Home Forums Movies 2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 151 through 165 (of 495 total)
Created
1 month ago
Last Reply
3 weeks ago
499
( +5 hidden )
replies
30327
views
95
users
Gabe Guarin
77
John Berchmans
48
thatnerdgreg
32
  • Marcus.H
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 21st, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294191

    1917 is winning that Oscars best picture now and I’m here for it:)

    Kubrick-Coen-Tarantino-Hitchcock-Lynch-Fellini-BillyWilde-WesAnderson
    "One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest(1975)"[All Time Fav]

    ARegularGuy
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jun 25th, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294193

    I just can’t get over the statistical disadvantage and the fact that the Oscars always seem to snub the frontrunner.

    For this reason Parasite is walking a very fine line. If it wins DGA, WGA and BAFTA for Screenplay it might turn the tides towards 1917 come Oscar night. This is all speculation though, let’s see what happens in the coming weeks. Regardless, an exciting race between worthy (in my opinion) films!

    John Berchmans
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294198

    For this reason Parasite is walking a very fine line. If it wins DGA, WGA and BAFTA for Screenplay it might turn the tides towards 1917 come Oscar night. This is all speculation though, let’s see what happens in the coming weeks. Regardless, an exciting race between worthy (in my opinion) films!

    That’s why I hope 1917 wins BAFTA, which seems likely. They’ve been wrong every year since 2013.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

    Golden Girl
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 15th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294201

    I’ll wait until BAFTA’s are over to make my final prediction. Everything seems to be pointing to 1917, but I just can’t get over the statistical disadvantage and the fact that the Oscars always seem to snub the frontrunner. Parasite needs Screenplay, but if it can win that I think it wins Picture too.

    My question is, have the Oscars always snubbed the frontrunner in the era of the preferential ballot, or have we as predictors misjudged the frontrunners? Last year for example, I predicted Roma. In hindsight, I think there was more pointing to Green Book than we recognized.

    Gabriel Guarin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294203

    I don’t think he is suggesting that the actors don’t matter, but rather suggesting that they don’t necessarily dislike 1917 just because the acting didn’t translate to nominations.

    I’m not suggesting they outright dislike it. But rather there’s none of the enthusiasm it would need.

    Gabriel Guarin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294211

    My question is, have the Oscars always snubbed the frontrunner in the era of the preferential ballot, or have we as predictors misjudged the frontrunners? Last year for example, I predicted Roma. In hindsight, I think there was more pointing to Green Book than we recognized.

    It’s really subjective no matter how we look at it.

    John Berchmans
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294215

    My question is, have the Oscars always snubbed the frontrunner in the era of the preferential ballot, or have we as predictors misjudged the frontrunners? Last year for example, I predicted Roma. In hindsight, I think there was more pointing to Green Book than we recognized.

    My definition of the frontrunner is the film most people think will win, so by that definition they have. Gravity, Boyhood, The Revenant, La La Land, Three Billboards, and Roma were the frontrunners going into the Oscars in their respective years, and all lost. The reason why there’s always an “upset” (that’s usually pretty easy to predict) is that people vote mostly based on precursor wins (all of those films I listed above had the most or tied for the most precursor wins) rather than other factors like a Screenplay win (every winner except for The Shape of Water since 2013 had this) or key nominations (Revenant missed Screenplay, Three Billboards missed Director, Roma missed editing, etc). Green Book actually did have way more going for it last year (tied for precursors, made editing, and not a foreign/Netflix film) but people were clouded by the controversy and voted for Roma.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

    Golden Girl
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 15th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294218

    It’s really subjective no matter how we look at it.

    Agreed on that. It seems most years lately it narrows to two and ultimately becomes a toss up of which one will take it.

