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2019 Best Actress Predictions and Analysis (Part 2)

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    Eddy Q
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    <p>Yes perfect and Riva was nominated and nearly won, hence me predicting Aparicio this time</p>

    Riva was a legend of the French New Wave whose role in Amour had a high degree of physical difficulty, so it was baity. Aparicio, however, was a non-actor before Roma. I won’t pooh-pooh her chances but outside of being in a Best Picture-contending foreign language film they’re not really comparable.

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    forwardswill
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    ^I give up trying to convince y’all. I guess we’ll see what happens

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    Eddy Q
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    Neither Roberts nor Bullock will be remembered for Erin Brockovich or The Blind Side.</p> <p>Funny how you all want Gaga to win so bad!

    Roberts not being remembered for Erin Brockovich is a reach, no matter how many people wish Burstyn had won that year. It’s often considered her signature role. And I see at least as many rooting against Gaga to win than for her on these forums.

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    estrelas
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    Roberts not being remembered for Erin Brockovich is a reach, no matter how many people wish Burstyn had won that year. It’s often considered her signature role.

    Erin Brokovich is by no means Roberts signature role. I had to search on the Internet to even remember for wich movie she won the Oscar. Pretty Woman is by a mile her signature role. It’s the movie that put her where she is. And yes Ellen Burstyn not only should have won for Requiem for a Dream, but she also gave one of the best performances of cinema history. She brought the house down in that movie.

    • This reply was modified 2 years, 4 months ago by estrelas.
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    GD
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    But Lady Gaga’s Ally is trending on twitter and a lot of people talk about « her » on Instagram… Add to that a number 1 soundtrack and maybe a future number 1 song. And an Oscar winning song. I think ALLY will be remembered way more than we think. Add to that the iconic final scene.

    BUT, if she’s only nominated i’ll be okay with that because they were better performances this year (Toni Colette for example)

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    GD
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    <p style=”text-align: left;”>

    </p>
    Thank God, you just acknowledged that there are better performances so it’s impossible for her to win in a perfect world …

    I never ever said that she was the clear winner.

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    Alberto Dlano-Cox
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    This topic is less than two weeks old and it’s already on the 24th page at the time I posted this… Can we all agree that the Academy maybe should consider expanding the nominees list to 6, like the Emmys? At least for this category.

    Ok, since it’s too early yet, I’m not doing a top 5, I’m gonna list all the potentials with their pros and cons, because we won’t have a clear picture until December 31st (after all the holiday premieres):

    – Lady Gaga: Seems primed for the nomination and strong for the win, but, there still Emily Blunt and Mary Poppins to dispute the “loved by audiences” slot. Also, Glenn Close.

    – Glenn Close: I mean, it’s about damn time, right? Like, infuriatingly so. But The Wife was released too early in the year, and I don’t know if it’ll reach enough voters by the end of the year. Also, SPC has been hit and miss come getting their stars nominated.

    – Olivia Colman (now confirmed running for lead): She is a beloved actor’s actor, pretty much guaranteed a shortlist placement by most UK, Irish and ANZAC Academy members, and with her starring in The Crown, even Netflix might work to give her nod a push . But there’s also the chance that The Favourite is too out there for the older Academy members, critically beloved but hitting an industry establishment wall.

    – Melissa McCarthy: She received critical acclaim and has the great “comedy actress seamless turn to drama” in her favour. Challenging her is the fact that she is the second lead actress campaign that Fox Searchlight would have to manage. They pulled it off perfectly last year, but Can You Ever… and The Favourite would have to perform very well at the Box Office too.

    – Viola Davis: If there’s anyone I can be sure will be nominated is her. The reviews for Widows were ecstatic, and she’s of course singled out, and I think it will become a surprise hit next month, specially overseas (12 Years a Slave was a huge BO hit abroad). She’s simply too much of a powerhouse.

    –  Toni Collette: Hereditary was a huge hit and beloved, and A24 is pretty good at getting performances in dark or unique movies nominated. But it was released too early in the year, it’s simply too much for the old Academy farts and though it was successful, it wasn’t as successful as Get Out to be in the conversation.

    – Nicole Kidman: She’s been having a comeback that makes the McConaissance look pitiful. But it seems that Destroyer is also the kind of movie that, while critically beloved, won’t have the cross-sectional appeal needed for a nomination.

    – Joanna Kulig: First foreign language, critically acclaimed  film and performance all the way to Cannes. Against it: A foreign language, critically acclaimed film and performance all the way to Cannes.

