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2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor (Part 8)

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  • smindymix
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    I keep going back to the genuine outpouring of cheers and applause from the Globes audience whenever Joaquin’s performance was referenced. And the praise fellow actors have given him unprompted.

    Whether or not you like the performance/movie, there’s clearly a lot of respect for it, so it’s silly to dismiss the acclaim as a “career” award ala Pitt or Dern.

    FreemanGriffin
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    Them giving Joaquin an award doesn’t mean that they just would follow the crowd. It can mean that they really thought he was the best.

    Yes, I acknowledged that – I was referring to the fact that if someone honestly felt that one of the others gave the best performance they ought not be swayed by the front-runner status and vote for who they think gave the best performance.

    Greg
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    #1203284865

    Taron Egerton even beat Leonardo DiCaprio at the Globes… Taron should have been nominated for his incredible performance. He even sing himself in the film, not like Rami Malek. It’s a tour-de-force of a performance.

    thatnerdgreg
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    I have such a feeling that Joaquin will get a Glenn Close. Winning all the important awards and losing the BIG one. And i think Banderas can win this, but my judgement can be clouded cause i am spaniard and i want him to win…

    I’m not predicting it, but it’s not impossible. However, if Joaquin loses I think it would be more comparable to Russell Crowe than Glenn Close. With Close, she was in a small film that very few actually cared about, and the actress who beat her had way more acclaim, while also being in a Best Picture nominee. Close’s narrative was mostly based around her being overdue rather than the notion that she gave the best performance in the category, as it seems like very few people legitimately thought she was the best. Meanwhile, Joaquin’s in a major contender that, and the people who want him to win want it to happen because they think he deserves it for his performance, not just his career, both of which apply to Crowe for A Beautiful Mind. Also, much like Crowe back then (from what I’ve seen, it seems like he’s calmed down considerably since then), Phoenix is seen as a difficult person, and several people believe he comes across as unlikable, although it’s worth noting that Joaquin’s difficulties are very different from Crowe’s. Phoenix has already ticked off a couple people recently, although I don’t think it’s enough to hurt him. But if his perceived bad behavior continues and gets worse (if it’s the same as it’s been, then it won’t stop him) then it’s possible he’ll have turned off enough voters to wind up losing. However, like I said, I only think that’ll happen if his behavior gets really bad. Most people seem to think the turning point where Crowe pissed off enough people to lose a sufficient number of votes was when he literally got into a physical fight, and I think it would take something big like that for Joaquin to lose. Much like Crowe, Phoenix has very well received performances that he’s competing against, and most people agree that Adam Driver is the next most likely winner. Much like Denzel who beat Crowe, Driver has a critically acclaimed performance, and he’s a huge name who many people really love, although unlike Denzel, he’s more of a newcomer, as Washington has been a big, respected name for years and has already won an Oscar (Antonio Banderas feels more similar in that regard, although he’s probably third place). But like I said, Phoenix will have to do something really bad to lose his support, cause acting like he did at the Globes (I know he has social anxiety, but as someone who’s suffered from similar issues, I don’t think that’s a legitimate excuse for rude behavior) won’t be enough to actually stop him from winning. So, Joaquin feels pretty strong right now, but I wouldn’t call him a lock. The only acting frontrunner who I’d say is a definite lock is Pitt, although Dern is close to being a lock. I won’t refer to her as one right now because while the odds are clearly very much in her favor, her narrative is clearly based more on her overdue status rather than her performance. Also, since I’m already talking about the other acting races, Zellweger is also in a strong spot right now, but nobody really cares about her film, only her performance, so it’s possible that could hurt her.

    John Berchmans
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    Just watched Joker again and I’m continuously awed by Phoenix’s performance. It might be the single most committed performance I’ve seen in a film. I’m very happy now that he’s the frontrunner to win this award.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    cinetastic
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    #1203286616

    Just watched Joker again and I’m continuously awed by Phoenix’s performance. It might be the single most committed performance I’ve seen in a film. I’m very happy now that he’s the frontrunner to win this award.

    Whenever I saw a gif or a screencap or a still of Joker, the scenes start to replay in my mind immediately. He is just amazing. His commitment is spectacular. I hope he wins. He should.

    Seafario
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    #1203287039

    hows that nomination going?

    Seafario
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    #1203287041

    well its too late now oscar votes have already gone through a while back so nothing can stop now

     

    thatnerdgreg
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    It looks like I’ll finally get see Pain and Glory tomorrow. Excited and hoping Antonio lives up the the immense hype his performance has received.

    Countess Luann
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    Remember when folks thought Driver had it all lol, some even mocked Phoenix not winning enough critics awards.

    THEN it only took the GG and unlike Bale who was labeled frontrunner after he won the Globe, Phoenix with a GG is like… the race is over.

    We’ve all seen that room when Glenn Close herself said Joaquin Phoenix. I doubt Academy Award winner Leonardo Dicaprio votes for Driver, in fact Phoenix might be winning with 80% of votes

    Michel Nardini
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    Remember when folks thought Driver had it all lol, some even mocked Phoenix not winning enough critics awards. THEN it only took the GG and unlike Bale who was labeled frontrunner after he won the Globe, Phoenix with a GG is like… the race is over. We’ve all seen that room when Glenn Close herself said Joaquin Phoenix. I doubt Academy Award winner Leonardo Dicaprio votes for Driver, in fact Phoenix might be winning with 80% of votes

    Definitely not. Driver won AACTA. It has few members, but many overlapping with AMPAS. Phoenix will win but I don’t believe he is a lock on Oldman’s level…

    Stegeo
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    Definitely not. Driver won AACTA. It has few members, but many overlapping with AMPAS. Phoenix will win but I don’t believe he is a lock on Oldman’s level…

    Yes he is lmao

    Michel Nardini
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    #1203288782

    Yes he is lmao

    Then how did he lose AACTA? I have evidence, you have not provided one in favor of your argument.

    Michel Nardini
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    #1203288785

    Also, DiCaprio is probably voting for himself…

    Eddy Q
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    #1203288856

    in fact Phoenix might be winning with 80% of votes

    That’s absurd. Most “locked” winners probably don’t win by much more than 50% and maybe even less sometimes. I doubt even sweepers like Daniel Day-Lewis and Cate Blanchett won with 80% of votes.

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