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2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203268349

    Add Little Women to that. I think Ford v. Ferrari is your 9.

    Little Women feels like it could potentially be a late-breaker. It’s support until very recently was abysmal. but now it’s doing pretty well. I guess we’ll see.

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    Qoslca
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    Personally, I think we’ll be getting nine nominations this year:

    1917
    OUATIH
    Jojo Rabbit
    Parasite
    Marriage Story
    The Irishman
    Joker
    Little Women
    Ford v Ferrari

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

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    TVFan365
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    #1203268358

    I hope The Farewell pulls a Phantom Thread.

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    Nikhil
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    #1203268363

    I think Knives Out is stronger than Ford v Ferrari

    Ford v. Ferrari’s possible nomination ceiling is higher than Knives Out.

    Knives Out has outside shots at Editing and Screenplay and that’s really it. Ford v. Ferrari seems good for an editing nomination, sound mixing, sound editing, and shots at lead actor, cinematography, production design and probably a couple other long shots.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

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    cinetastic
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    Does anyone think Marriage Story could be snubbed?

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    AWDubay
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    Im going with

    Parasite
    OUATIH
    Irishman
    1917
    Marriage story
    Little Women
    Joker
    Jo Jo rabbit

    FOR SURE

    rounding out my top ten

    The Farewell
    Ford v Ferrari

    Andrewsart.etsy.com

    Check out my online store 🙂

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    TVFan365
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    #1203269240

    Something to think about for this Sunday when the Critics Choice Awards air.

    Every film that has won Best Picture at the ceremony in the past decade, except for The Social Network and Boyhood, has gone on to win Best Picture and/or Best Director at the Oscars.

    For the two years it didn’t happen, both The Social Network, and Boyhood, got swept by 1 film at the Big 4 guilds.

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    Seven
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    Does anyone think Marriage Story could be snubbed?

    Highly unlikely. But it wouldn’t get in if the lineup only had 5 movies

     

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    James Breheney
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    Here are my predictions for how the Best Picture and Best Director races will turn out. I’m putting them here now so I can come back and see if I was right after the big night.

    If The Irishman or 1917 wins Best Picture we will not see a split this year and they will also win Best Director but if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or Parasite wins Best Picture then we will see a split this year. My reasoning is that the former two films are seen as directorial/technical achievements whereas the latter two films are seen more as writing achievements.

    Possible scenarios:

    The Irishman – Picture, Director, Screenplay

    1917 – Picture, Director

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor + Director goes to Scorsese, Mendes or Bong Joon Ho

    Parasite – Picture, Screenplay + Director goes to Scorsese or Mendes

     

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    Nikhil
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    #1203271958

    Possible scenarios:

    The Irishman – Picture, Director, Screenplay

    1917 – Picture, Director

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor + Director goes to Scorsese, Mendes or Bong Joon Ho

    Parasite – Picture, Screenplay + Director goes to Scorsese or Mendes

    I largely agree with this. I do however think if the Irishman wins Scorsese doesn’t have to win Director. I think it could do Picture + Screenplay With Director going to any of the other three. I think 1917 is the only film that has to do Picture and Director to win, and I think Parasite may be able to do Picture + Director Or Picture + Screenplay. Irishman or OUATIH would split.

    My one question is, if Parasite were to lose Screenplay AND Director are its chances done? It certainly isn’t winning an acting Oscar so I wonder whether there is any precedent for a movie to win best picture without a director, screenplay, or acting win. Does anyone know?

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

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    Babygirl
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    I think this is Hollywood’s to lose because Screenplay + acting win + tech win (Production Design) is a pretty great combo for a BP win.

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    justonemorething
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    It’s all about SAG ensemble at this point in my opinion.

    If OUATIH wins then it’s sealed.

    If Parasite wins then it’ll take Picture and could take Director.

    If The Irishman wins then it’ll take either Picture or Director.

    If Jojo Rabbit wins then I have no idea what’s gonna happen, but would lean towards 1917 taking Picture and Director.

    Thinking it’s gonna be OUATIH.

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    Babygirl
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    PGA is the decider imo, SAG will just determine which of Hollywood or Parasite are stronger.

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    Foolio
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    #1203272008

    Frontrunners

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Parasite

    On the brink

    The Irishman
    1917

    Next in line

    Marriage Story
    Joker
    Jojo Rabbit
    Little Women

    Strong possibilities

    Knives Out
    Ford v. Ferrari
    The Farewell
    The Two Popes
    Bombshell

    Possibilities

    Dolemite Is My Name
    Uncut Gems
    Hustlers
    Dolor y gloria

    Longer shots

    Rocketman
    Booksmart
    Avengers: Endgame
    Just Mercy
    Us
    Waves
    The Lighthouse
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    Harriet

    Theoretical possibilities

    Honey Boy
    Motherless Brooklyn
    Clemency
    Dark Waters
    Judy
    Ad Astra
    Queen & Slim
    Richard Jewell
    The Last Black Man in San Francisco
    The Aeronauts
    Downton Abbey
    A Hidden Life
    The Report
    Toy Story 4
    The Peanut Butter Falcon

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    Nikhil
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    #1203272068

    PGA is the decider imo, SAG will just determine which of Hollywood or Parasite are stronger.

    In the 2010s
    PGA has been right 7 out of 9 times
    CC has been right 5 out of 9 times
    GG has been right 5 out of 9 times
    BAFTA has been right 4 out of 9 times
    SAG has been right 4 out of 9 times

    In the front half of the decade these bodies coincided a lot, but we’ve seen a noticeable shift in the back half as these groups go their own way.

    For example, in 2019 we got winners in Green Book, Roma, Black Panther, and Bohemian Rhapsody. To contrast, in 2011-2014 we saw the groups line up behind a consensus favorite more clearly. Kings Speech, The Artist, Argo, 12YAS all swept or almost swept.

    All this to say, I predict this trend will continue this year and these groups will be less useful in determining a winner but more useful in seeing who the contenders are.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

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