Will the 2021 Golden Globes predict the Oscars?

The Golden Globes may not share any voters with the academy but over its first 77 years has proven to be a helpful guide when making Oscar predictions. By handing out separate awards for dramas and comedy/musicals, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association doubles its chances of predicting the winners of Best Picture and the lead acting races at the Academy Awards. Yes, the 2021 Golden Globes delivered upsets in several marquee categories. But it is still worth looking back at the most recent ceremonies to see how many of the Golden Globe winners went on to collect Oscars.

In 2020, the HFPA rules relegated the big winner at the Oscars, “Parasite,” to the Foreign Language Film category. That denied this South Korean film by Bong Joon-ho a chance to contend for Best Drama; that race went to its fiercest Oscar rival, “1917.” That film’s helmer, Sam Mendes, won over the HFPA but was bested at the Oscars by Joon-Ho who also won for writing and producing “Parasite.”

All four of the 2020 Oscar winners for acting got a chance to practice their acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes: star players Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”) and Renee Zellweger (“Judy)  and featured performers Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) and Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”). But be warned: the 2020 Globe picks for the best comedy or musical performances — Taron Egerton (“Rocketman) and Awkwafina (“The Farewell”) were snubbed by the actors branch of the academy.

SEE 2021 Golden Globes Winners List: All 25 Categories

In 2019, the HFPA comedy/musical pick, “Green Book” edged out the drama choice “Bohemian Rhapsody” at the Academy Awards. In 2017, the reverse happened when the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama, “Moonlight,” prevailed over the comedy/musical champ “La La Land” at the Oscars.

All four of the 2019 Oscar winners for acting had first won Golden Globes: leads Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) and Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) and supporting players Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”) and Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”). Among those that Colman and Malek defeated at the Academy Awards were the other two lead acting champs at the Globes: Glenn Close (“The Wife”) and Christian Bale (“Vice”).

In 2018, Globe voters went all in on “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which won a leading four awards: Best Drama, Best Drama Actress (Frances McDormand), and Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) and Best Screenplay for director Martin McDonagh. Both performers repeated at the Oscars. But their film fell short in the Best Picture race at the Oscars to “The Shape of Water,” which had taken home just two Globes for director Guillermo Del Toro and composer Alexandre Desplat. They both picked up Oscar bookends.

Gary Oldman won Best Drama Actor at the Globes for his transformation into British Prime Minister Winston Churchill. He won at the Oscars too while the Globe winner on the comedy/musical side, James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”), was snubbed by the academy. Allison Janney won the supporting actress Globe for “I, Tonya” and also prevailed at the Oscars.

In 2017, Casey Affleck won the Globe on the drama side for his leading role in “Manchester by the Sea” while Emma Stone did likewise in comedy/musical for “La La Land.” They both won Oscars as did Globes supporting actress winner Viola Davis (“Fences”). Among those Affleck and Stone edged out at the Oscars were Globe winners Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”) and Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”). The Globe winner for Best Supporting Actor — Aaron Taylor-Johnson (“Nocturnal Animals”) — over, among others, eventual Oscar winner Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”). Taylor-Johnson was snubbed by the academy.

PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15

In 2016, both groups awarded Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”) and Brie Larson (“Room”) for their leading performances (the pair won in drama at the Globes). However, while all of the other Globe champs — “The Revenant” and “The Martian” for best drama and comedy/musical respectively, Matt Damon (“The Martian”) and Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”) for comedy leads, and Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”) and Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”) for supporting — contended at the Oscars a few weeks later, none of them prevailed there.

In 2015, HFPA voters went with “The Grand Budapest Hotel” over eventual Oscar champ “Birdman” for Best Comedy/Musical while on the drama side the Globe went to “Boyhood.” All four of the individual Oscar winners for acting — leads Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”) and Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) as well as supporting players J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), and Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) — picked up prizes from the HFPA first.

In 2014, “12 Years a Slave” won Best Drama over, among others, its closest Oscar rival “Gravity” and went on to claim the Best Picture award as well. Likewise in 2013 when “Argo” won here first over, among others, “Life of Pi,” before prevailing at the Academy Awards.

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