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2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1203182974

    I am heading out to see The Irishman later this morning. I am curious about the “de-aging” technology and how that affects my feelings about the performances. I am concerned about whether I will like the film – I am sure I will admire the film-making, the editing, the technical aspects, but will I enjoy the content? 3 1/2 hours is a major investment in sitting in a movie theater! I am mostly just curious about it, more than excited by it… I am trying to keep an open mind, worried it will be “sympathy for gangsters”…

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    Manuelcolon
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    #1203183127

    Ford v Ferrari is for sure a contender, but I don’t think it can win. The main reason why is that it’s too traditional. The Oscar’s just don’t give big awards to films like these anymore. Even if a film does play it safe, they have to at least give off the impression that they’re doing something bold, like Green Book did, to win. I actually think FvF is riskier in the execution of its premise than Jojo Rabbit is, but in the end Jojo Rabbit does have the bolder premise, and that will make the academy more likely to vote for it.

    Another problem is that FvF can’t win anything else above the line. It’s hopelessly outmatched in every category. Jojo Rabbit will win Adapted Screenplay, Parasite will win Director, OUATIH will win Original Screenplay, Marrige Story, Irishman, and Joker will all win acting awards. Those films are bigger contenders for that reason.

    Lastly, it doesn’t seem to have the same passion behind it that Jojo or Parasite or the Netflix films do. All of those films have pretty loud and arduous fans. Ford v Ferrari is well liked, but I don’t hear anyone call it a masterpiece or give it perfect scores left and right. Even Joker had more perfect reviews than FvF does.

    I think FvF is a great film, but it’s just not Best Picture winning material. And that’s my very long, in depth analysis on it. I guess I felt I should match your length. It’s a lock for a non though, and so is Bale. You heard it here first.

    I do agree with everything that you said, specially with the fact that it is too traditional and maybe that will be the reason why The Academy backs down on awarding it, the reason why i feel it is over Jojo is what you pointed out, the divisive factor, i do feel like that is what will keep Jojo from winning, besides the huge general audiences support.

    And one of the reasons why i think its chances are so big is because also of what you said, that it seems to be great but not a masterpiece, after Green Book my mind just stood with the fact that a movie does not need to be 10/10 to win.

    I do hope something like Parasite wins, because i have seen it and i think the same as everyone else, it’s a 10/10 film amazingly constructed and with lot of thought and creativity.

    And thank you for equaling the length of my post haha. I am scared to put Bale because even tho i know he’s getting in i don’t like to take out my dark horses.

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    babypook
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    #1203183263

    I do agree with everything that you said, specially with the fact that it is too traditional and maybe that will be the reason why The Academy backs down on awarding it, the reason why i feel it is over Jojo is what you pointed out, the divisive factor, i do feel like that is what will keep Jojo from winning, besides the huge general audiences support.

    And one of the reasons why i think its chances are so big is because also of what you said, that it seems to be great but not a masterpiece, after Green Book my mind just stood with the fact that a movie does not need to be 10/10 to win.

    I do hope something like Parasite wins, because i have seen it and i think the same as everyone else, it’s a 10/10 film amazingly constructed and with lot of thought and creativity.

    And thank you for equaling the length of my post haha. I am scared to put Bale because even tho i know he’s getting in i don’t like to take out my dark horses.

    That’s where John’s greatest strength lies. His kickass reviews and analysis.

    It’s that win @TIFF for JoJo that trips me up. It’s a great start but far from a guarantee that it’ll line up with the Academy. I need to wait until the precursors before my reservations are quelled.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 4 weeks ago by teri.
    • This reply was modified 8 months, 4 weeks ago by teri.

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    thesmark88
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    #1203183274

    <p style=”text-align: center;”>

    I am heading out to see The Irishman later this morning. I am curious about the “de-aging” technology and how that affects my feelings about the performances. I am concerned about whether I will like the film – I am sure I will admire the film-making, the editing, the technical aspects, but will I enjoy the content? 3 1/2 hours is a major investment in sitting in a movie theater! I am mostly just curious about it, more than excited by it… I am trying to keep an open mind, worried it will be “sympathy for gangsters”…

    </p>
     

    First, there is ABSOLUTELY no sympathy for gangsters, it doesn’t even show a gangsters life as being fun for the purposes of seducing the audience, it’s just sad. Second, I think it’s a good 2 1/2 hour movie that’s concluded with one of the best final hours of the decade. Make of that what you will

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203183285

    the reason why i feel it is over Jojo is what you pointed out, the divisive factor, i do feel like that is what will keep Jojo from winning, besides the huge general audiences support.

