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2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

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    Paul Sheehan
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    #1203161299

    Let’s use this topic to talk about just the Best Picture line-up. How many nominees will there be? What will win?

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    MMartin
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    #1203161338

    Right now I lean towards 9 nominees, with my reasoning:

    1. The Irishman (Scorese, huge Netflix campaign, critically acclaimed)
    2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Tarantino, story about Hollywood, critically acclaimed, box office hit, A-list cast)
    3. Marriage Story (Big netflix campaign, critically acclaimed, type of movie actors will love)
    4. 1917 (War film, looks like a technical achievement, movie could walk away with tons of nods, appeal to old voters)
    5. Bombshell (Politically relevant, high praise from early screening, A-list appeal, feels like a Vice/Big Short type nominee)
    6. JoJo Rabbit (Politically relevant, won the TIFF audience award, seems like a crowd pleaser with the people loving it really loving it)
    7. Little Women (big rising director in the industry, brings female diversity, classic story that has been Best Picture nominated before, good early word of mouth from screenings, seems like it could be a Christmas time hit)
    8. Parasite (Amour/Roma foreign film crossover nominee, amazing reviews, maybe the most critically acclaimed film of the year, good box office performance for foreign film, politically relevant, brings diversity to nominees).
    9. The Farewell (Huguley critically acclaimed, brings diversity to nominees with a female director and all Asian cast, good box office performance considering budget, A24 big push this year)

    I would rank Queen & Slim, Joker, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v Ferrari as the next biggest contenders, but they all have big detractors for me at the moment than my listed nominees.

    No idea with winner. Scorsese’s The Irishman seems like pure bait and he is a director who the Academy would love to give a 2nd Oscar to. JoJo Rabbit feels like a film that will do well with preferential voting and older voters. 1917 could surprise if a huge box office hit like a Saving Private Ryan (Unlikely but who knows).

    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by MMartin.
    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by MMartin.
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    Cinephile
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    #1203161375

    Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
    The Irishman
    Marriage Story
    Parasite
    Little Women
    1917
    Jojo Rabbit
     

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    Foolio
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    #1203161420

    Frontrunners

    Marriage Story
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    The Irishman
    Parasite

    On the brink

    1917
    Little Women

    Next in line

    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    Jojo Rabbit
    Bombshell
    Joker

    Strong possibilities

    The Farewell
    Ford v. Ferrari
    The Two Popes
    Dolor y gloria
    Hustlers
    Dolemite Is My Name

    Possibilities

    Waves
    Just Mercy
    Us
    The Lighthouse
    Booksmart
    Queen & Slim
    Knives Out
    Ad Astra
    Uncut Gems
    Richard Jewell

    Shouldn’t be written off

    The Aeronauts
    Honey Boy
    Judy
    Rocketman
    Dark Waters
    Downton Abbey
    Clemency
    The Good Liar
    The Report
    Avengers: Endgame
    Toy Story 4

    Longer shots

    The Last Black Man in San Francisco
    A Hidden Life
    Star Wars: the Rise of Skywalker
    The Peanut Butter Falcon

    Theoretical possibilities

    Motherless Brooklyn
    The King
    Cats
    Luce
    Wild Rose

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    babypook
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    #1203161423

    I’d like to see a few surprises. Iv e never been much of a purist thinking less is more in BP.

    The Irishman looks scary right now and with Netflix behind it I think it’s the favorite to win. Personally I’m there for Thelma Schoonmaker.

    So 10 films in the running is fine with me.

    Agree with what’s postulated thus far.

    Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
    Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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    #1203161426
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    babypook
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    #1203161428

    I just have a gnawing feeling that The Irishman will fizzle out once it gets closer to Oscar night, but it makes the most sense currently.

    1. The Irishman
    2. Marriage Story
    3. Jojo Rabbit
    4. Parasite
    5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    6. 1917
    7. Little Women
    8. Joker
    9. Bombshell

    Please don’t get my hopes up. Lol.

    Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
    Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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    Cordelia
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    #1203161455

    I feel confident in my top 9 but don’t really have a 10th film I feel confident enough to place.

    1. The Irishman: This seems like the contender to beat. It is a reuniting event for talent that has acclaim for critics awards, star power for actors awards, and prestige for Best Picture. I’m not really going to analyse this further until after seeing it, but I am convinced it is the frontrunner for Best Picture even if I am skeptical of some elements being contenders (De Niro/Visual Effects)

    2. Marriage Story: As counter-programming to The Irishman, this was a great awards push choice by Netflix. A less intimidating film in scope than The Irishman, as well as a more personal and relatable film, this seems to be a showcase for actors that have been building awards momentum for a while.

    3. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood: I might move this down later, but this is Tarantino homaging Hollywood history and creating a power fantasy out of erasing one of the most traumatic events of its era! This is catnip to a certain voter crowd.

