The 2023 Screen Actors Guild Award nominations were announced on January 11 in film and television, as voted on by members of the SAG-AFTRA Foundation. Who will prevail in the category of Best Film Actor during Netflix’s YouTube ceremony on Sunday, February 26? This year’s five nominees are Austin Butler (“Elvis”), Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), Bill Nighy (“Living”) and Adam Sandler (“Hustle”).
Scroll down to see Gold Derby’s 2023 SAG Awards Predictions for Best Film Actor, listed in order of their racetrack odds. Our SAG Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of thousands of readers, including Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
SEE SAG Awards nominations: Full list in 6 movie and 9 TV categories
2023 SAG Awards TV Predictions: Best Film Actor
Predicted Winners (in odds order)
1. Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) — 7/2 odds
Fraser makes his big-screen comeback as Charlie, a 600-pound man living alone in his apartment who’s cared for by a family friend, Liz (SAG Award nominee Hong Chau). Despite his dire predicament, Charlie still has a hopeful outlook on life and finds there is beauty in the world. This marks Fraser’s first solo SAG Award bid, though he did win an ensemble prize for “Crash” (2005).
Experts predicting: Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Clayton Davis (Variety), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Tim Gray (Variety)
2. Austin Butler (“Elvis”) — 37/10 odds
Baz Luhrmann‘s biographical music film about the King of Rock ‘n’ Roll made Butler an instant household name when it debuted in June. The young actor sings and dances his way into America’s heart and has been rewarded with nominations at all of the major industry awards. Butler previously competed at the SAG Awards as part of the “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (2019) cast.
Experts predicting: Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Erik Davis (Fandango), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Susan King (Gold Derby), Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Fox TV)
3. Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) — 39/10 odds
Farrell is the only nominee in the category this year who’s also up for the ensemble prize. In fact, “Banshees” earned a leading five bids, tying it with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” as the most-nominated film of the year. The Irish actor plays Pádraic Súilleabháin, a simple man who can’t fathom why his drinking buddy (SAG Award nominee Brendan Gleeson) wants to suddenly end their friendship.
Experts predicting: Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
4. Bill Nighy (“Living”) — 9/2 odds
“Living” tells the story of a Rodney Williams (Nighy), an aging bureaucrat who goes on a bender after receiving a terminal cancer diagnosis. The movie has been universally praised for its acting and its screenplay (written by Kazuo Ishiguro). This marks Nighy’s first individual SAG Award notice, though he did previously contend as a member of “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” (2011) ensemble.
Experts predicting: None
5. Adam Sandler (“Hustle”) — 9/2 odds
Despite having dozens of films under his belt, Netflix’s “Hustle” is the first time Sandler has been recognized by his peers in the Screen Actors Guild. The comedian takes on the dramatic role of Stanley Sugerman, an NBA scout for the Philadelphia 76ers who discovers a diamond in the rough in the form of a young player named Spain (Juancho Hernangómez).
Experts predicting: None
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