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News & Politics Thread (Part 5)

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    mellobruce
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    #1203564425

    The Man who Correctly Predicted President Trump’s 2016 Win Predicts President Trump has a 91% Chance of Being Reelected in 2020

    Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University told Lou Dobbs on August 16th, 2016, that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential election.

    Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University.  His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.We reported that his 2016 forecast rested on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.

    Helmut joined Lou Dobbs again tonight to discuss the 2020 election. He gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 Presidential election.

    Helmut said that he never saw an individual win an election who placed 5th in New Hampshire (Biden). He also said that President Trump did very well in the primaries this year while Biden didn’t do anything until he won South Carolina.

     

     

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    DS0816
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    #1203567313

    ‘Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout’

    By Harry Enten | July 4, 2020
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/politics/partisan-polls-analysis/index.html

    (CNN) — Whenever I hear an operative complain about public polling, I have just one thing to say: Put up or shut up. Release your own numbers that show the race in a different place than the public polling, or let the public polling stand. This is especially true in House races, where public polling is limited and there’s a real chance to shape the conventional wisdom.

    Perhaps, it’s not surprising then that when one party puts out a lot more internal polls than normal, it is good for their side. Parties tend to release good polling when they have it. Since 2004, there has been a near perfect correlation (+0.96 on a scale from -1 to +1) between the share of partisan polls released by the Democrats and the November results.

    Right now, Democrats and liberal groups are releasing a lot more surveys than Republicans, which suggests the public polling showing Democrats doing well is backed up by what the parties are seeing in their own numbers.

    Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That’s a very bad ratio for Republicans.

    Interestingly, Republicans were the ones dominating the polling landscape in the first quarter of the year. From January through March, Republican and conservative groups released 10 polls compared with the Democrats’ 2.

    The April turning point lines up well with when the coronavirus pandemic became the headline story of the year. It’s when President Donald Trump’s approval rating started an almost continuous decline that remains unabated.

    In other words, it makes a lot of sense that Democrats started to dominate the House polling landscape in the past few months. They had a lot of good news for their side that they wanted out in the public. Republicans, meanwhile, were likely seeing numbers that wouldn’t make them look good.

    Now, you might be wondering whether statewide internal polling is showing the same thing. Presidential elections are mostly won on the state level, after all. Unfortunately, the presidential campaigns aren’t putting out their own data, and partisan statewide polls have less of a chance to shape the narrative because there are so many public polls. Still, there are some outside groups that are releasing data, and we’re largely seeing the same picture as the district data portrays.

    Since April, Democratic or liberal groups have released 30 statewide polls in the presidential race. Republicans have put out a mere 13. That means the Democratic share of statewide internal polls has been 70%.

    All but four of the nine conservative or Republican sponsored polls have been from monthly Restoration PAC releases. And if anything, the polls that this group sponsors have been some of the worst for Trump recently.

    This reminds me a lot of what happened just two years ago. Almost universally, Democrats were the ones publishing their House polls publicly. They went on to have a net gain of 40 seats in the House. Democrats also won the House popular vote by 9 points.

    Indeed, the 2018 example speaks to a larger pattern going back since 2004. Although Democrats tend to publish more internal polls publically, they do very well when that advantage is overwhelming.

    When Democrats put out 70% or more of the internal House polls, there is a big swing in their direction in terms of the popular vote. Since 2004, Republicans have never published 70% or more of the internal House polls. The only time there was anything close to this on the their (2010), they picked up more House seats than in any election in the last 70 years.

    When Democrats put out around 60% of the internal House polls, the national environment is usually fairly unchanged from the prior election.

    Anything less and Republicans are likely going to do well, such as the aforementioned 2010 election when Democrats share of the internal House polls released publicly was a mere 35%.

    Democrats would definitely take a political environment that is mostly the same as it was in 2018. The numbers out recently suggest it could be even better for them. They point to a national political environment in which they’re favored by double digits.

    For Republicans, something needs to change or they’re going to get blown out come November.

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    mellobruce
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    #1203569622

    GREAT NEWS! Number of Coronavirus Deaths Down to Lowest Levels Since Beginning of Pandemic     (Update: Sunday’s Results Even Lower)

    The number of coronavirus related deaths in the US on the 4th of July reached the lowest numbers since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic back in March. On Saturday July 4th the number of cases recorded dropped to 254 deaths.

    This is great news for America as the number of deaths is decreasing daily.
    However, the story in the corrupt liberal media is that the number of cases is increasing.   Cases are irrelevant, deaths are relevant.

    It’s long past time to open up the US economy (and the Canadian economy as well).

     

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    mellobruce
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    #1203569740

    Enthusiasm trouble? Not for Trump’s campaign

    By Corey Lewandowski
    Real Clear Politics

    It’s almost as if the television talking heads and Washington’s professional political class learned nothing after their 2016 Election Night trauma. While then-candidate Donald Trump packed arenas and dominated television ratings, pundits and pollsters dismissed the very real, on-the-ground grassroots support and enthusiasm for Donald Trump.

    Just more than four months out from Election Day 2020, we are seeing a similar pattern. President Trump continues to draw huge ratings and massive enthusiasm, while Democratic presumptive nominee and 44-year career politician Joe Biden remains hidden away in his basement.