    4. 1917: The only reason this isn’t higher is because it hasn’t been seen yet. That having been said, ON PAPER this sounds like a massive contender. Pseudo One-shot Hard R war movie by Sam Mendes seems like a film that has a variety of narratives to success.

    5. Jojo Rabbit: I really disliked this film when seeing it, but a lot of what made me dislike it is what will appeal to Academy voters. It’s wishy-washy with satire, it never really goes for the insight that its premise could deliver, its comedy is broad, it offers redemption arcs and sentimental moments. This is not as edgy a film as the marketing would make it seem. It is comfort food. When a Christmas day house of an Oscar voter is divided between The Irishman or Marriage Story or Parasite or Little Women (guess which family member wants most for some degree of my demographic theory), Jojo Rabbit is the lukewarm compromise film that will win out.

    6. Parasite: The only reason this isn’t top 3 is because it’s a foreign language film from a country that never even received a Foreign Language nomination. That having been said, as a crowdpleaser at festivals with buzz and acclaim, this is unable to be ignored. The new non-US members of the Academy might further boost this.

    These are the 6 I call locks

    7. Bombshell: Reflecting a lot of the topics of the day – #MeToo, power dynamics at workplaces, conservative media – this is a film that will definitely get discussed a lot. Will it get into Best Picture? Maybe. It is performance driven, and films such as Vice and The Big Short show the Academy likes films that deconstruct recent US history, even if this is closer.

    8. The Farewell: This is a very crowdpleasing film that is both accessible and offers insights into cultural divides. A subtitled film that doesn’t get to benefit from international voters due to being a US film may be an obstacle, but I believe this is a film that has a pathway to a nomination.

    9. Little Women: I’m probably being too stingy with my placement of this, but I do that because it’s been done before. That having been said, Greta Gerwig great goodwill, Florence Pugh fan positivity, Timothee Chalamet twink communities, and gorgeous cinematography will provide help.

    Now for 10, I have a shortlist

    • Joker: Massive hit, a lot of discussion. Maybe too edgy and lacking in screenwriting department. Has a real pathway.
    • A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood: Empathetic crowdpleaser. The only reason it isn’t in my 10 is Won’t You Be My Neighbour didn’t get a slam-dunk Documentary nomination, so maybe Mr. Rogers is too much of a USA thing. Also, Tom Hanks keeps getting snubbed for nominations, so maybe that bad luck will extend to his movie.
    • Ford V Ferrari: I’m super-skeptical about this. I think the “steak-eater crowd” is going to be too busy with The Irishman and 1917 to go for this, and I also feel like this film might be a minor commercial disappointment. But eh, cars go fast, underdog stories happen, beep beep let’s ride.
    • The Lighthouse: ALL HAIL WILLEM DAFOE

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    The Artist Formerly Known as Xander Cassel
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    #1203161465

    I see 8 or 9 nominees. Unfortunately, my nemesis Jojo Rabbit is among them.

    1. Parasite
    2. The Irishman 
    3. Marriage Story
    4. Bombshell
    5. Jojo Rabbit
    6. Little Women
    7. 1917
    8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 
    9. Joker
    10. The Farewell

    Also, while I’m at it–fuck Jojo Rabbit

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    Chimichanggas
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    #1203161533

    I also think Jojo Rabbit should not be nominated but is big enough to missed. Numbers 1 to 6 are locks.

    1. The Irishman
    2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    3. Parasite
    4. Marriage Story
    5. Little Women
    6. 1917
    7. Ford v Ferrari
    8. Jojo Rabbit
    9. Joker
    10. Us

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    abelfenty
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    #1203161604

    I’m saying 8 or 9 nominees.

    1. Marriage Story
    2. The Irishman
    3. Jojo Rabbit
    4. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
    5. Parasite
    6. The Farewell
    7. Joker
    8. 1917
    9. Little Women

    Next in line:
    Bombshell
    The Two Popes
    Ford v Ferrari
    A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
    Us

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    Elazul
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    #1203161615

    My bet is 9 but would be great to have another full 10 lineup again!

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    JanisEye
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    #1203161657

    Parasite
    Marriage Story
    The Irishman
    Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
    1917
    Little Women
    Jojo Rabbit
    Joker
    The Two Popes
    The Farewell

    Next:
    Bombshell
    Ford v Ferrari
    A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
    Us

     

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    nevkm
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    #1203161672

    1. The Irishman
    2. Parasite
    3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    4. Marriage Story
    5. Jojo Rabbit
    6. 1917
    7. Little Women
    8. The Two Popes
    9. Joker

    Next in line:
    Bombshell
    The Farewell
    Ford v Ferrari
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

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    Nikhil
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    #1203161682

    Locks:
    The Irishman
    Marriage Story
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Parasite
    Jojo Rabbit
    Little Women
    1917

    Last two slots up for grabs (bc the year is more competitive I would guess 9, I don’t think we’ve ever gotten 10 in the new BP set up)

    My guess is: 8. Bombshell 9. Joker

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

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