Last year, Jason Sudeikis won the Best Comedy Actor Emmy for playing the titular inspirational soccer coach on Apple’s “Ted Lasso.” The former “SNL” star essentially won that race in a cakewalk, with no serious threats to take him down. This time around is much different. Sudeikis faces off at the 2022 Emmys against two heavyweights that are now tied for second place: Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”) and Bill Hader (“Barry”). The others currently in the Top 7 are Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”), Donald Glover (“Atlanta”), Anthony Anderson (“Black-ish”) and Nicholas Hoult (“The Great”).
Scroll down to see Gold Derby’s Comedy Actor Emmy predictions 2022, listed in order of their racetrack odds. Our Emmy odds are based on the combined forecasts of thousands of readers, including Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting last year’s nominations, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
1. Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”) — 18/5 odds
The Emmy. The Golden Globe. The Critics Choice. The SAG Award. Sudeikis’ awards mantel just keeps getting heavier and heavier. Unless Emmy voters suddenly decide to spread the wealth and let someone else ascend to the podium, our odds-makers suspect Sudeikis will be the latest funnyman to repeat in this category. He would join a list of other recent multiple champs like Hader, Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”), Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”), Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock”) and Tony Shalhoub (“Monk”).
2. Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 9/2 odds
The veteran comedian already has one Emmy to his name for writing “The Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour” (1969), but this would be his first acting trophy. He plays Charles-Haden Savage on the fan-fave comedy, a podcast fanatic and former actor who becomes involved in solving a murder within his own building. In a savvy strategy, Hulu has announced it will stream Season 2 of “Only Murders in the Building” while Emmy voting for Season 1 is going on, which will help keep Martin top of mind as voters mark their ballots.
2. Bill Hader (“Barry”) — 9/2 odds
The last two times “Barry” was eligible at the Emmys (2018 and 2019), Hader won for acting and also reaped bids for producing, directing and writing. Not too shabby. The HBO comedy series about a hitman who yearns to be an actor has been off the air for three years, due in part to Covid-19 but also because Hader wanted to take a break. While it remains to be seen whether Emmy voters still embrace the show as they once did, critics’ reviews for Season 3 are strong, with Variety, RoberEbert.com and The Playlist all giving it a perfect score.
4. Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 13/2 odds
Short is a two-time Emmy champion for writing “SCTV Network 90” (1983) and hosting “A Tribute to Mel Brooks” (2014). Like his buddy Steve Martin, Short is still looking to clutch his first acting trophy. He takes on the role of Oliver Putnam in “Only Murders in the Building,” a struggling Broadway director who comes up with the idea of making a podcast out of the tragedy that’s just taken place at their affluent apartment building. The comedy vet also shares many scenes with his TV son, with whom Oliver has an estranged relationship.
5. Donald Glover (“Atlanta”) — 7/1 odds
FX’s “Atlanta” was actually off the air for four years before it returned in March for Season 3. Glover prevailed in this category four years ago for playing Earnest “Earn” Marks, a college dropout who struggles making ends meet while helping his cousin’s rap career. Like Hader, Glover also reaped Emmy noms for producing, writing and directing for each of the first two seasons. Fun fact: the last person to win Best Comedy Actor after a multi-year break was Kelsey Grammer (“Frasier”), who had a six-year gap between his third win (1998) and his fourth (2004).
6. Anthony Anderson (“Black-ish”) — 14/1 odds
Even though Anderson has yet to win an Emmy after 11 career losses for starring as Andre “Dre” Johnson and producing “Black-ish,” the final season could bring him some much-needed love. Just ask Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”), Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”) and Sarah Jessica Parker (“Sex and the City”), all of whom finally won for their swan songs after repeatedly being skunked. The emotional “Black-ish” series finale aired April 19 on ABC after eight years and 175 episodes.
7. Nicholas Hoult (“The Great”) — 25/1 odds
For the Hulu hit, Hoult has received two nominations apiece at the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes, plus three notices at the SAG Awards (one individual, two ensemble). However, he has yet to be recognized at the Emmys for his hilariously villainous role as Peter III of Russia. The second season focused on Peter’s estranged marriage from Catherine the Great (Elle Fanning) and his infatuation with her visiting mother (guest star Gillian Anderson).
Also watch out for: Don Cheadle (“Black Monday”), Jake Johnson (“Minx”), Rhys Darby (“Our Flag Means Death”), Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”), John Cena (“Peacemaker”) and Ricky Gervais (“After Life”).
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