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12 Years A Slave – 0-9?

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    Colin Powis
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    #141013

    Hmm, weren’t Before Midnight,12 Years and Mud the best reviewed pictures of the year??

    I want 12 Years to win (barely – I loved Gravity, too). I think 12 Years will win massively not because it is that much better than Gravity, but because Academy PC voters will be afraid of a shut-out and resulting bad media coverage.  

    ===========================================================

    I don’t agree ; 12 YAS may indeed win , but if /when it does it will not be ”massively ” , but with a mere 2-3 Oscars  

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    Nessie
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    #141014

    I think it will take Best Picture – massively, not the others necessarily though I think Ejiofor will narrowly beat McConaughey also out of fear that they might look like racists for not supporting the film. The Academy is very PC.

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    Colin Powis
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    #141015

    ^ ^ ^  that’s a silly , simplistic view ;.. politically speaking , you’re merely a child 

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    Scottferguson
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    #141016

    Pete Hammond at Deadline Hollywood just posted about the “It’s time” campaign” (as though it is current still), no big analysis or criticism. But the comments section is quickly filling up, with many people thinking it is (was) a bad idea.

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    DD
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    #141017

    Didn’t Crash have a controversial ad, too? This “it’s time campaign” sure has people talking.

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    DD
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    #141018

    UPDATE: Yup. Crash’s campaign Billboard was “Remember how it made you feel?”

    With Oscar voting ending in four days, I’m wondering how much of an effect this campaign could have on voters? It seems like backlash for previous BP nominees (Beautiful Mind, Zero Dark Thirty, etc.) started much earlier in the season.

    Also side note – Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan and Pete Hammond are all close to jumping off the Gravity bandwagon.

    Looks like Anne Thompson, Steve Pond, Dave Karger & Anthony Brezican are sticking with 12 Yrs.

    It’s fascinating that even the top experts are so split over this race. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #141019

    What was controversial about “Remember how it made you feel” – unless you are implying the “it” was meant to refer to Brokeback, not Crash.

    Reminding voters that they liked something – I don’t see that as anything similar.

    As I said when I first noted this (a week before DH reported) it smacks of possible, if not panic, at least concern that they had to appeal to something other than the voters’ feeling about what was best film to win.

    I switched a few days ago to slightly favoring Gravity. Nothing in the last couple days changes my mind, though in a close race I might still do so, more than once.

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    Colin Powis
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    #141020

    STEVE POND changed his prediction to GRAVITY about a week or so ago

    But I agree with you after seeing the video that O’Neil  , Sheehan are close to jumping ship on gravity …Boomer already has  

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    Stardust
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    #141021

    Everyone should switch to Gravity, I’d like worse odds for a Slave win. 

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    endaugust
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    #141022

    The “it’s time” controversy will have no effects on the race.  Voters know that it’s just campaigning speaks.

    I thought that they were afraid of looking racist if they didn’t vote for 12YAS.  Now someone reminds them and they’ll suddenly change their minds?  These AMPAS voters are just a bunch of fairweather wimps if that were the case.

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    Scottferguson
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    #141023

    Brokeback Mt lost in part because there was a sense that voters were obligated to vote for it because of its subject/breakthrough situation. But Focus didn’t push that. Searchlight seems to.

    It was a bonehead move. Will it make a difference? In a close race, it could.

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    endaugust
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    #141024

    If they like the movie, they wouldn’t change their mind.  If it weren’t a favorite, then their allegiance is fairweather.  Secondly, in 2005 it was still okay largely to appear homophobic.  They went for the other “important” issue, racism.

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    jinishima
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    #141025

    Strictly speaking(err typing), Brokeback lost because of homophobia.

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    Anthony 🐜
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    #141026

    Harvey Weinstein did an interview with Deadline (published yesterday Feb,19th) and his now infamous comments are rubbing 12 Years a Slave fans the wrong way. Especially since many people seem to agree with him

    “To me, Django Unchained is a political masterpiece. I liked 12 Years A Slave, but Quentin covered a lot of that ground first, and dealt with violence, slavery and oppression, shining a light on the American holocaust, as he called it.”

    That being said, a lot of people are rubbed the wrong way over the “It’s Time” tag line for its Oscar campaign, and many are actually making fun of it all. There are some dirty tricks going on since the BAFTA awards, and almost all of them are targeting 12 years A Slave. A lot of talk about the subject matter (slavery) already being sufficiently dealt with, the fact that 12 Years A Slave isn’t revelatory, mocking campaigns, questioning the validity of Best Picture wins because of a lack of other wins, and demeaning the film’s importance.

    And is seems to be working. People are actually making fun of 12 Years A Slave’s Oscar campaign,

    Poor Sasha Stone is hardest hit by all of this, writing on twitter: ” Hope anyone who tries to sabotage 12 Years’ Oscar chances by making fun of their campaign can still sleep at night dipped in all that shit”.

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    DominicCobb
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    #141027

    The campaign really is annoying, though I guess they’ve changed it.

    I think what they really should be focusing on (if they want to go for the importance and all of that) is to make it clear that this is a true story. It’s why Harvey’s quote doesn’t hold any water. 12 Years was being worked on before any one saw Django Unchained. And it’s not like the filmmakers have just decided to make another film about slavery and gun for all these awards and tell everyone it’s important because it’s about an important topic, this is a film about a man who really lived through all these atrocities. It is an account of his 12 Years as a kidnapped slave. It is a story that has not been told on the big screen before, but has every right to have been.

    If FSI could somehow work that in, that’d be great.

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