2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

[ManuelcolonParticipant Joined: Nov 20th, 2013 Topics: 27 Posts: 521 View Predictions]

#1203182484

Okay i decided to update my predictions a little bit and get my thoughts together on the categories, and i cannot avoid to think that Ford Vs Ferrari is the movie that can take Best Picture from the other contenders.

It is having strong box office, but it’s not just that what makes me believe it is the top choice, the reason why it is earning the coins is because of mass support, the public loves it and even tho critics don’t think it’s the best movie of the year, they are showing support and to me that is a big indicator of a possibility where it translates on awards this season. Voters will eat it up.

Jojo Rabbit is thought to be the crowd pleaser, but this overcomes it, great critical reception (not 10/10), great box office, general public loves it (A+ on Cinemascore) and will 100% be nominated for Editing and Sound, which to me it seems like it can totally get into Director, Screenplay and maybe Actor (Bale).

What do you guys think? It is a very accessible and safe choice where it checks all the right boxes.

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[babypookParticipant Joined: Nov 4th, 2010 Topics: 120 Posts: 16673 View Predictions]

#1203182486

My thoughts are that your hunches are as valid as anybody else’s. Some feel divisive doesn’t matter, especially if it supports their favorites, and others that it does. Some feel box office is critical and others not so much.

My own thoughts are that the team of Mangold/Damon/Bale, as much as I respect their work, is going to have a humongous hill to climb to defeat a director like Scorsese, who carries the gravitas felt necessary for the win.
I haven’t seen it yet and have decided to put it off for as long as possible, so my perspective is coming from not knowing what’s going on in the film.

• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by  teri.
• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by  teri.

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[ManuelcolonParticipant Joined: Nov 20th, 2013 Topics: 27 Posts: 521 View Predictions]

#1203182491

babypook wrote:

My thoughts are that your hunches are as valid as anybody else’s. Some feel divisive doesn’t matter, especially if it supports their favorites, and others that it does. Some feel box office is critical and others not so much.

My own thoughts are that the team of Mangold/Damon/Bale, as much as I respect their work, is going to have a humongous hill to climb to defeat a director like Scorsese, who carries the gravitas felt necessary for the win.
I haven’t seen it yet and have decided to put it off for as long as possible, so my perspective is coming from not knowing what’s going on in the film.

Yes, exactly. Maybe Scorcese can still win Director, but Mangold seems like a safe choice for a nomination (and i just remembered that he “won” at the Hollywood Film Awards).

I won’t see the contenders maybe until january, but considering what people discuss here and what i read in other pages, i’m trying to put together a nice list.

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[John BerchmansParticipant Joined: Jan 22nd, 2018 Topics: 2 Posts: 795 View Predictions]

#1203182517

Manuelcolon wrote:

Okay i decided to update my predictions a little bit and get my thoughts together on the categories, and i cannot avoid to think that Ford Vs Ferrari is the movie that can take Best Picture from the other contenders. It is having strong box office, but it’s not just that what makes me believe it is the top choice, the reason why it is earning the coins is because of mass support, the public loves it and even tho critics don’t think it’s the best movie of the year, they are showing support and to me that is a big indicator of a possibility where it translates on awards this season. Voters will eat it up. Jojo Rabbit is thought to be the crowd pleaser, but this overcomes it, great critical reception (not 10/10), great box office, general public loves it (A+ on Cinemascore) and will 100% be nominated for Editing and Sound, which to me it seems like it can totally get into Director, Screenplay and maybe Actor (Bale). What do you guys think? It is a very accessible and safe choice where it checks all the right boxes.

Ford v Ferrari is for sure a contender, but I don’t think it can win. The main reason why is that it’s too traditional. The Oscar’s just don’t give big awards to films like these anymore. Even if a film does play it safe, they have to at least give off the impression that they’re doing something bold, like Green Book did, to win. I actually think FvF is riskier in the execution of its premise than Jojo Rabbit is, but in the end Jojo Rabbit does have the bolder premise, and that will make the academy more likely to vote for it.

Another problem is that FvF can’t win anything else above the line. It’s hopelessly outmatched in every category. Jojo Rabbit will win Adapted Screenplay, Parasite will win Director, OUATIH will win Original Screenplay, Marrige Story, Irishman, and Joker will all win acting awards. Those films are bigger contenders for that reason.

