Home Forums Movies 2018 Oscar Nominee Predictions: Part 8

2018 Oscar Nominee Predictions: Part 8

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 536 total)
Created
10 months ago
Last Reply
9 months ago
535
( +11 hidden )
replies
69294
views
102
users
Teridax
43
PJ Edwards
29
FreemanGriffin
28
  • Chris Beachum
    Keymaster
    Joined:
    May 22nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441436

    Discuss Oscars 2018 nominations and potential winners in part 8 of this topic.

    22 categories are available now in the predictions center. The final 2 will be added very soon.

    Macca
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 22nd, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441718

    This is the way I see it being tallied up among who I think will be the BP nominees.

    Call Me by Your Name – 7 nominations/2 wins
    Dunkirk – 9 nominations/2 wins
    The Florida Project – 3 nominations/1 win
    Get Out – 5 nominations/1 win
    Lady Bird – 5 nominations/3 wins
    Phantom Thread – 6 nominations
    The Post – 2 nominations
    The Shape of Water – 14 nominations/1 win
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 4 nominations/1 win

    FreemanGriffin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441799

    Call Me By Your Name – 7 nominations/2 wins
    Darkest Hour – 5 nominations
    Dunkirk – 9 nominations/3 wins
    The Florida Project – 4 nominations/1 win
    Get Out – 2 nominations
    Lady Bird – 4 nominations/1 win
    The Post – 6 nominations/1 win
    The Shape of Water – 13 nominations/3 wins
    Three Billboards – 4 nominations

    The movie I keep on wondering whether it gets a nomination for Best Picture or not is The Big Sick. I’m so on the fence about it. I prefer it to 5 of the films that I think will be nominated but I am not sure how beloved it is ‘out there’ in Hollywood?

    BenitoDelicias
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 3rd, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441817

    Saw Mudbound last night. I wasn’t as impressed as everybody else. I agree with those who say Mulligan should be getting the supporting buzz over Blige who was good but not great. It should be nominated for Cinematography. Maybe Jason Mitchell too.

    I saw Good Time too. One of my favorites of the year. Robert Pattison should’ve been in contention too, not just at all the indie awards.

    jman02
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 31st, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441821

    Call Me By Your Name – 7 noms/1 win
    Dunkirk – 9 noms/2 wins
    The Florida Project – 2 noms/1 win
    Get Out – 5 noms
    Lady Bird – 5 noms/1 win
    Phantom Thread – 5 noms
    The Post – 5 noms
    The Shape of Water – 12 noms/5 wins
    Three Billboards – 4 noms/2 wins

    Haven’t finished my predictions on who’s winning the tech categories (SEditing, SMixing, and VisEffects), though.

    sofan
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 1st, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441839

    who’s winning the tech categories (SEditing, SMixing, and VisEffects),

    Dunkirk is taking both Sound categories.

    seberko
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 28th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441910

    who’s winning the tech categories (SEditing, SMixing, and VisEffects),

    Dunkirk is taking both Sound categories.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if it won Sound Mixing, like Hacksaw did last year, but I think it will lose Sound Editing to Blade Runner or TSOW, like Arrival last year

    JackO
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441931

    This year is going to be so scattered, that the BP winner may even lead in wins. I think Birdman was the last time that happened?

    FreemanGriffin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441939

    I was looking at the stats for how many Oscar nominations each Oscar winner has had since 2000, and how many wins each film has had too. I have a theory that a film has to have six nominations in order to win and that has been true all but one time:

    1999 American Beauty – 8 nominations/5 wins
    2000 Gladiator – 12 nominations/5 wins
    2001 A Beautiful Mind – 8 nomintions/4 wins
    2002 Chicago – 13 nominations/6 wins
    2003 The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King – 11 nominations/11 wins
    2004 Million Dollar Baby – 7 nominations/4 wins
    2005 Crash – 6 nominations/3 wins
    2006 The Departed – 5 nominations/4 wins
    2007 No Country For Old Men – 8 nominations/4 wins
    2008 Slumdog Millionaire – 10 nominations/8 wins
    2009 The Hurt Locker – 9 nominations/6 wins
    2010 The King’s Speech – 10 nominations/4 wins
    2011 The Artist – 10 nominations/5 wins
    2012 Argo – 7 nominations/3 wins
    2013 12 Years a Slave – 9 nominations/3 wins
    2014 Birdman – 9 nominations/4 wins
    2015 Spotlight – 6 nominations/2 wins
    2016 Moonlight – 8 nominations/3 wins

