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2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor (Part 8)

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  • John Berchmans
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    #1203295975

    Actually Khan predicted (not sure if it was him) he would win before the trailer even came out, while a lot of people on his thread were laughing at him. He’s a god.

    I remember when the first Joker trailer came out someone edited the Wikiepdia page to say, “Joaquin Phoenix has been nominated for 3 Oscars and will win for Joker”. Whoever that person was is a god.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

    JackO
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    #1203295993

    Kudos to Tariq Khan for predicting Joaquin was a lock back in December before any of the major televised precursors.

    December? lol I was predicting Phoenix to win since Cannes.

    Arthur J. Fleck
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    #1203296799

    Where are those annoying Adam Driver stans now? We all always knew Joaquin was winning, but your blind stanning was obnoxious. The best actor win of the decade is coming.

    All I have are negative thoughts

    CateNicole
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    #1203296922

    That gif is everything, look at him!!!!

    Teresa Chavez
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    #1203296963

    Remember when Driver stans thought the race was over when he won AACTA, lol!

    And… stop the nonsense, Driver is NOT overdue, just like he’s not winning in 2-3 years lol.

    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203297247

    Where are those annoying Adam Driver stans now? We all always knew Joaquin was winning, but your blind stanning was obnoxious. The best actor win of the decade is coming.

    I’m just taking in the irony of you calling other people annoying, obnoxious, and blind stans. Be happy that your favorite’s winning, don’t be a jerk about it.

    Teresa Chavez
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    #1203297286

    I’m just taking in the irony of you calling other people annoying, obnoxious, and blind stans. Be happy that your favorite’s winning, don’t be a jerk about it.

    The « DC comic bias » argument aged badly.

    BlackBalls
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    #1203297304

    To be fair, I didn’t post on this forum until now but used to read it a lot. It seemed super obvious Joaquin would win. For some reason, people thought Driver could and would fight Joker fans. Now not only will he win but Joker has an undeserved but still impressive 11 Oscar nominations. Crazy.

    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203297417

    The « DC comic bias » argument aged badly.

    I only ever made that argument several months ago before it won the Golden Lion. Once that happened, it became clear the film would be a bigger contender than initially expected.

    wattsgold
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    #1203297559

    Driver’s definitely second. Everybody loves Leo, bu he won for his last performance, and this one, while acclaimed, is not as well received as his competitors. Leo’s a case where he has the film and the performance to get an easy nomination, but once the voting for winners happens, he’s likely gonna come in last since the other contenders’ performance elicited more passion, and he’s just won. The fact that he lost the Globe to someone who didn’t even got nominated seems to support my theory. Moving onto the other contenders, Banderas and Pryce both got raves, but they’re in relatively small contenders, certainly not as big Joaquin, Adam, or Leo’s films. And since you say that Driver’s film is being eviscerated, that must mean that Antonio and Jonathon’s films have been shredded down to their very last atoms. Driver has a highly acclaimed performance that won the most critics awards, and he’s in a film that did very well in terms of nominations. He feels like a very safe second. And sure, Marriage Story isn’t as big a contender as we all initially thought it would be, but the fact that it’s winning an above the line category like Supporting Actress means it’s not getting eviscerated like you said.

    Since when were “The Two Popes” and “P&G” going to “sweep” at the Oscars? Popes even did so much better than expected because the majority had pushed Pryce out of the boat. The problem all along was that some of you guys basically gave Marriage Story the A Star is Born treatment, claiming that it would take Actor, Actress, Director and even Picture at some point.
    History repeated itself; all of it backfired. Now it’s even possible it ends with just one Oscar. It’s definitely been a failure in terms of major wins at the televised awards (which at the end have a bigger effect, if not we’d have Lupita in Best Actress). Someone else posted that the campaign for Scarlette shifted when Renee started to crush the women, I fear the same happened with Driver’s team. Could Netflix be focusing solely on Dern given she’s basically the flag bearer of the movie?

    wattsgold
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    #1203297573

    Where are those annoying Adam Driver stans now? We all always knew Joaquin was winning, but your blind stanning was obnoxious. The best actor win of the decade is coming.

    I keep remembering his reaction to the shooting at the talk show. Oscar or not, those few seconds with the quiet laugh plus that look are pure acting magic. JP deserves this.

    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203297617

    Since when were “The Two Popes” and “P&G” going to “sweep” at the Oscars? Popes even did so much better than expected because the majority had pushed Pryce out of the boat. The problem all along was that some of you guys basically gave Marriage Story the A Star is Born treatment, claiming that it would take Actor, Actress, Director and even Picture at some point. History repeated itself; all of it backfired. Now it’s even possible it ends with just one Oscar. It’s definitely been a failure in terms of major wins at the televised awards (which at the end have a bigger effect, if not we’d have Lupita in Best Actress). Someone else posted that the campaign for Scarlette shifted when Renee started to crush the women, I fear the same happened with Driver’s team. Could Netflix be focusing solely on Dern given she’s basically the flag bearer of the movie?

    Its guaranteed an Oscar win in Supporting Actress though. Yes, it’s not as big a contender as it was originally predicted to be, but when a film is seen as a lock to win an above the line category, it shouldn’t be seen as an Oscar failure. A real Oscar failure is something like The Farewell. I don’t like saying that since I adored that film, but at one point it was being predicted to get nominations in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay. Instead, it got completely shut out. That’s an Oscar failure. Marriage Story got nominated in Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress (which it’s widely expected to win), Screenplay, and Score. That’s not a failure, even if it was once thought to be much stronger than it turned out to be.

    wattsgold
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    #1203297632

    Its guaranteed an Oscar win in Supporting Actress though. Yes, it’s not as big a contender as it was originally predicted to be, but when a film is seen as a lock to win an above the line category, it shouldn’t be seen as an Oscar failure. A real Oscar failure is something like The Farewell. I don’t like saying that since I adored that film, but at one point it was being predicted to get nominations in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay. Instead, it got completely shut out. That’s an Oscar failure. Marriage Story got nominated in Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress (which it’s widely expected to win), Screenplay, and Score. That’s not a failure, even if it was once thought to be much stronger than it turned out to be.

    I know you’re trying to make it seem less drastic than what it already is, but once a movie goes the Boyhood route at the Oscars there’s some failure and disappointment in that. And I’m someone who wanted that movie to get more than 1 Oscar, but historically (and considering its at-the-time hype), yes, it failed.

    Babygirl
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    #1203297657

    Of course this thread is still a tragic cesspool, yikes. Lemme head back out.

    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203297661

    I know you’re trying to make it seem less drastic than what it already is, but once a movie goes the Boyhood route at the Oscars there’s some failure and disappointment in that. And I’m someone who wanted that movie to get more than 1 Oscar, but historically (and considering its at-the-time hype), yes, it failed.

    I get where you’re coming from, but just because a film fails in terms of expected wins doesn’t make it an overall failure. Most filmmakers would kill to have a film of theirs get six nominations, five of them in above the line categories, and one of them is almost certainly going to translate into a win (and it’s not completely out of the running in Screenplay either). The films not as successful as it once seemed it would be, but it’s still a success. Same goes for Boyhood.

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