February 16, 2014 at 9:44 pm #140863
I think what makes 12 Years a strong favorite (not to mentioned its recent BP victories), is that of the top three, especially, there is little resistance to its screenplay. Gravity did not secure a screenplay nomination, and many critics consider American Hustle’s screenplay as one of its weakest characteristics. This could be a minor detal overall, but with regards to attributes, this is something strong that I think is in 12 Years’ favor.February 16, 2014 at 9:46 pm #140864This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.February 16, 2014 at 9:59 pm #140865
Yes, there is obvious resistance to 12 Years A Slave (and anyone from today onwards who says it will sweep or clean up at the Oscars needs to know: That’s you heart talking, not your level headed mind).
I doubt it will go 0-9 (empty handed).
Right now i am confident it will win Best Picture. That’s the award i believe it is heading to with worp speed.
Best Adapted Screenplay is its most competitive category,with Philomena and & Captain Phillips close behind.
Best Supporting Actress is a toss up. I fear for Lupita Nyong’o right now. Everyone says Jennifer Lawrence won’t possibly win back-to-back Oscars, but it has happened in the past (Tom Hannks) and there is really nothing stopping the Academy from awarding her again.
But 12 Years a Slave is not going home empty handed.February 16, 2014 at 10:47 pm #140866
God I hope not. But really, I can’t imagine it losing Adapted Screenplay. What to? Philomena? Didn’t BAFTA award that as a consolation, since it gave British Film to Gravity and Best Film to 12 Years? I think all 12 Years supporters (of which there is more than Philomena supprters) will vote for it here, giving it the easy win.
Supporting Actress is a toughie, it’s still the frontrunner, but it’s a weak lead. But I think the back to back thing really does hurt Lawrence – it’s not something that affects her winning anywhere else (especially BAFTA), so that’s why she gets those. This is not an undeniable performance. If it was sweeping the precursors and was in a film that was going to win BP like Tom Hanks (except for BAFTA, oddly enough, he lost to Hugh Grant[?]), then I could see that happening. But in this year where the precursors are divided, I see the scales tipping in the favor of the non winner (or at least the non back to back winner ala Russell Crowe vs Denzel Washington).
As for Best Picture, who knows. But it still has a chance to upset in one of the below the line categories like Lincoln did with Production Design last year.February 16, 2014 at 11:05 pm #140867
Wouldn’t it be something if 12 Years a Slave only won Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay. That hasn’t happened since 1953 with The Greatest Show on Earth.February 16, 2014 at 11:08 pm #140868
I think Lupita will win….. and that’s it.February 17, 2014 at 3:02 am #140869
I don’t think it’ll win more than 2 Oscars. Gravity is taking Best PictureFebruary 17, 2014 at 3:03 am #140870
I think Lupita will win….. and that’s it.February 17, 2014 at 3:03 am #140871
I think Lupita will win….. and that’s it.February 17, 2014 at 3:13 am #140872
I think Lupita will win….. and that’s it.
Yeah I have a bad feeling that’s all the movie’s gonna get and even that is hardly a lock.February 17, 2014 at 4:29 am #140873
The only places I’d be happy to see 12 YAS to win something is BP(because I normally don’t care about BP winner) and best supporting actor,would be fine if it took home best actor.Most of the other categories it’s nominated for include much more deserving contenders.
Best supporting actor is Leto’s to lose so that’s pretty much a daydream now.
It could win supporting actress,but Nyong’o’s performance was really underwhelming imo so I’d rather see Lawrence winning,even though Lawrence’s performance is far from the best.
And yeah I don’t really see anything stopping Lawrence from winning btb,except for not campaigning,but she still won the Globe and BAFTA,so who knows.
I really want Before Midnight to win adapted screenplay,but 12 YAS is probably gonna take this one,meh.
February 17, 2014 at 4:37 am #140874
I have it winning Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay, and my NGNG pick for it is Best Actor (Ejiofor)!
Had to give up on Fassbender and the fanboy in me compels me to stick with Lawrence to the very end.February 17, 2014 at 4:55 am #140875
12 YEARS A SLAVE has won the drama Golden Globe for best picture
plus, the Producers Guild for best picture, plus BAFTA…Seems like its
almost a lock for best picture….The academy will choose carefully and
award it in the correct categories…If Cuaron is a definite best director winner
then 12 YEARS will most definitely win the next important oscar which is
its screenplay…I still feel that Nyong’o is eventually going to prevail..JLAW
will not win back to back oscars in 2 different acting categories and make
history….If not Nyong’o, then Squibb….but my bet is on Lupita….in the
technical area, i still feel that THE GREAT GATSBY will only win 1 of
its 2 nominations and i think 12 YEARS will win the other, either costumes
or art direction….My tally will give it 4 oscars which is the latest average
number in the last few years….February 17, 2014 at 5:36 am #140876
[quote=”Scottferguson”]Squibb has a better chance than JL.
You need to give it a rest.[/quote]
But June Squibb has so much momentum!
Losing to Lawrence for the comedy Globe + losing to Lawrence at BAFTA’s + losing the NYFCC + film not one of the BP contenders + losing SAG to Lupita = shocking win!
Wait. Are we still pretending Nebraska has a chance to win anything?
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