    The historic levels of enthusiasm behind President Trump’s re-election stand in stark contrast to the tepid support for Biden. This is the single most important indicator at this stage in the race.

    A second critical point to make at this stage in the election concerns polling. The public polling that the media relies upon in their reporting is based on cheaper, inferior methods that skew the results to the point that they are effectively useless for predicting results.

    President Trump attracted record-breaking support in the 2020 primary elections when compared to recent incumbent presidents seeking re-election. In fact, President Trump received more votes than former President Barack Obama in 23 of the 27 states which have held primaries in both 2020 and 2012 — the year Obama ran for re-election.

    The president isn’t just outpacing Obama, but also former President George W. Bush. In many cases, President Trump is outpacing the former presidents by two- and three-fold. He has already received over two million more votes than his total in the 2016 primaries, setting a record for most votes ever cast for an incumbent president. He has actually set dozens of records for votes cast for incumbent presidents in state party primaries and has won over 94% of all votes cast in the GOP primary.

    By contrast, Biden and his campaign are still struggling to inspire the base — in fact, they’re struggling to even build a base. It is important to remember that Bernie Sanders became the last Biden challenger to exit the race on April 8. In the three months since, 18 states and the District of Columbia have held primary elections and the results reveal massive problems with the former vice president’s ability to turn out voters.

    In primary after primary, a significant number of Democrats cast votes for someone other than their own party’s presumed nominee. These voters are clearly rejecting Biden as a viable option, yet the media hasn’t heard them.

    Despite being unopposed by any of the active candidates, Biden earned barely half of the vote in some of the primary contests. It’s clear that Democrats are not flocking to a career politician who has been a central part of the very Washington, D.C. political system that voters opposed in 2016 and are doing so again.

    It is painfully clear to Joe Biden’s handlers that he cannot defend his failed legislative record that decimated American working families and destroyed urban communities. From his key role in passing the 1994 crime bill, which unfairly targeted young black men, to his support of normalizing trade with China, Biden’s political career has been absolutely atrocious for Americans whether they’re from cities, Main Street, or farms.

    And with the current defund-the-police movement by the radical left, Biden is going to lose his soft support from voters who long to see him strongly denounce this radical idea to dismantle the police.

    Joe Biden’s limited support in his own party’s primary does not stop there. The lack of enthusiasm will haunt him come November when turnout is critical.

    Voters must want to vote and must support a specific candidate. In truth, there is little debate that President Trump has a decided advantage in base enthusiasm. Trump voters would chew on glass, if necessary, to vote for President Trump. He has worked hard to put America first and deserves another four years in office to continue to deliver.

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    mellobruce
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    #1203571405

    Lawyer For Epstein Victims’ Says Ghislaine Maxwell May Kill Herself Or ‘Be Silenced’ In Jail

    A lawyer for several Jeffrey Epstein victims’ has predicted that Ghislaine Maxwell will either kill herself or “be silenced” in jail.

    Attorney Spencer Kuvin said “I think she knows way too much information….I just have this gut feeling….I don’t think she is going to get out of jail alive”

    “It may be that she can’t handle the fear of what’s going to happen to her and takes matters into her own hands or there will be people who are very afraid of what she has to say” Kuvin added.

    Maxwell is reportedly being closely monitored at the Merrimack County Jail in New Hampshire where she is currently on on suicide watch. She is expected to appear in court on Friday.

    Florida-based Kuvin represents several women who claim Epstein sexually assaulted and raped them when they were teens.

    He told DailyMail.com: ‘I don’t think she is going to get out of jail alive. I said the same thing about Jeffrey Epstein and people laughed at me.

     

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    mellobruce
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    #1203571522

    “The vulgar crowd always is taken by appearances, and the world consists chiefly of the vulgar.”
    ― Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince

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    mellobruce
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    #1203571575

    SUPPORT HONG KONG

    There is no moral ethical way not to SUPPORT HONG KONG

    What is wrong with you people?

    “Yet many of the woke champions on the left in America, like so many NBA players led by Lebron James, turn a blind eye to their crimes”.  The NBA has been particularly careful about not wanting to offend the Chinese Communist Party, since China is a profitable market for the NBA.

    Human Rights are nothing compared to the almighty $$$$$$….

    hypocrites and parasites!  everywhere

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    mellobruce
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    Leftists Turn Against Noam Chomsky After He And Others Pen Letter Encouraging Open Debate And Dialogue

    You know the modern day leftist movement has gone off the rails when they attack Marxist hero Noam Chomsky.

    The world renown philosopher joined a gaggle of other notable luminaries in penning a letter calling out the closed minded left for intolerance and cancel culture, and instead encouraging more open debate and dialogue.

    The letter reads in part:

    The free exchange of information and ideas, the lifeblood of a liberal society, is daily becoming more constricted. While we have come to expect this on the radical right, censoriousness is also spreading more widely in our culture: an intolerance of opposing views, a vogue for public shaming and ostracism, and the tendency to dissolve complex policy issues in a blinding moral certainty. We uphold the value of robust and even caustic counter-speech from all quarters. But it is now all too common to hear calls for swift and severe retribution in response to perceived transgressions of speech and thought.

