‘Mank’ is the early frontrunner to lead in Oscar nominations: How many will it win?

Mank” is headed for the double digits. The combined predictions of Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors and Users favor the black-and-white biopic for at least 10 nominations, more than any other film in contention. Another Netflix contender “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” trails with seven. “Mank” is expected to bag three trophies: Best Supporting Actress for Amanda Seyfried, Best Cinematography and Best Production Design. Its other anticipated nominations are Best Picture, Best Director for David Fincher, Best Actor for Gary Oldman, Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing and Best Sound.

The Gold Derby predictions center has 14 of the Oscars’ 23 categories available to predict at this time with the contenders in the remaining nine categories dependent on shortlists that are yet to be determined by the academy. Once they are added, “Mank” is likely to be predicted additionally in Best Makeup and Hairstyling and Best Score, given how well it has done in those races with the regional critics’ groups that are in the midst of announcing their nominations and awards. This will bring its predicted total number of nominations to 12.

The film dramatizes the writing of “Citizen Kane,” which received nine Oscar nominations — all in categories in which “Mank” is forecasted to contend. (“Citizen Kane” was not nominated for its costumes, makeup or for Dorothy Comingore‘s role as a fictionalized version of Amanda Seyfried’s real-life character Marion Davies.) “Citizen Kane” won only for its screenplay by Orson Welles and “Mank” namesake Herman J. Mankiewicz.

The only category in which the 1940-set drama is campaigning where Gold Derby is betting on a snub is Best Supporting ActorTom Burke, Charles DanceArliss Howard and Tom Pelphrey each have 100-to-1 odds. Female co-star Emily Collins is similarly a longshot.

Some groups have also nominated “Mank” for Best Visual Effects, which is another category that is not yet accounted for in the predictions center; however, “Mank” ranks outside the top five in that category when considering the critic results aggregately. “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” is only a strong contender in Best Makeup and Hairstyling out of the remaining categories, which would bring its total to eight.

“Joker” led with 11 nominations last year while “The Irishman,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “1917” each reaped 10 bids. This was the first time in the Oscars’ 92-year history that four films reached the double digits simultaneously. A dozen or 13 nominations for “Mank” would make it the most-nominated film in three years, since “The Shape of Water” boasted a tally of a lucky 13, including an eventual win for Best Picture.

Oscars 2021 Best Picture

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