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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203305220

    Little Women just won the USC Scripter Award.

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    Hinrich689
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    #1203305252

    Gerwig will definitely get the Oscar and deservedly so. Sad to see The Irishman crash and burn but at least Jojo Rabbit did not win.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203305315

    Little Women just won the USC Scripter Award.

    Welp, guess we know who’s winning the Oscar then. RIP Jojo Rabbit.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    JackO
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    #1203305325

    Little Women just won the USC Scripter Award.

    This thing is like AACTA. Too many people take it too seriously for how little impact it has. I mean they snubbed Spike Lee lol

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203305333

    On the topic of the Annie Awards, Klaus just pulled a huge upset and won 7 awards, including Best Animated Feature. This has been such a weird, split season for the Animated Feature film category: it feels like no one wants to award Disney this year and would rather give their animated film awards to anyone else. I’m starting to wonder if Toy Story 4’s as secure in this category as I once though. The upset feels more and more likely now.

    A Disney shutout may be on its way. I guess that’s payback for monopolizing the industry.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203305363

    On the topic of the Annie Awards, Klaus just pulled a huge upset and won 7 awards, including Best Animated Feature. This has been such a weird, split season for the Animated Feature film category: it feels like no one wants to award Disney this year and would rather give their animated film awards to anyone else. I’m starting to wonder if Toy Story 4’s as secure in this category as I once though. The upset feels more and more likely now. A Disney shutout may be on its way. I guess that’s payback for monopolizing the industry.

    I still think Toy Story 4 will win Animated Feature. It got that Original Song nomination we weren’t expecting. But I agree that it’s not impossible for it to lose, especially if the Disney backlash is strong enough.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203305375

    This thing is like AACTA. Too many people take it too seriously for how little impact it has. I mean they snubbed Spike Lee lol

    It’s correctly predicted the Adapted Screenplay Oscar 9 of the 11 past years. The Spike Lee snub was an odd anomaly and in the case of Up in the Air, there was a palpable Jason Reitman backlash.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203305384

    I still think Toy Story 4 will win Animated Feature. It got that Original Song nomination we weren’t expecting. But I agree that it’s not impossible for it to lose, especially if the Disney backlash is strong enough.

    That’s what’s tripping me. It really feels like there’s a concentrated push by all of the precursor awards voters to completely shutout Disney. So far they’ve won Visual Effects for Endgame at CC, Stunt Ensemble for Endgame at SAG, Animated Feature for Toy Story 4 at CC, ACE for Jojo, and that’s it. Compare that to their previous results, especially last year with Black Panther. They’re not dominating in Song or Animated like they usually do, and Frozen 2, Endgame, Jojo Rabbit and Toy Story 4 are all staring down the barrel of a complete shutout. Even FvF can get shutout if it loses Editing at BAFTA (then Parasite wins editing and 1917 takes both sound awards)

    I think, just like Netflix, the industry is scared of Disney and what they have the power to do. Especially since Dinsey is concentrating most of their resources into Disney Plus now, another streaming service that’s keeping people away from other studio’s theatrical releases, while encouraging them to watch Disney films. If the shutout does happens this year, with so many strong contenders, we may not see Disney win any awards for a long time.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203305440

    That’s what’s tripping me. It really feels like there’s a concentrated push by all of the precursor awards voters to completely shutout Disney. So far they’ve won Visual Effects for Endgame at CC, Stunt Ensemble for Endgame at SAG, Animated Feature for Toy Story 4 at CC, ACE for Jojo, and that’s it. Compare that to their previous results, especially last year with Black Panther. They’re not dominating in Song or Animated like they usually do, and Frozen 2, Endgame, Jojo Rabbit and Toy Story 4 are all staring down the barrel of a complete shutout. Even FvF can get shutout if it loses Editing at BAFTA (then Parasite wins editing and 1917 takes both sound awards) I think, just like Netflix, the industry is scared of Disney and what they have the power to do. Especially since Dinsey is concentrating most of their resources into Disney Plus now, another streaming service that’s keeping people away from other studio’s theatrical releases, while encouraging them to watch Disney films. If the shutout does happens this year, with so many strong contenders, we may not see Disney win any awards for a long time.

    Totally on the money there. Question is, what upsets Toy Story 4 if that happens?

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203305490

    Going all in on Netflix is new for the Annies, but pay no mind to their old-hat disregard for Pixar. Remember when Dreamworks bought all of their employees memberships, resulting in Kung Fu Panda winning ten Annies over WALL·E and Best Picture nominee Toy Story 3 being shut out? The Oscars are the opposite, most notably defaulting to Disney with Big Hero 6 the year of How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The Lego Movie.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203305524

    Going all in on Netflix is new for the Annies, but pay no mind to their old-hat disregard for Pixar. Remember when Dreamworks bought all of their employees memberships, resulting in Kung Fu Panda winning ten Annies over WALL·E and Best Picture nominee Toy Story 3 being shut out? The Oscars are the opposite, most notably defaulting to Disney with Big Hero 6 the year of How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The Lego Movie.

    True, and I do think Toy Story 4 is still safe for Animated Feature. Just be wary of a possible backlash against Disney, that’s all.

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    Aaron Kalloo
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    #1203305595

    SAM MENDES WON THE DGA AWARD. Not surprising in my opinion but I think it pretty much settles it to win. Not a complete lock but basically I guess….

     

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203305608

    Totally on the money there. Question is, what upsets Toy Story 4 if that happens?

    Before seeing Klaus I was wondering if it could pull an upset, but now that I have I just don’t see it. The story just isn’t strong enough to really emotionally land, and I suspect Oscar voters may feel similarly. Its sweep at the Annies doesn’t persuade me otherwise. I doubt box-office flop Missing Link repeats its Globe win which was most likely a fluke, and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World seems less buzzed than the previous installments. If they really want to avoid rewarding another Toy Story film they could dare to vote for I Lost My Body, which unlike previous indie animated nominees is easily available to all on Netflix. It even has some heart to it amidst the surrealism and ickiness, but it would also be unprecedented for the Academy to go for a kid-unfriendly film in this category as too many members do not take animation seriously enough. Any other year I would say Toy Story 4 is vulnerable as a sequel to a franchise they’ve already awarded, but with this competition it most likely wins by default.

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    Hammad Asif
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    #1203305761

    Carey Mulligan Suggests Oscar Voters Need to Prove They’ve Seen the Movies

    I absolutely agree to this.

    Kubrick-Tarkovsky-Scorsese-Bergman-Bresson-Kurosawa

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    DaKardii
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    #1203305766

    Post-DGA winners predictions (Major Categories)

    Best Picture: 1917

    Best Director: Sam Mendes (1917)

    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

    Best Actress: Renee Zellweger (Judy)

    Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

    Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

    Best Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman

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