    The deranged leftists can’t stand for that, so now they are revolting against the man who pretty much grandfathered modern Marxist ideology and is largely responsible for what the deranged left has morphed into.

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    mellobruce
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    THE DEBATE OF THE CENTURY

    The first presidential debate, when the incumbent President Trump will face off against Joe Biden, will be held on Tuesday, September 29 at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.

    The political gift that the pandemic has been for Joe Biden can’t possibly be overstated, and there is no more evidence of that than New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman’s latest piece advising him against participating in any of the debates during the general election.

    I’m old enough to remember 2016 when the national media wondered in a panic whether Donald Trump would skip the general election debates against Hillary Clinton, suggesting he didn’t have the nerve to have a face-off with the Democratic nominee. Now here’s one of the New York Times’s most prominent writers practically begging Biden not to confront Trump.

    “That is not a good way for Biden to reintroduce himself to the American people,” wrote Friedman on Tuesday. “And, let’s not kid ourselves, these debates will be his reintroduction to most Americans, who have neither seen nor heard from him for months if not years.”

    That’s quite the endorsement from someone who spends nearly every column telling his readers how awful the president is.

    But, of course, Friedman can’t say the obvious — that Biden might crater facing off against Trump because he performed miserably in every one of the Democratic primary debates. So instead, Friedman cooked up an excuse the former vice president could use to decline participation.

    “I worry about Joe Biden debating Donald Trump,” wrote Friedman, once again showing the great confidence he has in Biden’s candidacy.

    And well he should worry.

    If the debates actually happen, it’s Goodbye Joe.

     

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    Atypical
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    The Supreme Court just shut the door on seeing Trump’s taxes before the election

    (CNN) Legally, Thursday was a very bad day for Donald Trump — as the Supreme Court ruled against his efforts to block the turning-over of his financial documents to a New York grand jury, which could lead to major problems for him once he leaves office.

    Politically, however, Thursday was a pretty darn good day for Trump — as it cemented the fact that the public isn’t going to get a look at his tax returns before the November election. The court rejected the US House’s attempt to get a look at Trump taxes, which would have ensured they would have leaked publicly and, even in the case of the New York grand jury, the court remanded it back to a lower court — meaning that Trump isn’t giving his financial records to anyone just yet.

    These twin rulings avoid an election doomsday scenario for Trump: The public release of a detailed look at his financial history before he faces voters for a second time. Trump is — and will remain — the lone major party presidential candidate (or president) to release zero past tax returns. (Joe Biden released his 2017 and 2018 tax returns last summer.) Which in the live-to-fight-another-day worldview of Trump is a win. Trump has long used the legal system to delay unsavory outcomes for him. This is that.

    If that seems counterintuitive, it’s largely because of the complicated nature of the two cases that the court ruled on Thursday. The cases were similar, but not the same. And they carried differing stakes for Trump.

    In the New York case — Trump v. Vance — the subpoena of the President’s tax returns was specifically regarding an ongoing grand jury investigation looking into whether Trump or the Trump Organization violated state laws in connection with hush money payments made to two women (Karen McDougal and Stormy Daniels) during the run-up to the 2016 election. Both women alleged that Trump had conducted extramarital affairs with them.

    The investigation has also looked into whether business records filed with the state were falsified and if any tax laws were violated, CNN has reported. The Court ruled that Trump was not covered by presidential immunity, and therefore, had to turn over the subpoenaed documents — although they remanded the case, meaning that the turn-over won’t happen immediately. And even if Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance does eventually get the tax records, which now seems very likely, it will be in the context of a grand jury investigation. And it’s a very big no-no to leak grand jury evidence.

    In the Congress case — Trump v. Mazars — the issue was whether members of Congress had the right to see Trump’s taxes and financial documents in pursuit of an investigation into whether conflict-of-interest and disclosure laws needed to be amended or updated. Had the Court ruled in favor of Congress, the details of Trump’s financial history would have definitely been made public — since Congress leaking things is, um, a practice as old as time itself.

    So, what the Court did is make it very likely that a grand jury may, at some point, see Trump’s tax history. And that Congress won’t — at least no time soon.

    Add it all up then and that’s a very good thing for Trump, who has fought tooth-and-nail for years not to let the public see any details of his past financial life.

    It, of course, wasn’t always this way.

    “We’re working on that now,” Trump said in late January 2016 of the release of his past taxes. “I have big returns, as you know, and I have everything all approved and very beautiful and we’ll be working that over in the next period of time.”

    But sometime between late January and mid-February 2016 — the space of just a few weeks — Trump had begun to change course.

    “You don’t learn anything from a tax return,” he said at a GOP debate in February 2016. “I will say this. Mitt Romney looked like a fool when he delayed and delayed and delayed and Harry Reid baited him and Mitt Romney didn’t file until a month and a half before the election and it cost him bigly. … As far as my return, I want to file it except for many years, I’ve been audited every year. Twelve years or something like that. Every year they audit me, audit me, audit me. … I will absolutely give my return but I’m being audited now for two or three [years’ worth] now so I can’t.”