Lastly, it doesn’t seem to have the same passion behind it that Jojo or Parasite or the Netflix films do. All of those films have pretty loud and arduous fans. Ford v Ferrari is well liked, but I don’t hear anyone call it a masterpiece or give it perfect scores left and right. Even Joker had more perfect reviews than FvF does.

I think FvF is a great film, but it’s just not Best Picture winning material. And that’s my very long, in depth analysis on it. I guess I felt I should match your length. It’s a lock for a non though, and so is Bale. You heard it here first.

• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by  John Berchmans.
• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by  John Berchmans.

For Your Consideration:

Best Picture: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari
Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
Best Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell, Al Pacino
Best Supporting Actress: Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit, Joker
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite, Ford v Ferrari

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[babypookParticipant Joined: Nov 4th, 2010 Topics: 120 Posts: 16673 View Predictions]

#1203182534

Manuelcolon wrote:

Yes, exactly. Maybe Scorcese can still win Director, but Mangold seems like a safe choice for a nomination (and i just remembered that he “won” at the Hollywood Film Awards).

I won’t see the contenders maybe until january, but considering what people discuss here and what i read in other pages, i’m trying to put together a nice list.

I’ve been confident for some time that Bong Joon-ho will win Director. Not just because he’s more than worthy, but because it will make the Academy feel good about themselves. That could be enough to mollify them and that’s why I’m hesitant to predict any other significant win.

Picture could go to The Irishman. It simply has too much going for it, including the legendary Thelma Schoonmaker. That editing win, while not as consistent, usually belongs to the BP winner. He’s got an Oscar winning writer in Zaillian, and that team of ‘are you kidding me?’ actors to solidify things. Plus it has a score by Robbie Robertson, which I couldn’t believe at first.

I’d say the film is a safe bet, although I prefer to take risks just to compete against myself.

• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by  teri.
• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by  teri.
• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by  teri.

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[Lil TonyParticipant Joined: Sep 17th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 1514 View Predictions]

#1203182669

Luca wrote:

Huh? This makes zero sense.

it makes every sense in the World. You’re being delusional if you think the Academy would snub a critical and commercial hit which set trends in this age and time. Remember how most people dressed like Joker few weeks ago for Halloween. If Bohemian Rhapsody could be that high on Oscars ground, then Joker is a sure thing for a best picture nomination. Joker has everything going for it. It’s happening

FYC
Best Actor :.
Taron Egerton = Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix = Joker
Eddie Murphy = Dolemite is my Name

Best actress :
Charlize Theron = Bombshell
Alfre Woodard = Clemency

Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt = Once upon a time in Hollywood

Supporting Actress =
Margot Robbie = Any of her two performances.
Dame Maggie Smith = Downton Abbey
Octavia Spencer = Luce

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[Lil TonyParticipant Joined: Sep 17th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 1514 View Predictions]

#1203182673

kellis wrote:

This is highly questionable lol.

it’s totally not. You can’t win Venice top prize, be a critical hit, gross up to a billion Dollars, have a lauded and memorable central character and still miss a best picture nomination. It’s almost 2020. The Academy can’t handle the risk of making such mistake

FYC
Best Actor :.
Taron Egerton = Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix = Joker
Eddie Murphy = Dolemite is my Name

Best actress :
Charlize Theron = Bombshell
Alfre Woodard = Clemency

Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt = Once upon a time in Hollywood

Supporting Actress =
Margot Robbie = Any of her two performances.
Dame Maggie Smith = Downton Abbey
Octavia Spencer = Luce

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[Lil TonyParticipant Joined: Sep 17th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 1514 View Predictions]

#1203182675

babypook wrote:

Have you seen A Boy and his Dog by L Q Jones? It’s an adaptation from genius Harlan Ellison. So if you haven’t, I’d say you’re not the biggest movie fan yourself. Just sayin’

that one is 100% different from Joker.

FYC
Best Actor :.
Taron Egerton = Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix = Joker
Eddie Murphy = Dolemite is my Name

Best actress :
Charlize Theron = Bombshell
Alfre Woodard = Clemency

Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt = Once upon a time in Hollywood

Supporting Actress =
Margot Robbie = Any of her two performances.
Dame Maggie Smith = Downton Abbey
Octavia Spencer = Luce

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[babypookParticipant Joined: Nov 4th, 2010 Topics: 120 Posts: 16673 View Predictions]

#1203182681

Lil Tony wrote:

that one is 100% different from Joker.