    Golden Girl
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 15th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294227

    My definition of the frontrunner is the film most people think will win, so by that definition they have. Gravity, Boyhood, The Revenant, La La Land, Three Billboards, and Roma were the frontrunners going into the Oscars in their respective years, and all lost. The reason why there’s always an “upset” (that’s usually pretty easy to predict) is that people vote mostly based on precursor wins (all of those films I listed above had the most or tied for the most precursor wins) rather than other factors like a Screenplay win (every winner except for The Shape of Water since 2013 had this) or key nominations (Revenant missed Screenplay, Three Billboards missed Director, Roma missed editing, etc). Green Book actually did have way more going for it last year (tied for precursors, made editing, and not a foreign/Netflix film) but people were clouded by the controversy and voted for Roma.

    Thanks – great analysis! For me, I know I haven’t always weighted PGA as heavy as perhaps I should have and missed things like Green Book, The Shape of Water & Birdman that I wonder if I should’ve seen coming. I was going to test that theory and pay a little more heed to PGA this year.

    John Berchmans
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294234

    Thanks – great analysis! For me, I know I haven’t always weighted PGA as heavy as perhaps I should have and missed things like Green Book, The Shape of Water & Birdman that I wonder if I should’ve seen coming. I was going to test that theory and pay a little more heed to PGA this year.

    I would worry about PGA this year just because 1917 was always bound to do better on Producer ballots. I have a feeling it won’t do very well on ballots like Acting or Screenplay at the Oscars, but then again Once might not do as well as I thought on those ballots either. I do think 1917 has a strong chance: it just needs to overcome the statistical disadvantage and potential frontrunner status. But JackO is right if it really is 1917 vs Parasite: stats will be broken one way or another.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

    Gabriel Guarin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294242

    I would worry about PGA this year just because 1917 was always bound to do better on Producer ballots. I have a feeling it won’t do very well on ballots like Acting or Screenplay at the Oscars, but then again Once might not do as well as I thought on those ballots either. I do think 1917 has a strong chance: it just needs to overcome the statistical disadvantage and potential frontrunner status. But JackO is right if it really is 1917 vs Parasite: stats will be broken one way or another.

    I think Once Upon a Time is unquestionably a lock for Brad Pitt. We just have to see what else it can win. Same for the two leaders. What can they win?

    Golden Girl
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 15th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294250

    I think Once Upon a Time is unquestionably a lock for Brad Pitt. We just have to see what else it can win. Same for the two leaders. What can they win?

    Agreed. If Parasite can take original screenplay, it stands a strong chance. Although, I’m not ready to move away from Tarantino. 1917 has cinematography for sure, but I think it needs director to go along with it as well. If Bong wins DGA, I’ll probably switch.

    John Berchmans
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294253

    I think Once Upon a Time is unquestionably a lock for Brad Pitt. We just have to see what else it can win. Same for the two leaders. What can they win?

    I’d say Once is a lock for Production Design as well.

    Parasite is a lock for Foreign Film, and may win Best Editing at the Oscars thanks to it’s ACE Eddie win and FvF’s stunt ensemble loss at SAG (to Endgame of all films: which was mostly CGI). Of course it can win Screenplay too, but Once is still the frontrunner there for now.

    1917 is a lock to win Director (unless DGA for some reason votes for Joon-Ho), Cinematography, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing, and I think it could win Visual Effects as well (though that seems unlikely).

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

    RealLyre852
    Participant
    Joined:
    Aug 31st, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294260

    https://twitter.com/mavericksmovies/status/1219135168465620995?s=20

     

    Ford v Ferrari beats 1917 for the main MPSE prize (Sound editing guild)

     

    could it it upset at the Oscar? or will 1917 pull a dunkirk and win both?

    JackO
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203294270

    I doubt it. The every year the basics in the academy complain on anonymous ballots that they dont understand the difference between the two sound categories.

Viewing 15 posts - 151 through 165 (of 495 total)

The topic ‘2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
RobertPius - Feb 22, 2020
Movies
Blanche - Feb 22, 2020
Movies