    – Yalitza Aparicio: The fact that is her debut performance, in a foreign language film, as an actress of colour, should actually end up counting in her favour. Against her is the fact that it’s Netflix against the establishment. Roma might gain more eyeballs than many of these movies combined, but maybe they won’t get there just yet to get nominated across the board.

    – Julia Roberts: Another comeback in another critically acclaimed film, but might get lost in the end-of-year shuffle and against that other movie about middle-class parents dealing with their son’s addiction.

    – Charlize Theron (Tully): Look, the movie and her performance in particular were acclaimed, but the movie wasn’t enough of a hit, was released too early in the year, and Focus Features has other movies to push along.

    – Kiki Layne: Another acclaimed performance, probably a platform-to-star making role in If Beale Street Could Talk. But being distributed by Annapurna, currently in the midst of company shakeups, and being hit and miss regarding distribution, might also get caught in the shuffle, not receiving the dedicated awards push that A24 gave Barry Jenkins’ previous movie. She’ll get there.

    – Elsie Fisher (Hell I mean 12 Grade): Again, she’s a star in the making, but it’s too early a role and in a movie that was a hit, but the timing is not in her favour. She’ll get there.

    – Felicity Jones: A movie about GOAT RBG is the very definition of TOPICAL AS FUCK, and she’s a previous, well-liked nominee. Against her is that OTBS skipped TIFF and other fall festivals, but opens the AFI, and maybe Focus Features might be stretched too thin in a tougher awards race this year, across the board.

    – Saoirse Ronan: My personal fav, and I really want her to be nominated so she’ll break Jennifer Lawrence’s record of youngest at 4 nominations. And she’s on a roll on another level, right? She has the love of the younger Academy crowd (with Lady Bird) and the older one (with Brooklyn), and of the two previous mainstream film centred on Mary of Scotland, the one from 1971 garnered Vanessa Redgrave the nomination even though it wasn’t warmly received. Surely Focus Features will surely push this in a similar way Darkes Hour was promoted last year: The classy, big personality period piece, and it worked in the Box Office and in the nominations. Against her are the same issues affecting Felicity Jones, with the caveat that this is the AFI’s closer, not exactly where you churn something to get killed. But in this crowded field, neither Saoirse or Felicity have a secured spot, at all.

    Emily Blunt: For Mary Poppins, because A Quiet Place was released too early in the year and is far too much… welp, a horror film. People are sleeping in on this one, and though she is way overdue FOR A NOMINATION… that’s actually the thing. But let’s focus only on Mary Poppins, which is the only hand that could, if not trounce, at least rock the boat of A Star is Born and Glenn Close’s even more egregious snubbing:

    1) It’s Mary Poppins yo’… not a beloved, a foundational Disney property. The buzz is strong, quietly strong and buzzy for this one.

    2) I mean, Walt financed  DISNEYWORLD with the profits of the original.

    3) Won Julie Andrews the Oscar.

    4) Disney shafted a Star Wars movie to give this one the holiday release. It’s an almost surefire billion dollar movie with legacy and prestige.

    And I wrote thousands of words instead of doing something more productive again… sorry for the length… but this is why I say don’t bet on anything yet.

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    na digga
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    <p>1. Olivia Colman<br> 2. Lady Gaga<br> 3. Viola Davis<br> 4. Melissa McCarthy<br> 5. Nicole Kidman </p> <p>With Colman back gaga isn’t the front runner anymore and Glenn Close might not make the cut ala Annette Bening. </p>

    I actually changed my mind. If Olivia Colman and Melissa McCarthy both get in there will be vote splitting for sure. And with Nicole Kidman and viola Davis I have a feeling either one of them is gonna shoot to the top competition when their films come out. So right now This is Lady Gaga’s Oscar but I’m still not sold on her winning actress especially with her basically guaranteed song win.

    1.lady Gaga
    2. Viola Davis
    3. Olivia Colman
    4. Nicole Kidman
    5.melissa McCarthy
    Alt – Saoirse Ronan(starting to get a lot of buzz)

    FYC Best Actress 2021: Viola Davis!!!

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    forwardswill
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    I mean she hit two major precursors for the critical dud that was The Girl on the Train so I’d argue that Hollywood is definitely wanting to embrace her talent as there was no reason for her to get so close then other than her performance. There is no doubt in my mind that she will win an Oscar some day.

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    GD
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    I really don’t get the Emily Blunt hype. How many flop movies will she have to go through until some of you understand that The Academy doesn’t like her

    Emily Blunt doesn’t really have flop movies… and her performances are always praised

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