It’s a cult classic phenom and lovers of films are aware of it. It doesn’t have anything to do with a comparison to any film. lol. Geez Tony

Here: https://youtu.be/mTck2RnpPy4

• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by  teri.
• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 6 days ago by  teri.

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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[kellisSpectator Joined: Jul 30th, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 3362 View Predictions]

#1203182776

Lil Tony wrote:

it’s totally not. You can’t win Venice top prize, be a critical hit, gross up to a billion Dollars, have a lauded and memorable central character and still miss a best picture nomination. It’s almost 2020. The Academy can’t handle the risk of making such mistake

I meant in regards to you saying that people aren’t “movie lovers” for not predicting it lol. And it’s not really a risk or a mistake when it’s actually critically polarizing and probably won’t resonate with a lot of voters.

“No user starts this shady” - someone culturally relevant.

Also got banned because...reasons? So, I guess ciao.

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[Lil TonyParticipant Joined: Sep 17th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 1514 View Predictions]

#1203182943

kellis wrote:

I meant in regards to you saying that people aren’t “movie lovers” for not predicting it lol. And it’s not really a risk or a mistake when it’s actually critically polarizing and probably won’t resonate with a lot of voters.

oh God of Oscars, please don’t listen to Kellis. She’s a very nice poster here and a fellow lover of Emily Blunt, but she dislikes the mighty Joker. Academy voters prove her wrong, please. Do the right thing

FYC
Best Actor :.
Taron Egerton = Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix = Joker
Eddie Murphy = Dolemite is my Name

Best actress :
Charlize Theron = Bombshell
Alfre Woodard = Clemency

Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt = Once upon a time in Hollywood

Supporting Actress =
Margot Robbie = Any of her two performances.
Dame Maggie Smith = Downton Abbey
Octavia Spencer = Luce

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[LucaKeymaster Joined: Jun 23rd, 2017 Topics: 31 Posts: 4630 View Predictions]

#1203182945

Lil Tony wrote:

it makes every sense in the World. You’re being delusional if you think the Academy would snub a critical and commercial hit which set trends in this age and time. Remember how most people dressed like Joker few weeks ago for Halloween. If Bohemian Rhapsody could be that high on Oscars ground, then Joker is a sure thing for a best picture nomination. Joker has everything going for it. It’s happening

Oh I totally agree that ignoring “Joker” as a viable contender is being slightly delusional, but predicting a movie for some award does not make you more or less of a movie lover. Loving movies has zero correlation with the accuracy of your predictions. That’s what made zero sense to me.

Oscar FYC - Lupita Nyong'o & Elisabeth Moss ("Us") - Best Actress & Supporting Actress. It must happen; otherwise the Tethered are coming.

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[Lil TonyParticipant Joined: Sep 17th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 1514 View Predictions]

#1203182949

babypook wrote:

It’s a cult classic phenom and lovers of films are aware of it. It doesn’t have anything to do with a comparison to any film. lol. Geez Tony Here: https://youtu.be/mTck2RnpPy4

Joker is all I see

FYC
Best Actor :.
Taron Egerton = Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix = Joker
Eddie Murphy = Dolemite is my Name

Best actress :
Charlize Theron = Bombshell
Alfre Woodard = Clemency

Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt = Once upon a time in Hollywood

Supporting Actress =
Margot Robbie = Any of her two performances.
Dame Maggie Smith = Downton Abbey
Octavia Spencer = Luce

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[BabygirlParticipant Joined: Sep 12th, 2018 Topics: 2 Posts: 1342 View Predictions]

#1203182954

kellis wrote:

I meant in regards to you saying that people aren’t “movie lovers” for not predicting it lol. And it’s not really a risk or a mistake when it’s actually critically polarizing and probably won’t resonate with a lot of voters.

Kellis is always serving hot tea and they hate to see it!

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[babypookParticipant Joined: Nov 4th, 2010 Topics: 120 Posts: 16673 View Predictions]

#1203182957

Lil Tony wrote:

Joker is all I see

ok Tony. A little tunnel-visionee for me but whatever you say.

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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