    And that was it. Trump has spent the last several years insisting that he can’t release his taxes because he is under audit by the IRS. (Call the Guinness Book of World Records because this has to be the longest audit on record!).

    Of course, there is no law that bars Trump from releasing his returns. In fact, there is precedent for a president — say that 10 times fast! — to do so. Seeking to knock down the idea that he was a crook, Richard Nixon released his tax returns, while in office, in 1973. So it’s not that Trump can’t release his returns under audit. It’s that he doesn’t want to.

    (The other main reason offered by Trump’s allies for his refusal to turn over his returns is that no one cares to see them. The most outspoken advocate of this position is White House counselor Kellyanne Conway. “We litigated this all through the election. People didn’t care,” she said way back in early 2017. “They voted for him, and let me make this very clear: Most Americans are very focused on what their tax returns will look like while President Trump is in office, not what his look like.”)

    The reality is that, at some point in early 2016 as it became clear to Trump and his cohort that he might actually be the Republican nominee, a decision was made that whatever was in the returns was more damaging than the negative press he would take for not releasing any documentation of his financial background. What could that be? While some speculate that his returns would show debt to foreign banks, I tend to think that the more likely explanation is that tax returns would reveal that he paid zero (or close to it) in taxes for years — thanks to loopholes in the tax code.

    It’s also possible that the returns would be embarrassing for Trump, showing that he is less wealthy than he has boasted to be and that his business empire is a bit of smoke and mirrors. (I wrote about all the reasons Trump might not want his taxes public here.)

    Regardless of the reasons, Trump badly wants to keep them from the public — ideally forever, but practically speaking, until after the election. And the Supreme Court on Thursday virtually ensured that Trump gets that wish. Which, in his book, is a win.

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    DS0816
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    #1203578412

    ‘Trump’s America Is Slipping Away’

    He’s trying to assemble a winning coalition with a dwindling number of sympathetic white voters.

    By Ronald Brownstein | July 9, 2020
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/trumps-bad-bet-white-christian-america/613954/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

    Donald Trump is running for the presidency of an America that no longer exists.

    Trump in recent weeks has repeatedly reprised two of Richard Nixon’s most memorable rallying cries, promising to deliver “law and order” for the “silent majority.” But in almost every meaningful way, America today is a radically different country than it was when Nixon rode those arguments to win the presidency in 1968 amid widespread anti-war protests, massive civil unrest following the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., white flight from major cities, and rising crime rates. Trump’s attempt to emulate that strategy may only prove how much the country has changed since it succeeded.

    Americans today are far more racially diverse, less Christian, better educated, more urbanized, and less likely to be married. In polls, they are more tolerant of interracial and same-sex relationships, more likely to acknowledge the existence of racial discrimination, and less concerned about crime.

    Almost all of these changes complicate Trump’s task in trying to rally a winning electoral coalition behind his alarms against marauding “angry mobs,” “far-left fascism,” and “the violent mayhem we have seen in the streets of cities that are run by liberal Democrats.” The Americans he is targeting with his messages of racial resentment and cultural backlash are uniformly a smaller share of American society now than they were then.

    Not all of the country’s changes present headwinds for Trump. The population is older now, and older white voters in particular remain a receptive audience for Trump’s messages of cultural and racial division (even if his mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak has notably softened his support among them). Fifty years ago, southern evangelicals still mostly leaned toward the Democratic Party; now they have become a pillar of the Republican coalition. And while many northern white Catholics back then might have recoiled from Trump-style attacks on immigrants as a smear on their own heritage, now “when Trump talks about making America great again,” more of them “see themselves as part of that country that is getting protected,” says Robert P. Jones, the founder and chief executive of the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute and the author of White Too Long, a new book on Christian churches and white supremacy.

    Together, those shifts have solidified for Republicans a much more reliable advantage among white voters without a college education than they enjoyed in Nixon’s era. Like Trump, who once declared “I love the poorly educated,” Nixon recognized that he was shifting the GOP’s traditional class basis. On “tough problems, the uneducated are the ones that are with us,” Nixon told his White House advisers, according to David Paul Kuhn’s vivid new book about the blue-collar backlash in that era, The Hardhat Riot. “The educated people and the leader class,” Nixon continued, “no longer have any character, and you can’t count on them.”

    Trump might echo both of those assessments. But he is offering them to a very different audience. The demographic shifts that have most reshaped politics since Nixon’s day sit at the crossroads of race, education, and religion.

    From the 2016 GOP primaries forward, white voters without a college education have provided Trump’s largest group of loyalists. In the 1968 presidential election, that group comprised nearly 80 percent of all voters, according to post-election surveys by both the Census Bureau and the University of Michigan’s American National Election Studies. White Americans holding at least a four-year college degree represented about 15 percent of voters, with nonwhite Americans, almost all of them Black, comprising the remainder, at just under 10 percent. (The Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz analyzed the ANES data for me.)

    That electorate is unrecognizable now. The nonpartisan States of Change project has forecast that non-college-educated white Americans will likely constitute 42 percent of voters in November, slightly more than half their share in 1968. States of Change anticipates that both college-educated white voters and voters of color will represent about 30 percent of voters in 2020. For the former group, that’s about twice their share in 1968; for the latter, that’s somewhere between a three- and fourfold increase.

