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2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor (Part 2)

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  • JackO
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    #1203165677

    So I have Sterling K. Brown winning. The reviews for Waves are solid enough and I get Barry Jenkins vibes from the posters and their pull quotes that make the film seem accessible. Brown still feels fresh and capable of inspiring passion, which is sorely lacking with the frontrunners. He suddenly won back-to-back Emmys for different roles and is now getting these film roles. That actually more or less describes the career trajectories of all of last year’s acting winners.

    Thats really random. I think if anyone is able to get in without BP, that’ll be Dafoe, just like he did last year. If I could predict it, I really think Kang-ho Song may surprise here a la Marina de Tavira. Otherwise, it will be filled with BP nominees. Predicting Alda for now in the 5th spot as it seems like prototypical coattail nom for a film with strong acting.

    Also really sleeping on Waititi and the upcoming love for Jojo Rabbit. I think he will be stand-in for entire cast kinda like Arkin was for Argo.

    And Pitt is winning easily despite what the posters look like lol

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203166085

    Willem Dafoe strikes me as our annual Hong Chau or Jake Gyllenhaal and whatnot. I am sure that he gives a great performance and he will show up at the precursors as such, but I predict that he falls out at the last minute for a slight performance in a Best Picture contender that the precursors rightly ignored, namely Alan Alda in this case. He has been around a lot longer, but Dafoe is kind of like Michael Shannon (the other way around really). He drifts around, giving great performances and getting the nomination only sometimes and not even necessarily at the most obvious times. The Lighthouse is not an easy sell—outside of the cinematographers’ branch of course because they are shameless about nominating anything black-and-white. Even if Dafoe gets in, his film is going to be too much of a non-factor for him to win the big awards, like The Florida Project.

    Dafoe getting in at major precursors but being snubbed at the Oscars doesn’t make much sense. The Lighthouse is a ‘weird’ movie so Dafoe is most vulnerable at SAG because they’re largely populist and kinda basic. To me he seems more of an Emily Watson in Breaking the Waves or Joaquin Phoenix in The Master type of nominee; unfairly snubbed at SAG, but other precursors and critical acclaim carry them through (though I’m not ruling out Dafoe at SAG). I would say Dafoe’s nominations were, in contrast to Shannon’s, very much at the most expected times. He was in the Best Picture winner with Platoon, had a showy role based on a past iconic performance in Shadow of the Vampire, The Florida Project was his most acclaimed performance in over a decade and he played Van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  Eddy Q.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  Eddy Q.
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    EsOS
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    #1203166128

    I think Hanks is getting snubbed.

    Pitt, Pacino, Dafoe, Brown, Hopkins.

    Banned for making a fake movie poster

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    Salsa Club
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    #1203166151

    The only person I’ll accept beating Dafoe is Brown 

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    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203166198

    Actually, I think Dafoe’s major battle will be with the more basic precursors. If more partisan awards bodies like Globes and SAG go for him, there would be no reason why the Oscars wouldn’t do the same. The only reason I’m unsure of a win is because the HFPA would have to start his sweep, and I can’t rely on them to make such a non-basic decision like some were expecting with Dafoe v Rockwell 2018.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

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    JackO
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    #1203166228

    Also still no Asier Etxeandia in the predictions centre? Really? Yet some unreleased performances are? I think I first enquired about this at the beginning of October…yet no feedback at all…what are you waiting for, Gold Derby? How many times do I have to campaign? (I swear I don’t know him lol, just completely surprised and impressed by the performance)

    It doesnt look like they are campaigning him, unfortunately. Got screener and it only says Banderas and Cruz. No one else. Ensemble Cast FYC of course there but no one listed on it. I agree he was awesome as well.

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    Owl-Always-watching
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    #1203166425

    It doesnt look like they are campaigning him, unfortunately. Got screener and it only says Banderas and Cruz. No one else. Ensemble Cast FYC of course there but no one listed on it. I agree he was awesome as well.

    I was wondering about Cruz. So they are pushing for her.. interesting

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    babypook
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    #1203166615

    I have Cruz as my #4 pick atm and I may move her up.

    Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
    Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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    Vicki Leekx
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    #1203166674

    It doesnt look like they are campaigning him, unfortunately. Got screener and it only says Banderas and Cruz. No one else. Ensemble Cast FYC of course there but no one listed on it. I agree he was awesome as well.

    This is…disturbing. He literally supports Banderas for most of the film, has more screen time than Cruz, and how can anyone deny that soliloquy? I’m heartbroken. Who is handling the distribution? I’m of a mind to complain to them.

    Not that it should matter (but let’s not deny politics play a part) he could also have been a refreshing candidate for their “diversity” pick; being Spanish and a member of LGBT community. Rant over.

    FYC:

    Antonio Banderas and Asier Etxeandia, Dolor y Gloria (Best Actor/Supporting Actor)
    Emily Beecham, Little Joe (Best Actress)
    Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (Best Actor/Actress)

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    estrelasdealgeruz
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    #1203166711

    This is…disturbing. He literally supports Banderas for most of the film, has more screen time than Cruz, and how can anyone deny that soliloquy? I’m heartbroken. Who is handling the distribution? I’m of a mind to complain to them.

