Home Forums Movies 2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 346 through 360 (of 495 total)
Created
9 months ago
Last Reply
9 months ago
499
( +5 hidden )
replies
33722
views
95
users
Gabriel Guarin
77
John Berchmans
48
Human Bartender
32
  • Profile picture
    Gabriel Guarin
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203306829

    The reason I have decided to predict Parasite in Original Screenplay is that I think voters will want to reward it in more than just International Film and Sam Mendes is to me a lock for Best Director so they can go with Parasite and honor Joon-ho outside of just International Film at the same time. This may be wishful thinking on my part since I don’t care for the Hollywood script but it’s my rationale for predicting Parasite for Original Screenplay! It could go either way though.

    Parasite certainly has a chance to win Original Screenplay but the money’s on Hollywood at the moment given the precursors. Plus, just because you’re a talk-of-the-year critics’ favorite filmmaker who seems to have everything going for them at the moment doesn’t automatically mean the Oscars are going to instantly reward you, especially if this is your first time up for major categories like Picture and Director. Just ask Richard Linklater and Wes Anderson in 2014.

    Profile picture
    jsn
    Joined:
    Nov 24th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203306837

    That is not entirely true. All those films also won the Critics Choice, Golden Globe and BAFTA screenplay combo. All 3, or two of the 3. Tarantino has won Critics Choice and Golden Globe. And if you think he’s not easily winning BAFTA Original Screenplay next week, I don’t know what to tell you. Parasite would be close to an unprecedented Original Screenplay winner. Green Book won PGA. And PGA winners win Directing and or Screenplay before Best Picture. For it to pull a Spotlight in Best Picture, it would’ve had to win Critics Choice Best Picture and Screenplay, WGA and BAFTA Screenplay. Moonlight won the Golden Globe for Best Picture Drama and WGA.

    Spotlight: Completely shut out at the Globes, won WGA and BAFTA screenplay.

    Crash: Completely shut out at the Globes (didn’t even get a Drama Film nom), won WGA and BAFTA screenplay.

    Gosford Park: Lost screenplay Globe, lost BAFTA screenplay, won WGA.

     

    So no, a movie doesn’t have to win both the Globes and BAFTA to win WGA and the Oscar for screenplay. And If you think Critics’Choice is a legit precursor then I don’t know what to tell you.

    Profile picture
    Gabriel Guarin
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203306845

    Yeah I agree with you. I am predicting Parasite to win Best International Feature, Best Original Screenplay and Best Editing.

    If it’s winning those 3 prizes, then it’s probably winning Best Picture.

    Profile picture
    Gabriel Guarin
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203306868

    Spotlight: Completely shut out at the Globes, won WGA and BAFTA screenplay. Crash: Completely shut out at the Globes (didn’t even get a Drama Film nom), won WGA and BAFTA screenplay. Gosford Park: Lost screenplay Globe, lost BAFTA screenplay, won WGA. So no, a movie doesn’t have to win both the Globes and BAFTA to win WGA and the Oscar for screenplay. And If you think Critics’Choice is a legit precursor then I don’t know what to tell you.

    You can’t just dismiss Critics’ Choice just because they’re not the industry. Crash won the Critics’ Choice Award for Screenplay at a time when they only had one category and Gosford Park won the Oscar at a time when the Critics’ Choice had only three nominees for, again, a single screenplay category. And it wasn’t the Best Picture winner. That was A Beautiful Mind, which won Adapted Screenplay. So I don’t see how making a Gosford Park comparison is accurate to this race in any capacity.

    Profile picture
    jsn
    Joined:
    Nov 24th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307046

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>And there are plenty of Oscar screenplay winners that didn’t win BAFTA or the Globe.</p>
     

    Get Out – lost both to Three Billboards, won WGA.

    Moonlight – lost both, won WGA.

    The Imitation Game – lost both, won WGA.

    The Descendants – lost both, won WGA.

    Precious – lost the Globe, BAFTA and WGA.

    Milk – wasn’t even nominated for the Globes, lost BAFTA, won WGA.

     

    So the only requirement is WGA (not even that in Precious’ case), which Parasite will win (along SAG, ACE and ADG wins). It’s in a very strong position.

     

    Profile picture
    jsn
    Joined:
    Nov 24th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307097

    You can’t just dismiss Critics’ Choice just because they’re not the industry. Crash won the Critics’ Choice Award for Screenplay at a time when they only had one category and Gosford Park won the Oscar at a time when the Critics’ Choice had only three nominees for, again, a single screenplay category. And it wasn’t the Best Picture winner. That was A Beautiful Mind, which won Adapted Screenplay. So I don’t see how making a Gosford Park comparison is accurate to this race in any capacity.

