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December 6, 2017 at 7:48 am #1202431070
What about 3B though?
Nope. I don’t see it get nominated here at all – the competition is just too strong this year. And I’m not even taking into account the backlash its getting, I honestly feel like SAG will go to Lady Bird, SOW and after reading this thread, even something like The Big Sick or Murder on the Orient Express before it goes to 3B.
Remember how Hell or High Water missed here last year? That’s how I see 3B being this year.
What do you think of the Florida Project Riley? I have a hunch it will get in, but I know it’s a longshot. I am thinking putting MOTOE in, but what do I take out?December 6, 2017 at 9:46 am #1202431212
I think MOTOE is going to be the suprise here … its not controversal like 3B , SOW or CMBYN … its just a huge amazing cast
Check out my Store.December 6, 2017 at 10:17 am #1202431267
The critics choice nominations for best acting ensemble are:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
this could very much be our 5 sag nominations too. I must say I’m happy to see dunkirk’s cast being recognised here but that also meant some big snubs!December 6, 2017 at 10:28 am #1202431279
pretty sure they’re just going to put Dunkirk in stunt ensemble and call it a day and someone else will take its spot but lol least it matched 4/5 of my sag ensemble predixDecember 6, 2017 at 10:32 am #1202431288
Three Billboards isn’t missing and if it does, it’s not gonna be to Murder on the Orient Express.December 6, 2017 at 10:38 am #1202431297
Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes have me wondering if I should drop The Post and/or Tom Hanks.
What do you think of the Florida Project Riley?
It is in the hunt, like so much else. Is much of the cast eligible though?
Why? Because the Oscar voters only consider SAG ensemble nominated films? If a film misses it then it’s dead to them? Flawed reasoning. This “statistic” is just coincidental. You can’t say that a film is done or dead because it misses one nomination.
This is too competitive a race to discount a snub. There are a dozen contenders that check off all of the boxes, so it is just going to come down to which films they prefer in some cases.December 6, 2017 at 10:50 am #1202431320
Get Out won the Best Ensemble award with the National Board of review.
The Big Sick was an Ensemble nominee with Detroit Film Critics.
So I think they definitely have a shot. Plus, both are on streaming right now so more voters will have seen them.December 6, 2017 at 11:31 am #1202431371
I know it wont happen but im praying for i, Tonya with my heart movie needs this especially for margot cause i dont think she is safe for nominationDecember 6, 2017 at 11:49 am #1202431409
Sagand, we have the same top five. Swap Get Out and Mudbound and then we have the same order.December 6, 2017 at 12:10 pm #1202431423
My post went to moderator purgatory after editing.
I am going for:
1. Get Out – Early release, deals with race, populist, cast all interact in a small setting. It seems the safest to me.
2. Three Billboards – I’m not quite ready to buy the controversy derailing chances of nominations. Was it a completely different film that won a bunch of audience awards at the festivals? In a positive vote it should be fine with a strong actress and supporting actor contender.
3. Mudbound – It seems to have been buying up all the ensemble awards up to this point in the season so this seems to be Netflix’s main play for the film. Another films that deals with race, lots of strong performances and no visibility issues.
4. Lady Bird – I believe this could win Best Picture so needs to be here. It has the reviews, a big enough ensemble and was sent in time if it misses it isn’t a real contender.
5. The Post – Even with visibility issues it’s hard to ignore the cast list. Streep + Hanks + Spielberg should be in on paper, but if a chunk of people submitted before they got the screener and if it’s middlebrow Spielberg which the reviews suggest it could well miss. I wouldn’t know what to replace it with so I think I’ll leave it.
Shape of Water – Could get three acting nominations, but I think the fantasy bias is too much to overcome.
Call Me By Your Name – Could also get three nominations but two is more likely, more of a critics film than SAG; doesn’t have the universality of Moonlight.
Darkest Hour – The TV side of SAG loves it’s British prestige with The Crown and Downton Abbey. The Theory of Everything was a surprising nominee in it’s year so maybe this is being underestimated. The Best Actor winner usually get ensemble but is there enough of an ensemble around Oldman?
Dunkirk – It got Critics Choice ensemble today, seems foolish to rule out a top three contender. It seems so un-actor-y, getting in here would be a great sign for the film.
The Big Sick – Early release, did very well. Could be too light given the competition.
The Florida Project – SAG do like nominating children, but to get in ensemble there needs to be an army of them (Beast of no Nation) or at least a troop (Captain Fantastic). I don’t think there is enough of them to get in, add to that some negative feedback from a general audience. It might be more a critics + Oscar passion pick film than a guilds films.
With such a deep field I don’t think there will be anything that come completely out of left field (like Captain Fantastic or Trumbo) but with SAG you never know.
Hopefully that’s a good sign Riley :p not the same line of thinking making the same mistakes.December 7, 2017 at 1:42 pm #1202432543
So since 2010, BFCA have consistently predicted 4/5 of the eventual ensemble nominees except in 2012 when they predict all 5. So it’s likely one of those 5 is missing (I think it’s Dunkirk but you never know).December 7, 2017 at 2:27 pm #1202432593
So since 2010, BFCA have consistently predicted 4/5 of the eventual ensemble nominees except in 2012 when they predict all 5. So it’s likely one of those 5 is missing (I think it’s Dunkirk but you never know).
I agree that DUNKIRK is the most vulnerable, and could easily be displaced by GET OUT, THE BIG SICK, THE SHAPE OF WATER or CALL ME BY YOUR NAME.December 7, 2017 at 6:20 pm #1202432738
I am certain there will be major shocking snubs in the ensemble category this year simply because there are more than five viable films that feel like locks and I think we are in for huge surprises.
At the moment I am predicting: Call Me By Your Name, The Florida Project, Mudbound, The Post, and The Shape of Water… (btw, can we please have a year where the Oscar BP doesn’t necessarily have to be an ensemble nominee? Last year, La La Land was not nominated and we all know what happened: Moonlight wound up winning. at some point another film will have to join Braveheart and not be an ensemble nominee and still win BP at the Osars!)December 7, 2017 at 6:26 pm #1202432744
I’m locking in:
Shape of Water
I really wanted to predict The Florida Project a la Captain Fantastic, but that is really something you cant predict, it just happens.