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2018 SAG Ensemble Nomination Predictions

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  • JackO
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    #1202429519

    I think Post reviews are out tomorrow, so it’ll be interesting to see. NBR launched into the race but if reviews are only Bridge of Spies level or below, I don’t see it as being undeniable here. And Phantom Thread did not send screeners so ya’ll can drop DDL.

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    PerksofBeingaGriff
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    #1202429531

    I feel like the names in the cast are too undeniable for them to not nominate it, whether it’s a masterpiece or not. It’s led by heavyweights Streep and Hanks and then a supporting cast of actors everyone has worked with. Whitford, Odenkirk, Paulson, Brie, and Coon. Also, Jessie Mueller could even bring in the more theatre oriented actors. I think they coast in on that alone.

    A win? I doubt it, unless it turns out to be a masterpiece.

    “Someone is staring at you in ‘Personal Growth’.”

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    JackO
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    #1202429579

    There is no such thing as coasting when your screener was sent in when there were only 2 weeks of voting left. Even the best example that Post hopes to replicate, American Hustle, missed nods in Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actor. Only got in where it was undeniable: 2nd place Jlaw, and ensemble, which it won, after it won BP at NYFC. I don’t think NBR alone measures up to that.

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202429583

    This is hurting my head there are too many possibilities. There are actually no locks here it’s so crazy.

    Besides Get Out, I agree with this statement. I think Mudbound is safe but I will not call it a lock.

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    Cordell Martin
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    #1202429594

    My Prediction

    Three Billboards Outside Missouri
    The Big Sick
    Get Out
    Mudbound
    Lady Bird

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    Macca
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    #1202429602

    My predictions:

    Get Out
    I, Tonya
    Mudbound
    The Post
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Mudbound is most likely to be nominated; a mixed race cast about two families in a period setting is just too irresistible. SAG also doesn’t have Netflix bias so this should be easy.

    Get Out also has a mixed race cast that they will probably go for as well, especially since it seems to be a hot film at this point in the race.

    I, Tonya is going to be the Captain Fantastic of this year, an indie comedy film that seems a bit of a far fetch for a nomination, but can get in with a nomination in other categories.

    The Post is the seemingly obvious frontrunner but I’m unsure of whether it was screened for enough people in time. I think it’ll just get in because of how big and famous the cast is, not necessarily because it has the best cast.

    Three Billboards also has a big and recognizable cast, as well as being a favorite of many people (at the time of voting). I’d say that this was vying for this last position with Lady Bird and The Big Sick.

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    Cinephile
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    #1202429644

    My predictions: Get Out I, Tonya Mudbound The Post Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Mudbound is most likely to be nominated; a mixed race cast about two families in a period setting is just too irresistible. SAG also doesn’t have Netflix bias so this should be easy. Get Out also has a mixed race cast that they will probably go for as well, especially since it seems to be a hot film at this point in the race. I, Tonya is going to be the Captain Fantastic of this year, an indie comedy film that seems a bit of a far fetch for a nomination, but can get in with a nomination in other categories. The Post is the seemingly obvious frontrunner but I’m unsure of whether it was screened for enough people in time. I think it’ll just get in because of how big and famous the cast is, not necessarily because it has the best cast. Three Billboards also has a big and recognizable cast, as well as being a favorite of many people (at the time of voting). I’d say that this was vying for this last position with Lady Bird and The Big Sick.

    your predictions are pretty good only I would swap out I, Tonya with Shape of Water. The shape of water’s cast is big and recognisable too!

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    Riley
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    #1202429688

    Along with The Post, the SAG nominating committee just received Girls Trip, I, Tonya, Phantom Thread, Wind River and Wonder. Suddenly concerned for Margot Robbie. I understand that Girls Trip and Wonder as awards players took their studios off guard (and they were largely seen in theatres anyway), Wind River is already available on DVD anyway and Phantom Thread was not ready until recently, but what took them so long to send I, Tonya? Voting has been open for weeks and ends this weekend!

    SAG also doesn’t have Netflix bias so this should be easy.

    I would say that it does actually, although I understand what you are trying to say.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Anonymous
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    #1202429709

    Riley, what are your overall thoughts of Girls Trip’s and Haddish’s awards prospects?

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    Riley
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    Have not seen it. She could get a Critics’ Choice comedy nomination.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Bee
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    #1202429855

    If I Tonya was that late, maybe Robbie misses to someone like Judi Dench.

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    Riley
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    #1202429879

    I had Hawkins missing to Dench already, so I swapped out Robbie for Hawkins. SAG has nominated the likes of Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith so many times that just went nowhere, so I cannot ignore Dench in a relatively crowd-pleasing September release.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    AwardsConnect
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    I think Robbie is extremely vulnerable to a SAG snub. And if that indeed happens, her Oscar hopes (for the win, at least) all but evaporate.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    jacob121
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    #1202430016

    If I Tonya was that late, maybe Robbie misses to someone like Judi Dench.

    I’m on the verge of predicting this. My only hesitation is that Robbie has been hustling so hard, the screener was probably a priority if the voter hadn’t already caught an industry screening. It’s possible I, Tonya had just enough exposure to eek out the nom.

    Slightly OT but I don’t understand some of the predictions I see for Robbie possibly winning the Oscar.

    Right now I have:

    1. Lady Bird
    2. Get Out
    3. The Post
    4. Shape of Water
    5. CMBYN

    I have itching to put Mudbound in but don’t know who to swap out. I feel pretty confident about my list.

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    Riley
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    #1202430037

    She is a hot young thing in the Best Actress category, with an actual grest performance to boot in a possible Best Picture nominee. Why do you not think that she can win? She has not won anything so far, but neither had Emma Stone by this point.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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