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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

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  • Zooey the Dreamer
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    Jojo Rabbit isn’t a typical comedy. Since it’s a political satire, it’s a dark comedy. So, it doesn’t intend to be funny.

    Dark comedies have to be funny as well. I had a different issue with it though – it was way too hollow, nothing there. Dark comedies have something to stay. This one does not. The thing is it promises to be much edgier than it is. At its core, it’s a sentimental coming of age story.

    Joyce Byers
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    Oh my god! This year is really amazing! I can’t believe how spectacular the nominees are. It seems it’s between 1917, Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. They all deserve to win. They are masterpieces. Don’t count out The Irishman yet, it could surprise! I’m very grateful for this year of cinema.

    Nikhil
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    I’m predicting Jojo Rabbit for Adapted Screenplay. The movie overperformed with nominations, feels in line with previous Screenplay winners, and the Irishman is probably going 0/10.

    As for Little Women, A Gerwig consolation prize assumes the Acacemy feels bad about the snub and cares about the issue (they don’t). It’s worth noting for all those who buy in to the guilt, there’s an equal contingent of irritated Academy members that clearly don’t like to be told what to do.

    If BAFTA repeats CC then I’ll switch to LW because it means this consolation/justice narrative works with actual voters, but until then I’m sticking with Jojo.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

    skhutch360
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    By matter I mean to people outside this board. I forgot who won last year tbh. It’s only when a deserving or truly groundbreaking film wins that it sticks.

    Isn’t “deserving” subjective, though? I liked Parasite and thought it was well-made, but the characters and storyline were borderline-cartoonish, IMO. It didn’t move me the way OUATIH did, or Spotlight, for that matter.

     

    smindymix
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    I laughed out loud many times during Jojo Rabbit. It’s a comedy both in screenplay and performance.

    Yeah, the opening scene alone had me laughing out loud.

    TheBowie
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    HAHAHAHA do you really think Jojo Rabbit has a chance to win? I haven’t seen the movie, but I think it’s not going to be better than Joker, Once Upon a Time or The Irishman. I know it.

    I love being a literate person.

    John Berchmans
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    I know statistics may be meaningless by this point, but I’ve found several that strongly favor Parasite over 1917 in the Best Picture race.

    1: Every Best Picture winner since 2010 has been released in the US in October or November. Parasite had it’s limited release here on October 12th. The last December release (which was when 1917 came out) to win Best Picture was Million Dollar Baby in 2004.

    2: Only 2 Best Picture winners this decade earned 10 or more nominations, and 5 of the 10 earned between 6 and 8 nominations.

    3: All of the recent Best Picture winners have been films with important messages and social commentary (12 Years, Spotlight, Moonlight, The Shape of Water, Green Book). 1917 doesn’t have much of a message (outside of “War is Bad”), but Parasite does.

    4: 8 of the 10 Best Picture winners this decade won Screenplay and 5 of those didn’t win Director. Conversely only 5 out of the 10 winners won Director and only 2 of those 10 won without Screenplay. Parasite can still win Screenplay but 1917 won’t, even though it will win Director.

    5: As I mentioned before, the Academy has snubbed the film with the most precursor wins (aka the frontrunner) every year since 2013, and every BAFTA winner has lost since then as well. If 1917 wins BAFTA and ends up with the most precursor wins it will have a pretty big target on its back.

    6: Lastly, Parasite technically isn’t the first foreign film to win Picture, since The Artist won in 2011. However, it would be the first to win Picture and Foreign Film.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Florence Pugh
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    JackO
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    >6: Lastly, Parasite technically isn’t the first foreign film to win Picture, since The Artist won in 2011. However, it would be the first to win Picture and Foreign Film.

    It’s not “foreign film”. It’s foreign language film aka not in English. You confused the production with the language spoken. No foreign language film has ever won. Just like no foreign language film ever won ACE or SAG.

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 6 days ago by  PJ Edwards.
    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 6 days ago by  PJ Edwards.
    Federico Rubachin
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    HAHAHAHA do you really think Jojo Rabbit has a chance to win? I haven’t seen the movie, but I think it’s not going to be better than Joker, Once Upon a Time or The Irishman. I know it.

    joker has no DGA nomination…

    thatnerdgreg
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    joker has no DGA nomination…

    Just try to ignore him. I know it’s tempting to correct him, but such a blatant troll shouldn’t be fed.

    John Berchmans
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    Yeah what a dumb and irrelevant message yawn. I can’t even.

    Never said it was dumb or irrelevant. But the Academy prefers something like “Class Discrimination is bad” or “Discrimination against Gay people and minorities is bad” or “Sexual abuse is bad” even “Racism is bad”.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Florence Pugh
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    Nicco
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    I now believe that in this year full of such good movies the Academy will make a really big split in order to make everyone happy. So Tarantino winning picture as producer,  Mendes winning director and Baumbach and Gerwig winning screeplay is a possible scenario. It feels so real to me. In My opinion it will go this way :

    -Hollywood : picture, supp. actor, production design

    -1917 : director, cinematography, sound effect, sound mix

    -Parasite : foreign film, editing

    -Joker : actor, score

    -Little Women : adapted screenplay, costume design

    -Marriage Story : original screenplay, supp.actress

     

    Michael Windfeldt
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    I have been thinking a lot about the best picture race. If we look at the past winners in both picture and director. The director award has been given to Technical films like Gravity, the revenant, Roma, Even La la land, life of pi etc. And the best picture has been given to the films with the most heart and they were character driven films; Green book, moonlight, shape of water, spotlight, 12 years a slave, argo and Even Birdman. Which of the frontrunners do you think fits those bills the best? Imo it is Mendes for director and parasite for picture! But what do you think?

    Teresa Chavez
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    I have been thinking a lot about the best picture race. If we look at the past winners in both picture and director. The director award has been given to Technical films like Gravity, the revenant, Roma, Even La la land, life of pi etc. And the best picture has been given to the films with the most heart and they were character driven films; Green book, moonlight, shape of water, spotlight, 12 years a slave, argo and Even Birdman. Which of the frontrunners do you think fits those bills the best? Imo it is Mendes for director and parasite for picture! But what do you think?

    There will be no split, 1917 is sadly taking both BP and BD.

    Hammad Asif
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    I hope Parasite wins BP with Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

    I love 1917 and it is indeed my #3 of the year but I never felt emotionally consumed in this film as I did with Thin Red Line and Saving Private Ryan.

    It is a cinematic marvel and achievement but the emotional grasp that Parasite,Jojo Rabbit,Irishman,Farewell have in them isn’t there to be seen in 1917.

    Though I still believe,It will win and will be a deserving BP winner but I would like Parasite winning it the most this year.

    Kubrick-Scorsese-Nolan-Coens-PTA-Fincher-Hitchock-Spike-Tarantino-Wes Anderson-Bong Joon-Ho

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