    What I was saying was that Jojo Rabbit had a bolder premise (a Nazi satire film) than FvF (a racing drama), and even though the latter’s execution is riskier Jojo will be seen as bolder because of the premise. I actually don’t think Jojo Rabbit is as divisive as a lot of people think it is. The only controversy happened pretty early in the film’s release cycle, and had no effect on it victory of the People’s Choice Award, which was voted on by critics and audiences at TIFF. And it wouldn’t matter if the controversy was still strong. Green Book had way more controversy (Viggo saying the N-word, Peter Farrely’s assault allegations, Shirley’s parents saying it wasn’t historically accurate) and still won. Even Bohemian Rhapsody had more controversy and still walked away with the most awards. Oscar voters don’t seem to care about controversy most of the time, and if anything it seems to motivate them more to award a film. That’s why everyone in the rumor mill is pointing to Johansson being the frontrunner for Marriage Story. And why Joker looks to be one of this year’s Oscar juggernauts. There’s a saying that “no publicity is bad publicity”, and that’s being proven very true at the Oscar’s.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1203183504

    I had very mixed feelings about The Irishman – well made, certainly; well acted by the three leads, yes – especially Pacino and Pesci – but how are we supposed to take it as a whole? Scorsese has so much affection for these monsters but that doesn’t mean I have to feel the same way, no matter how hard a film-maker tries to manipulate me into doing so. All of the elements were there but the content does matter, at least for me. My gut tells me Marriage Story is going to win BP – but I have to wait and see more of the potential nominees, particularly 1917 – the trailer for it explaining the continuous shot (Roger Deakins will win Best Cinematography) makes me think it has a strong chance too.

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    #1203183520

    Darlings, The Irishman was not what I expected…

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    babypook
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    #1203183528

    Darlings, The Irishman was not what I expected…

    My tongue is bleeding.

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    Lil Tony
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    #1203183558

    Darlings, The Irishman was not what I expected…

    is it good or bad?

    FYC:

    Chromatica: Album of the Year, Best Pop Vocal Album.

    Rain On Me: Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, Best Music Video.

    Alice: Best Pop Solo Performance

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    Manuelcolon
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    #1203183578

    What I was saying was that Jojo Rabbit had a bolder premise (a Nazi satire film) than FvF (a racing drama), and even though the latter’s execution is riskier Jojo will be seen as bolder because of the premise. I actually don’t think Jojo Rabbit is as divisive as a lot of people think it is. The only controversy happened pretty early in the film’s release cycle, and had no effect on it victory of the People’s Choice Award, which was voted on by critics and audiences at TIFF. And it wouldn’t matter if the controversy was still strong. Green Book had way more controversy (Viggo saying the N-word, Peter Farrely’s assault allegations, Shirley’s parents saying it wasn’t historically accurate) and still won. Even Bohemian Rhapsody had more controversy and still walked away with the most awards. Oscar voters don’t seem to care about controversy most of the time, and if anything it seems to motivate them more to award a film. That’s why everyone in the rumor mill is pointing to Johansson being the frontrunner for Marriage Story. And why Joker looks to be one of this year’s Oscar juggernauts. There’s a saying that “no publicity is bad publicity”, and that’s being proven very true at the Oscar’s.

    With everything you said, did you see Jojo already? Do you think it would be a deserving winner?

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    Manuelcolon
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    #1203183584

    That’s where John’s greatest strength lies. His kickass reviews and analysis.

    It’s that win @TIFF for JoJo that trips me up. It’s a great start but far from a guarantee that it’ll line up with the Academy. I need to wait until the precursors before my reservations are quelled.

    Totally! I just need a few nominations to come out so i can start noticing what is lacking and gaining.

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    Babygirl
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    #1203183589

    I loved Jojo Rabbit but I don’t know, I don’t get Best Picture winner vibes from it at all.

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    #1203183810

    is it good or bad?

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1203183822

    I would put Ford v Ferrari in the “next up” with The Two Popes, Joker, and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

     

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    champion28
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    #1203183884

    My picks:

    The Irishman

    Marriage story

    parasite

    jojo rabbit

    once upon a time

    the farewell

    little women

    bombshell

    1917

    joker

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