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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

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  • Federico Rubachin
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    Don’t put black panther and hidden figures as examples. These were SAG winners who did not have a DGA nomination.

    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    Don’t put black panther and hidden figures as examples. These were SAG winners who did not have a DGA nomination.

    Darling, you better shut up. Black Panther’s win is atrocious.

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

    JackO
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    Parasite for screenplay is not only not locked but it’s not even the frontrunner. Tarantino won CC and Globes. And I think Parasite would have won CC if anywhere.

    CC are sheep. They copy and pasted the globe wins. Has no bearing on future races. If WGA feels same way as SAG, Parasite could easily climb over Marriage Story and win.

    Eddy Q
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    Parasite also has a strong chance at an editing win thanks to the ACE’s and the fact that FvF has not had much support this awards season (4 noms, no major categories outside of Picture and didn’t even win stunt Ensemble at SAG’s). If Parasite can win just Original Screenplay (but probably needs Editing as well), then it can win Best Picture.

    I don’t think Parasite necessarily needs to win for editing to win Best Picture. It can still lose to the flashier Ford v Ferrari without affecting its chances in other races. Conversely, if Parasite does win editing we shouldn’t automatically assume that’ll be indicative of anything later in the ceremony. Interestingly there is precedent for a foreign-language film winner also prevailing in editing but not for anything above-the-line, albeit from 50 years ago exactly: Costa-Gavras’s Z.

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by  Eddy Q.
    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by  Eddy Q.
    Gabriel Guarin
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    I’m predicting Parasite for Editing because it just doesn’t seem like there’s that much overwhelming passion for Ford v. Ferrari.

    Federico Rubachin
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    Today feinberg of THR said  Jojo Rabbit has a better chance of winning  best picture than the Irishman. And that the frontrunners for best script are  Jojo Rabbit and Parasite.

    Gabriel Guarin
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    Today feinberg of THR said Jojo Rabbit has a better chance of winning best picture than the Irishman. And that the frontrunners for best script are Jojo Rabbit and Parasite.

    I’m beginning to worry about potentially being wrong but I’m sticking with my predictions.

    TheCineMike
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    Today feinberg of THR said Jojo Rabbit has a better chance of winning best picture than the Irishman.

    I agree with this. I can see Jojo Rabbit winning BP. It went well with the guilds so there is clearly a love for this film. Plus, I can see it being the 2nd or 3rd place vote.

    Nicco
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    I agree. I think everything is so Clear now and there won’t be surprises :

    Hollywood : picture, original screenplay, supp. actor, production design

    -1917 : director, cinematography, sound effect, sound mix

    -Parasite : foreign film, editing

    -Joker : actor, score

    -Little Women : adapted screenplay, costume design

    -Marriage Story : supp.actress

    The2ndAvenger
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    Aha. Controversy.

    If only for fun, I will defend my argument.

    First, in response to @phenix714: Nominations alone aren’t the only factor, you are correct, but they certainly help. And I’d say that Roma had more acting support, seeing as it actually got acting nominations. With the SAG logic, you could say Black Panther or Hidden Figures had more acting support.

    To @Nikhil: 1917 was never going to get an Actor nom for MacKay. He entered too late in the game as a dark horse and isn’t very well known. What 1917 needed was an Original Screenplay nomination – if the Academy can give it that without a ton of dialogue, that’s a good sign. Parasite, on the other hand, was kind of a given for Original Screenplay (like 1917 was for cinematography), so it needed an acting nomination, preferably for Song.

    (Trust me, I read a New York Times article about this 🙂

    To Frederico: American Hustle and Three Billboards had both an SAG win and a DGA nom.

    Singsongoflove01
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    I don’t really see the logic in that. A very high number of nominations has never been a requisite to win Best Picture. Joker and The Irishman got a ton of nominations too, this doesn’t mean the movies themselves are all that popular. And Parasite has actually gotten more support than Roma for its acting, since it won the SAG ensemble. It also has more support for its writing and editing, and is a much less divisive movie.

    It’s also a much better film than Roma. And it’s not a Netflix picture which might help it along. 1917 could end up like Black Panther with tech awards and Parasite could walk away with the big prize (deservedly so). The film with the most nominations doesn’t always win best picture.

    DvirBA
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    Wow if Tarantino also loses Best Screenplay to anything i’m DONE

    FreemanGriffin
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    I believe there are close contests in quite a number of categories: BP (1917 v Parasite), Original Screenplay (Hollywood v Parasite), Adapted Screenplay (Irishman v Little Women), Film Editing (Ford v Ferrari v Irishman v Parasite), Visual Effects (Irishman v 1917), Sound Mixing and Sound Editing (Ford v Ferrari v 1917)…

    Nikhil
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    It’s also a much better film than Roma. And it’s not a Netflix picture which might help it along.

    So, personally, I don’t think Netflix bias really exists as much as we think it does. I mean they’re willing to give The Irishman and Marriage Story like 16 total nominations. Why would the bias only kick in after nominations?

    In my opinion, Netflix’ film choice is the only thing preventing them from winning BP. They obviously have the resources. If they just made a serious contender that wasn’t paced like a snail, I think they could win like any other studio.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

    Deranged Cinephilia
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    I bet Parasite wins BP. 1917’s going to get bumped by frontrunner syndrome. (see also: Grand Hotel rule). Original’s got Tarantino’s name on it. Parasite’s way in is through Director. Jojo has better odds than Irishman at adapted, but Gerwig’s still winning. There’s more passion for LW than people seem to be giving it credit for. Editing’s interesting. I would like Irishman to take something, but it seems it’s either F. v. F. or Parasite.

    Pity the acting races are dull, so so dull…

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