    A few things I noticed: The Departed had the least number of nominations (5) and won the Oscar, there were 4 films that got more nominations that year.

    There has been a significant trend towards less and less Oscar wins for BP winners over the past 8 years, which was when they extended the number of BP nominees from 5 to up to 10 nominees.

    I am hoping the two films I dislike the most this year will get a low number of nominations and that will knock them out of contention. I am hoping the academy does so. Currently goldderby odds put those two films at 4 nominations and 3 nominations respectively, lower than the threshold of 5 that has been true over the past 17 years. They could over-perform so I am waiting to see what they do when the Oscar nominations come out next month.

    zkrons
    Participant
    Joined:
    Apr 25th, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441948

    The Post (8,0)
    Lady Bird (5,2)
    Three Billboards (6,2)
    Call Me By Your Name (6,1)
    The Shape of Water (14, 3)
    Dunkirk (8,1)
    Get Out (3,0)
    The Florida Project (2,0)

    These are my predicted best picture nominees with my predictions of their nominations & wins (except the win for Picture). I have not put the prediction for picture because I am not sure. I feel like The Post will win something, and the only thing I have it winning for in my predictions is Picture which I feel is highly unlikely if it doesn’t win anywhere else.

    sofan
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 1st, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441991

    I love how people are still underestimating Get Out’s chances. If it was up to me, it wouldn’t be anywhere near this conversation but unfortunately, at this point, it seems like the frontrunner in BP, which makes it also a frontrunner in Original Screenplay.

    FreemanGriffin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441995

    ^those may be its only 2 nominations and I don’t think it is at all beloved ‘out there’ in Hollywood. Identity politics is the only thing it has going for it and there are a few other identity politics movies in the mix this year. It might over-perform and get more nominations, that is possible, it’s hard to know without knowing the composition of the voters who will be doing the nominations.

    jman02
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 31st, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441997

    who’s winning the tech categories (SEditing, SMixing, and VisEffects),

    Dunkirk is taking both Sound categories.

    If Dunkirk does win both, I wouldn’t be surprised. I have it nominated for both easily. But thing is, I haven’t seen Blade Runner 2049, The Shape of Water, or any other film that I would think might upstage it, so I’ll have it win by default for now, I guess.

    FreemanGriffin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202441998

    Does anybody know when they will add Best Foreign Language Film in the predictions center? There are only 9 films in contention for the 5 slots and I have been waiting to put my predictions up…

    jman02
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 31st, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202442001

    I was looking at the stats for how many Oscar nominations each Oscar winner has had since 2000, and how many wins each film has had too. I have a theory that a film has to have six nominations in order to win

    Hmm, if this theory holds water (and I’m starting to feel it does realistically make sense in a way), then the only ones that have a shot at Best Picture are:

    CMBYN, The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, and probably The Post.

    And I don’t think Dunkirk is winning Best Picture without an acting and/or screenplay nomination (I don’t know if any film has done that since Grand Hotel). And Three Billboards may also have 6 or more if they nominate 2 supporting actors, film editing, and the score. Get Out can optimistically only get up to 5 (unless they nominate it for tech stuff; I have it for only Film Editing myself). And Lady Bird is stuck at 5 unless they also nominate the editing which is too optimistic for me.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 536 total)

The topic ‘2018 Oscar Nominee Predictions: Part 8’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
ENGLAND - Oct 15, 2018
Movies
GidouJu - Oct 15, 2018
Movies
phinsjake - Oct 13, 2018
Movies