    The change is just as dramatic when looking at the nation’s religious composition. White Christians comprised fully 85 percent of all American adults in 1968, according to figures from Gallup, provided to me by the senior editor Jeffrey M. Jones. They now represent only half as much of the population, 42 percent, according to PRRI’s latest national figures.

    The groups that have grown since then reflect the nation’s increasing racial and religious diversity. In 1968, nonwhite Christians represented only 8 percent of Americans; now that’s tripled to just more than 24 percent in the PRRI study. Most explosive has been the growth of those who identify as secular or unaffiliated with any religious tradition. They represented just 3 percent of Americans in 1968; now it’s 24 percent.

    Other shifts in society’s structure since that era are equally profound. Census Bureau reports show that a much smaller share of adults are married now than they were then. Only about half as many Americans live in small-town or rural communities outside of major metropolitan areas. The portion with at least some college experience is about triple its level then.

    Across all of these dimensions, the consistent pattern is this: The groups Trump hopes to mobilize—non-college-educated, nonurban, married, and Christian white voters—have significantly shrunk as a share of the overall society in the past 50 years. The groups most alienated from him include many of the ones that have grown over those decades: college-educated white people, people of color, seculars, singles, and residents of the large metro areas.

    Trump faces two other big challenges in channeling Nixon. One is that the crime rate, especially the rate of violent crime, doesn’t provide as compelling a backdrop for a law-and-order message as it did during the 1960s. The overall violent-crime rate increased by more than 50 percent just from 1964 to 1968, en route to doubling by the early 1970s. Robberies per person more than doubled from 1960 to 1968. The murder rate soared by 40 percent from 1964 to 1968; by 1972, it was nearly 85 percent higher than in 1964. In Gallup surveys from September 1968, 13 percent of college-educated white voters, 11 percent of non-college-educated white voters, and 9 percent of nonwhite voters identified crime as the biggest problem facing the nation.

    Today, overall crime rates are much lower, a change that’s made possible the revival of central cities around the country. After violent crime peaked in 1991, it declined fairly steadily for about 15 years. It’s proved more volatile over the past decade: The violent-crime rate fell from 2008 to 2014, then rose through 2016 and has dipped again since. As Trump did in 2016, with his dark warnings about “American carnage” following the uptick in crime late in Barack Obama’s second term, he is again using recent findings of elevated murder rates in some cities to raise the specter of Democrats unleashing a new crime surge. “Despite the left-wing sowing chaos in communities all across the country … and the heart breaking murders in Democrat controlled cities like Chicago, New York City, and Atlanta, Joe Biden has turned his back on any semblance of law and order,” the Republican National Committee warned in a press release yesterday morning.

    But James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University, said that any crime spikes this year amount to “short-term fluctuation [in] a long-term trend” toward greater safety. “We’ve enjoyed, really since the early 1990s, a decline in crime,” he told me. “From year to year, some cities see decreases, some see increases, [but] there’s no crime wave … although Trump may want to construct one—a trumped-up one.”

    Though polls generally show that concern about crime hasn’t fallen as fast as crime itself, Americans haven’t entirely missed this long-term trajectory: In June Gallup polling, just 3 percent of adults cited crime as the nation’s top problem, far less than in 1968.

    Trump’s other big obstacle is that racial attitudes have shifted since then. That’s partly because people of color represent such a larger share of American society. But it’s also because college-educated and secular white Americans, who tend to hold more inclusive views on racial issues than non-college-educated and Christian white Americans, are also a bigger portion of the white population. Gallup polling in 1968 consistently documented a high level of white anxiety about the pace of racial change: Almost half of white Americans said the federal government was moving too fast to promote integration; two-thirds said Black people did not face discrimination in hiring; and, most striking, a bristling three-fifths majority supported a policy of shooting looters on sight during riots. On each front, college-educated white people were less likely to express conservative views than those without degrees, but even they split about evenly on these questions.

    A half century later, racism remains ever present in America. But many more white people appear willing to acknowledge its persistence, especially in the national debate that has followed the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. A recent Monmouth poll found that most white people now agree [that] police are more likely to use deadly force against Black people, while CNN found that most white people agree that the criminal-justice system is biased. And although Trump has called Black Lives Matter “a symbol of hate,” three-fifths of white people expressed support for the movement in a June Pew Research Center poll. White people with a college degree were consistently more likely than those without one to express such liberal views on race, but these perspectives claimed significant support among non-college-educated white Americans as well.

    Those attitudes point toward a final key difference from 1968. Back then, many anxious white voters genuinely believed Nixon could deliver law and order; but today, many white Americans, especially those with degrees, have concluded that Trump himself is increasing the risk of lawlessness and disorder. In one particularly striking result, Quinnipiac University last month found that college-educated white people were twice as likely to say that having Trump as president made them feel less safe rather than more safe. That’s a very different equation than Nixon faced: Though he may have considered “the uneducated” the most receptive audience for his hard-line messages, he overwhelmingly won college-educated white voters too, carrying about two-thirds of them in both of his victories, according to the ANES. Some recent polls have shown Trump carrying only one-third of them now.

