The 2023 Screen Actors Guild Award nominations were announced on January 11 in film and television, as voted on by members of the SAG-AFTRA Foundation. Who will prevail in the category of Best Film Supporting Actor during Netflix’s YouTube ceremony on Sunday, February 26? This year’s five nominees are Paul Dano (“The Fabelmans”), Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Nurse”).
Scroll down to see Gold Derby’s 2023 SAG Awards predictions for Best Film Supporting Actor, listed in order of their racetrack odds. Our SAG Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of thousands of readers, including Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
SEE SAG Awards nominations: Full list in 6 movie and 9 TV categories
2023 SAG Awards TV Predictions: Best Film Supporting Actor
Predicted Winners (in odds order)
1. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) — 31/10 odds
Despite acting on and off since he was a child, this marks the first career SAG Award nomination for Quan — actually, he earned two this year as he’s also feted as part of the ensemble. He plays Waymond Wang in The Daniels‘ sci-fi film, the docile husband of laundromat owner Evelyn Quan Wang (SAG Award nominee Michelle Yeoh), as well as more confident versions of Waymond in other dimensions.
Experts predicting: Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Clayton Davis (Variety), Erik Davis (Fandango), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Susan King (Gold Derby), Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
2. Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), — 39/10 odds
Gleeson takes on the role of Colm Doherty in this quirky Martin McDonagh period piece, a man who decides to stop being friends with someone he sees as intellectually inferior, Pádraic Súilleabháin (SAG Award nominee Colin Farrell). Even though he boasts a resume spanning decades, Gleeson’s two bids for supporting actor and ensemble are the first notices he’s ever received from the guild.
Experts predicting: Tim Gray (Variety)
3. Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) — 9/2 odds
The up-and-coming actor is enjoying the best accolades of his career for playing Dominic Kearney, a young man who harbors a crush on Siobhán Súilleabháin (SAG Award nominee Kerry Condon). The scene where he confesses his love to her has been heralded by film buffs as one of the best of the year. Amazingly, the entire four-person “Banshees” ensemble received solo noms as well as cast bids.
Experts predicting: None
4. Paul Dano (“The Fabelmans”) — 9/2 odds
Steven Spielberg‘s semi-autobiographical drama tells the story of his Jewish upbringing and how his love for filmmaking began. Dano takes on the role of Burt Fabelman that’s based on Spielberg’s father. Surprisingly, he’s the only cast member singled out by the guild — though all of them contend in the ensemble race. Dano previously won a SAG Award as a part of the “Little Miss Sunshine” (2006) cast.
Experts predicting: None
5. Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Nurse”) — 9/2 odds
Redmayne goes to truly dark depths for this role as real-life serial killing nurse Charles Cullen in the Netflix psychological drama. It’s a noticeable change of pace for the popular British actor who normally plays heroic figures on the big screen. Redmayne is a two-time SAG Award champion for “The Theory of Everything” (lead, 2014) and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (ensemble, 2020)
Experts predicting: None
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