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2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor (Part 5)

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  • RichardAniston
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    #1203170707

    So Phoenix is pretty much a lock for the win, no?

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    Babygirl
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    #1203170713

    So Phoenix is pretty much a lock for the win, no?

    I wouldn’t say anyone’s a lock right now but at the moment it’s Driver vs Phoenix.

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    ginnala
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    #1203170756

    Joker is starting to be a cultural phenomenon, I don’t see how Phoenix loses. I find his performance and the movie overrated but I’m clearly in the minority here.

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    Babygirl
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    #1203170763

    Joker is starting to be a cultural phenomenon, I don’t see how Phoenix loses. I find his performance and the movie overrated but I’m clearly in the minority here.

    Joker will be past it’s peak by voting season, not saying it will be forgotten but that it won’t have the same level of hype it had in October. I’d add on to why I don’t think Phoenix is a lock (or anybody for that matter) right now but I don’t wanna keep repeating myself cause I have said it in this thread before lol.

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    M: The Original
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    #1203170790

    They won’t ever deny a man in best actor for placement of an actual little boy in the category. Hollywood is a patriarchy and women get the brunt of this by aging out of lead roles getting sole blame for commercial failures they headline. And little girls can and do beat them for competitive prizes because the disdain for women and glass closet pedophilia are always on full display with them.

    Kathy Bates for Best Supporting Actress (Richard Jewell)

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    ginnala
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    #1203170796

    Joker will be past it’s peak by voting season, not saying it will be forgotten but that it won’t have the same level of hype it had in October. I’d add on to why I don’t think Phoenix is a lock (or anybody for that matter) right now but I don’t wanna keep repeating myself cause I have said it in this thread before lol.

    It’s similar to Bohemian Rhaspody to me. Mediocre/average reviews, massive box office success, cultural phenomenom and praised lead actor among the masses. So yeah the movie will be past its peak during voting season but it will still remain the biggest hit in contention, helping the lead actor to win at the end.

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    Babygirl
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    #1203170807

    It’s similar to Bohemian Rhaspody to me. Mediocre/average reviews, massive box office success, cultural phenomenom and praised lead actor among the masses. So yeah the movie will be past its peak during voting season but it will still remain the biggest hit in contention, helping the lead actor to win at the end.

    Well, BR was a biopic and Malek played Freddie Mercury, that’s more appealing to the AMPAS than someone playing a comic book character in a very dark film. Y’all are forgetting how big of a barrier genre bias can be.

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    Baby Clyde
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    #1203170919

    Phoenix isn’t a lock. I don’t even think of him as the favourite.

    Driver seems a far more likely choice to me and everything can change once the precursors start announcing. I’d imagine the likes of Banderas are going to be formidable competition.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203170928

    Well, BR was a biopic and Malek played Freddie Mercury, that’s more appealing to the AMPAS than someone playing a comic book character in a very dark film. Y’all are forgetting how big of a barrier genre bias can be.

    Joker’s not even a comic-book movie though. It’s barely based on the comics and nothing like any other film in its genre. If they was any sort of genre bias among industry professionals then Joker would not have won the Golden Lion at Venice.

    For Your Consideration.

    Best Picture: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Roman Griffin Davis
    Best Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell
    Best Supporting Actress: Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit, Joker
    Best Original Screenplay: Parasite

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    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203170976

    It’s becoming really facile to compare Joker to BR. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s getting in this year, but BR in no way sets a precedent for any blockbuster to make it in the lineup when Joker is subject to a completely different slate of films and appeals to the opposite voter block. Correlation is not causation, and BR didn’t get in because it was a blockbuster but because voters liked its content. The  box office increased its visibility tenfold which can happen with Joker, but BR in no way predicts voters’ reactions to the content of Joker.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

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    JROCK1772
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    #1203171072

    The hype surrounding Joaquin reminds me vaguely of Toni Collette last year. I honestly could see him getting snubbed in a few of the places where users are predicting him to win on the basis of genre bias and if performers with upcoming films gain enough praise to generate momentum over him. However, considering that Banderas, DiCaprio, and Egerton all have had the focus earlier on, it might be hard for anyone to break out significantly in the next few weeks, besides Driver. De Niro seems to be jumping up.

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    Icecreamben
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    #1203171196

    So Phoenix is pretty much a lock for the win, no?

    No.  Driver’s performance will resonate more with voters.

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    babypook
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    #1203171208

    So it’s true then that we’re only debating Joaquin/Driver?

    It’s a coin toss that’s lands Heads.

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    NoLogo
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    #1203171237

    I do not believe that Joker is going to play well with veteran/older Oscar voters at all.

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-voters-react-joker-avoiding-it-1245781

    I think it is a race between Driver and Pryce. Both films are less divisive.

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    Babygirl
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    #1203171411

    Joker’s not even a comic-book movie though. It’s barely based on the comics and nothing like any other film in its genre. If they was any sort of genre bias among industry professionals then Joker would not have won the Golden Lion at Venice.

    Again, Venice is a very small committee compared to thousands of Academy members, not the same thing.

    I didn’t say Joker is a comic book film but do you honestly think the voters will know it’s barely based on the comics? I just don’t think those who are biased will dissociate this film with superheor movies. There is going to be people who are going to get turned off just based on the fact that it’s the JOKER that Phoenix is playing. There’s already voters who refuse to even see the film and even Martin Scorsese said he was turned off by Joker because of how Arthur’s story became comic book associated.

    For me, ultimately, I don’t know if I make the next step into this character developing into a comic book character,” Scorsese said. “You follow? He develops into an abstraction. It doesn’t mean it’s bad art, it’s just not for me…The superhero films, as I’ve said, are another art form. They are not easy to make. There’s a lot of very talented people doing good work and a lot of young people really, really enjoy them.

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