    Trump still has an audience for his neo-Nixonian warnings about an approaching wave of disorder: In that same Quinnipiac survey, a solid plurality of white voters without a degree said they feel safer with Trump as president (even though many blue-collar white people have also expressed unease about his response to the protests). In a PRRI poll last year, majorities of white Protestants, Catholics, and especially evangelicals said discrimination against white people was as big a problem as bias against minorities. Yet both of these groups—working-class and Christian white voters—will each likely comprise only about half as many of the voters in November as they did when Nixon prevailed five decades ago.

    Those numbers won’t become any more favorable for Republicans in the years ahead: Although white Americans accounted for four-fifths of the nation’s total population growth from 1960 through 1968, the demographer William Frey noted in a recent report that all of the nation’s population growth since 2010 has been among people of color; the final 2020 Census, he concludes, will likely find that this has been the first decade ever when the absolute number of white people in the country declines. The shift in the nation’s religious composition is as unrelenting: Jones says that the share of adults in their 20s who identify as secular grew from 10 percent in 1986 to 20 percent in 1996 to nearly 40 percent in PRRI’s latest study. Only one-fourth of adults younger than 30 now identify as white Christians.

    Trump hopes that reprising Nixon-style messages about disorder will allow him to mobilize massive margins and turnout among the white voters who feel threatened by these changes. But the country’s underlying evolution shows how narrow a path Trump has chosen. He is betting the Republican future on resurrecting a past that is dissolving before his eyes.

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    Atypical
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    5 takeaways from primary elections and runoffs in Texas, Alabama, and Maine

    Washington (CNN) President Donald Trump will be able to claim victory after a pair of down-ballot contests Tuesday evening where two high-profile Republican candidates he supported prevailed in primary races.

    Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions came up short in a fight for his political life. Democrats picked their candidate to take on Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the fall, and Trump’s former physician Ronny Jackson won a GOP primary runoff for a Texas congressional seat.

    Jeff Sessions loses to Trump-backed GOP opponent in Alabama

    Sessions lost a US Senate GOP primary runoff to former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, CNN projects, a major blow to the former attorney general, who had faced fierce opposition to his candidacy from the President.

    Tuberville, who was endorsed by the President, will now advance to the general election as the Republican candidate set to take on incumbent Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in November. The race is likely to be the Republican Party’s best pickup opportunity of the cycle.

    Jones, who pulled off an upset in the deep red state in a 2017 special election, is widely viewed as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat facing reelection in 2020.

    The outcome of Tuesday’s GOP runoff race marks a significant political defeat for Sessions, who had been fighting to reclaim a Senate seat that he had previously held.

    Sessions was the first US senator to endorse Trump in the 2016 presidential race and was once a prominent figure in the Trump administration as the top official leading the Justice Department.

    But he fell out of favor with the President and became a target of Trump’s attacks after he recused himself while serving as attorney general from the FBI probe into Russian interference in the 2016 campaign.

    Sessions became an underdog in the fight for his old job after losing the support of the President.

    Trump was quick to celebrate the victory by his candidate of choice on Tuesday night, tweeting, “Tommy Tuberville WON big against Jeff Sessions. Will be a GREAT Senator for the incredible people of Alabama. @DougJones is a terrible Senator who is just a Super Liberal puppet for Schumer & Pelosi. Represents Alabama poorly. On to November 3rd.”

    Democrats pick their candidate to take on Susan Collins in Maine

    Another highly anticipated November Senate race will take place in Maine. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is defending her seat in the state in what is expected to be a hard-fought battle.

    Democrats picked their candidate to take on Collins on Tuesday, with CNN projecting that state House Speaker Sara Gideon will win the primary.

    Maine’s Democratic Senate primary featured three candidates and voters had the chance to rank all of them by preference in the state’s ranked-choice voting system, which was used at the federal level in Maine for the first time in 2018.

    Gideon had the most money and highest profile, while activist Betsy Sweet, who had finished third in the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary, and lawyer Bre Kidman were trying to run to her left.

    National Democrats have made Collins a top target in their effort to try to take back the Senate majority in 2020. The senator is facing the toughest reelection of her career a race that the newsletter Inside Elections rates a “Toss-up.”

    Trump’s former physician wins GOP primary runoff for Texas congressional seat

    Dr. Ronny Jackson, President Donald Trump’s former chief physician and one-time nominee for Veterans Affairs secretary, will win the Republican runoff for the US House seat in Texas’ 13th Congressional District, CNN projects.
    Trump had backed Jackson, who is a Texas native, while his opponent Josh Winegarner had the support of outgoing 13th District Rep. Mac Thornberry, who announced last year that he would not run for reelection.

    The district is heavily conservative and was carried by Trump by more than 60 points. As a result, the Republican nominee is well positioned to keep the seat in GOP hands in the November general election.

    The President championed Jackson’s candidacy, tweeting in February, “Ronny is strong on Crime and Borders, GREAT for our Military and Vets, and will protect your #2A.”