    Not that it should matter (but let’s not deny politics play a part) he could also have been a refreshing candidate for their “diversity” pick; being Spanish and a member of LGBT community. Rant over.

    I agree. He literally gave an Oscar worthy performance. His monologue was pure perfection. I know Cruz has a far bigger name but it’s still very disturbing how they campaign for her but not him. I Mean… Have they even watched the movie?! Obviously they did but c’mon. I loved Cruz in the movie and I would be thrilled if she pulled a Maggie Gyllenhaal/Marina de Tavira but leaving Asier in the dust when he deserves equal recognition, if not more, would be devastating. But since we are talking about Sony Pictures Classics… Nothing surprises me.

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    Vicki Leekx
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    #1203166732

    I agree. He literally gave an Oscar worthy performance. His monologue was pure perfection. I know Cruz has a far bigger name but it’s still very disturbing how they campaign for her but not him. I Mean… Have they even watched the movie?! Obviously they did but c’mon. I loved Cruz in the movie and I would be thrilled if she pulled a Maggie Gyllenhaal/Marina de Tavira but leaving Asier in the dust when he deserves equal recognition, if not more, would be devastating. But since we are talking about Sony Pictures Classics… Nothing surprises me.

    Would you like to join my campaign? Haha. Let’s clear something up, I meant no disrespect to Cruz, I agree, she was great in her limited screen time, and I’d be fine with her being nominated, but at the expense of a more significant supporting role? I’d have to choose Asier hands down. Do you think there’s any chance he could “De Tavira” his way in? As far as I know she received literally no precursor nominations whatsoever…

    This pairing actually reminds me of Blue Jasmine. Without the chemistry with Sally Hawkins, Cate Blanchett’s performance wouldn’t have worked as well. Both were rightfully nominated, and the same should happen with Banderas and Etxeandia…

    Sony Pictures! How could you do this??! I despair.

    FYC:

    Antonio Banderas and Asier Etxeandia, Dolor y Gloria (Best Actor/Supporting Actor)
    Emily Beecham, Little Joe (Best Actress)
    Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (Best Actor/Actress)

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    estrelasdealgeruz
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    #1203166742

    Would you like to join my campaign? Haha. Let’s clear something up, I meant no disrespect to Cruz, I agree, she was great in her limited screen time, and I’d be fine with her being nominated, but at the expense of a more significant supporting role? I’d have to chose Asier hands down. Do you think there’s any chance he could “De Tavira” his way in? As far as I know she received literally no precursor nominations whatsoever…

    This pairing actually reminds me of Blue Jasmine. Without the chemistry with Sally Hawkins, Cate Blanchett’s performance wouldn’t have worked as well. Both were rightfully nominated, and the same should happen with Banderas and Etxeandia…

    Sony Pictures! How could you do this??! I despair.

    I would love to join your campaign but unfortunately I think we are alone…
    It’s funny you mentioned Blue Jasmine , because both Pain & Glory and Blue Jasmine are from Sony Pictures Classics.
    I agree, their chemistry was pretty amazing and one of the best I’ve seen in a long time. Unfortunately I don’t think he will get in. Parasite will be loved by the Academy way more. It’s hot, new and hugely exciting. Not to mention that it subject is very current. Outside of Banderas and International movie I don’t see the movie doing that well. Screenplay could have a shot but even that I can’t see happening. Asier could still win some regional critics like LAFCA and NSFC. They usually like to award foreign performances.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203166789

    Just here to remind you guys that Jamie Foxx is a massive threat for a nomination in this category right now. Just Mercy is getting a ton if buzz at smaller film festivals and kicking up audience awards left and right. I still don’t think it’s a major contender yet, especially since Warner Bros has bigger pushes like Joker and Tochard Jewell, but they’ll absolutely campaign hard for Foxx. Plus, this category needs a diversity nom, and both Brown and Waititi don’t seem to be getting enough buzz.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Adam Driver, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
    Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, Scarlett Johansson
    S. Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell, Al Pacino, Alan Alda
    S. Actress: Laura Dern, Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari

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    babypook
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    #1203166842

    This is…disturbing. He literally supports Banderas for most of the film, has more screen time than Cruz, and how can anyone deny that soliloquy? I’m heartbroken. Who is handling the distribution? I’m of a mind to complain to them.

    Not that it should matter (but let’s not deny politics play a part) he could also have been a refreshing candidate for their “diversity” pick; being Spanish and a member of LGBT community. Rant over.

    I understand your reasoning but I have had Cruz in the mix for a while. I think from the cast she has the best chance for a nomination. But it wouldnt surprise if it misses entirely.

    Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
    Philip K Dick Blade Runner

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203166862

    It doesnt look like they are campaigning him, unfortunately. Got screener and it only says Banderas and Cruz. No one else. Ensemble Cast FYC of course there but no one listed on it. I agree he was awesome as well.

    This is so lazy of them.

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