How good are the SAG Awards at predicting the four acting winners at the Oscars?

Odds are that three of the four individual film winners — leads Will Smith (“King Richard”) and Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) plus supporting players Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) and Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”) — at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on February 27 will be collecting Oscars one month later on March 25. Over the past 27 years, 79 of the 108 Academy Awards winners in the four acting races had first collected SAG Awards. That success rate of 73% makes these precursors a bellwether to follow when making your Oscar predictions.

The results of the four races at both the SAG and Academy Awards breakdown as follows:

Best Actor: 21 of the SAG winners went on to win Oscars (plus Benicio del Toro who prevailed in supporting at Oscars for “Traffic”). Last year Chadwick Boseman prevailed here for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” but the late actor lost at the Oscars to Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”). Prior to that there had been three repeat winners in a row: Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) and Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”). In 2017, Denzel Washington had ended a 12-year streak when he won at SAG for “Fences” but lost at the Oscars to Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”).

Best Actress: 19 of the SAG winners went on to victory at the Academy Awards. Last year Viola Davis won with the guild for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” but lost at the Oscars to Frances McDormand (“Nomadland). Previously McDormand had been the last of previous six SAG champs in a row to pull off this double act when she won in 2018 for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

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Best Supporting Actor: 18 of the SAG choices also added an Oscar to their mantle, including last year’s dual victor Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Messiah”).

Best Supporting Actress: 19 of the SAG choices were also those of the academy (plus Kate Winslet who won in lead at Oscars for “The Reader”). Last year Youn Yuh-jung (“Minari”) prevailed here first before winning at the Oscars.

Historically, the likeliest outcome is that three of the winners at the SAG Awards will repeat at the Oscars. That has happened 11 years in the past 27 years. The 2020 perfect record of 4 for 4 has occurred just eight times. The guild has batted .500 on five occasions and been off the mark in three of the four races another three. It has never been completely wrong.

Be sure to make your SAG Awards film winners predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before the ceremony on February 27. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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