    Jackson, a retired Navy rear admiral, withdrew from consideration as Trump’s nominee for secretary of Veterans Affairs in 2018 over allegations that he was “abusive” toward colleagues, loosely handled prescription pain medications and was periodically intoxicated. Jackson denied all of the allegations leveled against him, calling them “completely false and fabricated.”

    During his run, Jackson, who served as White House physician during the Obama administration as well, embraced the right-wing conspiracy, promoted by President Trump without offering proof, that then-President Barack Obama spied on Trump’s campaign, a move that angered some of the Obama aides who had served alongside him in the White House.

    In March, he finished second in the 15-person GOP field, far behind Winegarner.

    MJ Hegar to face John Cornyn in Texas

    Air Force veteran MJ Hegar has won a Senate Democratic primary runoff in Texas, CNN projects, setting up a match up against Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the fall.

    Hegar, who narrowly lost a House race in 2018, and her allies had been massively outspending her primary opponent state Sen. Royce West, who has attacked her for voting in the 2016 GOP presidential primary for Carly Fiorina, which Hegar has called a protest vote against Trump.

    Hegar will face an uphill battle heading into November, however. Inside Elections rates the Senate race “Leans Republican.”

    Hegar’s win, along with Gideon’s victory in Maine, also means that national Democrats’ Senate picks continue their winning streak.

    The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee backed Hegar in Texas and Gideon in Maine. EMILY’s List is also supporting both women.

    At least one Sessions is happy about Tuesday

    Former GOP Rep. Pete Sessions notched a win in his own comeback effort on Tuesday after his GOP primary opponent businesswoman Renee Swann conceded.

    Sessions lost in 2018 when Democrat Colin Allred unseated him in Texas’ 32nd District. On Tuesday, he ran as a GOP candidate in a primary runoff for a different congressional district in the state: the 17th. He prevailed in that race with his opponent conceding Tuesday evening.

    Sessions had originally considered running against Allred but when GOP Rep. Bill Flores announced he wasn’t running for reelection, the solidly red 17th District came open, and Sessions jumped in.

    In Tuesday’s runoff, he faced Swann, who announced earlier this month around the start of early voting that she and her husband had tested positive for coronavirus and would be quarantining.

    Swann tweeted her support for Sessions on Tuesday evening, saying, “I offer my congratulations to Pete Sessions and ask everyone who cares about preserving what is great and amazing in our country to support him in the general election.”
    The 11-term former congressman, who was allegedly caught up in efforts to oust the former US ambassador to Ukraine, will be in a strong position headed into November. The general election is a “Solid Republican” race.

    This story has been updated with additional developments.

    CNN’s Simone Pathe and Alex Rogers contributed to this report.

