2023 SAG Awards TV Predictions: Best Drama Actor [Updated February 23]

The 2023 Screen Actors Guild Award nominations were announced on January 11 in film and television, as voted on by members of the SAG-AFTRA Foundation. Who will prevail in the category of Best Drama Actor during Netflix’s YouTube ceremony on Sunday, February 26? This year’s five nominees are Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul”), Jason Bateman (“Ozark”), Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”), Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”) and Adam Scott (“Severance”).

Scroll down to see Gold Derby’s 2023 SAG Awards TV Predictions for Best Drama Actor, listed in order of their racetrack odds. Our SAG Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of thousands of readers, including Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.

SEE SAG Awards nominations: Full list in 6 movie and 9 TV categories

2023 SAG Awards TV Predictions: Best Drama Actor

Predicted Winners (in odds order)

1. Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”) — 16/5 odds

Things are looking S’All Good, Man for Odenkirk to receive a goodbye trophy for AMC’s dearly departed series that left the airwaves after six seasons. In the series finale, Saul Goodman reunites with his one true love Kim Wexler (Rhea Seehorn) after going to jail for a whole host of drug-related crimes. Odenkirk has never won a solo SAG Award before, though he did prevail as a part of “Breaking Bad’s” winning cast in 2014.

Experts predicting: Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Clayton Davis (Variety), Debbie Day (Rotten Tomatoes), Eric Deggans (NPR), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Peter Travers (ABC), Susan King (Gold Derby), Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)

2. Jason Bateman (“Ozark”) — 4/1 odds

If there’s any awards group that can’t get enough of Bateman, it’s the Screen Actors Guild. He is a two-time winner for this same category in 2019 and ’21, and he’s been nominated five additional times for “Ozark,” plus five more for “Arrested Development.” He plays Marty Byrde on the Netflix series that laundered its last dollar last year after four seasons on the air. Notably, his only Emmy Award win for “Ozark” was for directing, not acting.

Experts predicting: Tim Gray (Variety)

3. Adam Scott (“Severance”) — 4/1 odds

This Apple TV Plus sci-fi hit series tells the story of the mysterious Lumon Industries, which requires its employees to undergo memory wipes when they arrive at work so they don’t get distracted. Scott is at his career-best as Mark, a loyal Lumon worker who begins to ask questions he’s not to supposed to be asking shortly after the arrival of Britt Lower‘s Helly. “Severance” also nabbed a SAG ensemble nomination.

Experts predicting: None

4. Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”) — 9/2 odds

Based on Thomas Perry‘s 2017 novel, the FX on Hulu program tells the story of an ex-CIA agent named Dan Chase (Bridges) who is forced to go on the run after killing an intruder in his home. The seven-episode series streamed this summer to great critical and fan acclaim. Bridges previously won an individual SAG Award for “Crazy Heart” (2009), but this marks his first nomination for a television project.

Experts predicting: Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby)

5. Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul”) — 9/2 odds

After working in the business for decades, the character actor has finally earned his first solo SAG Award nomination. He previously earned ensemble bids for his roles in “Breaking Bad,” “Better Call Saul” and “Mudbound.” Banks plays fixer Mike Ehrmantraut on both AMC shows, and he’s nominated for the final season of “BCS” in which he helps mediate problems between the characters played Odenkirk, Giancarlo Esposito and Tony Dalton.

Experts predicting: None

PREDICT the 2023 SAG Awards winners

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