callie Khouri, Tracey Scott Wilson
“Stillwater”: Tom McCarthy, Marcus Hinchey, Thomas Bidegain, Noe Debre

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