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    5 takeaways from primary elections and runoffs in Texas, Alabama, and Maine Washington (CNN) President Donald Trump will be able to claim victory after a pair of down-ballot contests Tuesday evening where two high-profile Republican candidates he supported prevailed in primary races. Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions came up short in a fight for his political life. Democrats picked their candidate to take on Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the fall, and Trump’s former physician Ronny Jackson won a GOP primary runoff for a Texas congressional seat. Jeff Sessions loses to Trump-backed GOP opponent in Alabama Sessions lost a US Senate GOP primary runoff to former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, CNN projects, a major blow to the former attorney general, who had faced fierce opposition to his candidacy from the President. Tuberville, who was endorsed by the President, will now advance to the general election as the Republican candidate set to take on incumbent Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in November. The race is likely to be the Republican Party’s best pickup opportunity of the cycle. Jones, who pulled off an upset in the deep red state in a 2017 special election, is widely viewed as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat facing reelection in 2020. The outcome of Tuesday’s GOP runoff race marks a significant political defeat for Sessions, who had been fighting to reclaim a Senate seat that he had previously held. Sessions was the first US senator to endorse Trump in the 2016 presidential race and was once a prominent figure in the Trump administration as the top official leading the Justice Department. But he fell out of favor with the President and became a target of Trump’s attacks after he recused himself while serving as attorney general from the FBI probe into Russian interference in the 2016 campaign. Sessions became an underdog in the fight for his old job after losing the support of the President. Trump was quick to celebrate the victory by his candidate of choice on Tuesday night, tweeting, “Tommy Tuberville WON big against Jeff Sessions. Will be a GREAT Senator for the incredible people of Alabama. @DougJones is a terrible Senator who is just a Super Liberal puppet for Schumer & Pelosi. Represents Alabama poorly. On to November 3rd.” Democrats pick their candidate to take on Susan Collins in Maine Another highly anticipated November Senate race will take place in Maine. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is defending her seat in the state in what is expected to be a hard-fought battle. Democrats picked their candidate to take on Collins on Tuesday, with CNN projecting that state House Speaker Sara Gideon will win the primary. Maine’s Democratic Senate primary featured three candidates and voters had the chance to rank all of them by preference in the state’s ranked-choice voting system, which was used at the federal level in Maine for the first time in 2018. Gideon had the most money and highest profile, while activist Betsy Sweet, who had finished third in the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary, and lawyer Bre Kidman were trying to run to her left. National Democrats have made Collins a top target in their effort to try to take back the Senate majority in 2020. The senator is facing the toughest reelection of her career a race that the newsletter Inside Elections rates a “Toss-up.” Trump’s former physician wins GOP primary runoff for Texas congressional seat Dr. Ronny Jackson, President Donald Trump’s former chief physician and one-time nominee for Veterans Affairs secretary, will win the Republican runoff for the US House seat in Texas’ 13th Congressional District, CNN projects. Trump had backed Jackson, who is a Texas native, while his opponent Josh Winegarner had the support of outgoing 13th District Rep. Mac Thornberry, who announced last year that he would not run for reelection. The district is heavily conservative and was carried by Trump by more than 60 points. As a result, the Republican nominee is well positioned to keep the seat in GOP hands in the November general election. The President championed Jackson’s candidacy, tweeting in February, “Ronny is strong on Crime and Borders, GREAT for our Military and Vets, and will protect your #2A.” Jackson, a retired Navy rear admiral, withdrew from consideration as Trump’s nominee for secretary of Veterans Affairs in 2018 over allegations that he was “abusive” toward colleagues, loosely handled prescription pain medications and was periodically intoxicated. Jackson denied all of the allegations leveled against him, calling them “completely false and fabricated.” During his run, Jackson, who served as White House physician during the Obama administration as well, embraced the right-wing conspiracy, promoted by President Trump without offering proof, that then-President Barack Obama spied on Trump’s campaign, a move that angered some of the Obama aides who had served alongside him in the White House. In March, he finished second in the 15-person GOP field, far behind Winegarner. MJ Hegar to face John Cornyn in Texas Air Force veteran MJ Hegar has won a Senate Democratic primary runoff in Texas, CNN projects, setting up a match up against Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the fall. Hegar, who narrowly lost a House race in 2018, and her allies had been massively outspending her primary opponent state Sen. Royce West, who has attacked her for voting in the 2016 GOP presidential primary for Carly Fiorina, which Hegar has called a protest vote against Trump. Hegar will face an uphill battle heading into November, however. Inside Elections rates the Senate race “Leans Republican.” Hegar’s win, along with Gideon’s victory in Maine, also means that national Democrats’ Senate picks continue their winning streak. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee backed Hegar in Texas and Gideon in Maine. EMILY’s List is also supporting both women. At least one Sessions is happy about Tuesday Former GOP Rep. Pete Sessions notched a win in his own comeback effort on Tuesday after his GOP primary opponent businesswoman Renee Swann conceded. Sessions lost in 2018 when Democrat Colin Allred unseated him in Texas’ 32nd District. On Tuesday, he ran as a GOP candidate in a primary runoff for a different congressional district in the state: the 17th. He prevailed in that race with his opponent conceding Tuesday evening. Sessions had originally considered running against Allred but when GOP Rep. Bill Flores announced he wasn’t running for reelection, the solidly red 17th District came open, and Sessions jumped in. In Tuesday’s runoff, he faced Swann, who announced earlier this month around the start of early voting that she and her husband had tested positive for coronavirus and would be quarantining. Swann tweeted her support for Sessions on Tuesday evening, saying, “I offer my congratulations to Pete Sessions and ask everyone who cares about preserving what is great and amazing in our country to support him in the general election.” The 11-term former congressman, who was allegedly caught up in efforts to oust the former US ambassador to Ukraine, will be in a strong position headed into November. The general election is a “Solid Republican” race. This story has been updated with additional developments. CNN’s Simone Pathe and Alex Rogers contributed to this report.

    Excellent analysis.

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    Gavin Newsom

    According to the California Department of Corrections, the state is set to release up to 18,000 prisoners by the end of August to ‘slow the spread of COVID-19.’

    Officials in California say releasing prisoners will help protect the “health and safety of the incarcerated population.”

    Like sending Covid positive patients into nursing homes…

    brilliant

     

     

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    mellobruce
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     China received a preeminent position on a United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) panel, where it will lead the way in choosing the international body’s human rights investigators. According to UN Watch, a non-governmental human rights organization, this includes global monitoring of “freedom of speech, health, enforced disappearances, and arbitrary detention.”

    LOL,

    This is so offensive you have to laugh, or puke.

    A problem facing Emperor Xi is that foreign CEOs have to shut down their consciences to do business in China. As the landmark Uyghurs for Sale report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) made clear in March, China’s famous supply of cheap labor is made cheaper with slave labor. The Uyghur Muslims of Xinjiang province are among the prisoners China forces to work in its factories, a practice accelerated considerably during the coronavirus outbreak, when the CCP decided it was too dangerous for Han Chinese to show up for work.

    U.S. Attorney General Bob Barr noted the cognitive dissonance of giving China a pass during remarks at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum on Thursday.

    “Hollywood’s actors producers and directors pride themselves on celebrating freedom and the human spirit, and every year at the Academy Awards Americans are lectured about how this country falls short of Hollywood’s ideals of social justice – but Hollywood now regularly censors its own movies to appease the Chinese Communist Party, the world’s most powerful violator of human rights. This censorship infects, not only the versions of movies that are released in China, but also many that are shown in the United States theaters to American audiences,” Barr said.

     

     

     

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