    I can dismiss the Critics’ Choice because they have absolutely no influence in the race. All they do is try and predict the Oscar winners and copy the Globe winners. It’s commom sense to ignore them to anyone that follows the award season.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 4 weeks ago by jsn.
    • This reply was modified 8 months, 4 weeks ago by jsn.
    Profile picture
    John Berchmans
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307435

    WGA is the most accurate precursor in this category, It doesn’t really matter if Once wins everything else. If Parasite wins Original Screenplay, it still has a strong chance to win the Oscar. Though ideally, it would be nice for Parasite to win BAFTA as well, which I actually think is more possible than people think. Once has lost all momentum, and 1917 will sweep at BAFTA, so they might shut it out of everything except Supporting Actor.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

    Profile picture
    Gabriel Guarin
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307439

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>And there are plenty of Oscar screenplay winners that didn’t win BAFTA or the Globe.</p> Get Out – lost both to Three Billboards, won WGA. Moonlight – lost both, won WGA. The Imitation Game – lost both, won WGA. The Descendants – lost both, won WGA. Precious – lost the Globe, BAFTA and WGA. Milk – wasn’t even nominated for the Globes, lost BAFTA, won WGA. So the only requirement is WGA (not even that in Precious’ case), which Parasite will win (along SAG, ACE and ADG wins). It’s in a very strong position.

    We should only look at 2009 onward because that’s the year Critics’ Choice split the screenplay category into two for Original and Adapted. And we should only look at Original because that’s the screenplay category we’re talking about and pulling from Adapted reeks of desperation. Get Out won the Critics’ Choice. Of the last 9 years, the Critics’ Choice has correctly predicted the Original Screenplay Oscar 7 times, only missing for The Hurt Locker and Green Book. It even predicted Original Screenplay winners that were ineligible for WGA, thrice. For The King’s Speech, Django Unchained and Birdman.

    Profile picture
    Gabriel Guarin
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307476

    WGA is the most accurate precursor in this category, It doesn’t really matter if Once wins everything else. If Parasite wins Original Screenplay, it still has a strong chance to win the Oscar. Though ideally, it would be nice for Parasite to win BAFTA as well, which I actually think is more possible than people think. Once has lost all momentum, and 1917 will sweep at BAFTA, so they might shut it out of everything except Supporting Actor.

    WGA has only predicted the Original Screenplay Oscar 5 of the last 9 years compared to Critics’ Choice’s 7 times, and assuming that Tarantino will probably win the BAFTA Original Screenplay, there just won’t be enough chance of him losing the Oscar. He’s won too many awards to lose momentum and being ineligible at WGA only means so much when he can still win BAFTA (again, assuming he does, which he likely will).

    Profile picture
    Gabriel Guarin
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307487

    I can dismiss the Critics’ Choice because they have absolutely no influence in the race. All they do is try and predict the Oscar winners and copy the Globe winners. It’s commom sense to ignore them to anyone that follows the award season.

    You’re just being pissy. If the Critics’ Choice had no influence whatsoever, why did they choose the frontrunners in most of the other categories? Give me proof of their supposed worthlessness.

    Profile picture
    Human Bartender
    Joined:
    Apr 24th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307537

    You’re just being pissy. If the Critics’ Choice had no influence whatsoever, why did they choose the frontrunners in most of the other categories? Give me proof of their supposed worthlessness.

    You just gave proof. They only ever pick the grit runners. Their choices always coincide with the Globes. The Globes cement frontrunners, and then Critics Choice always chooses the options to make it look like they predicted the Oscars.

    Let’s Go Bucks

    Profile picture
    Gabriel Guarin
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307729

    You just gave proof. They only ever pick the grit runners. Their choices always coincide with the Globes. The Globes cement frontrunners, and then Critics Choice always chooses the options to make it look like they predicted the Oscars.

    My proof to counter that: they picked Get Out for Original Screenplay instead of Golden Globe winner Three Billboards.

    Profile picture
    John Berchmans
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307777

    My proof to counter that: they picked Get Out for Original Screenplay instead of Golden Globe winner Three Billboards.

    That’s one category. The same year they awarded all of the same actors as the Golden Globes even though none of them were the actual critic’s choice.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

    Profile picture
    Gabriel Guarin
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307814

    That’s one category. The same year they awarded all of the same actors as the Golden Globes even though none of them were the actual critic’s choice.

    I’m talking specifically about the Original Screenplay, which Critics’ Choice has correctly predicted 7 of the past 9 years. Compare that to WGA’s 5 out of 9.

    Profile picture
    JackO
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203307869

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>And there are plenty of Oscar screenplay winners that didn’t win BAFTA or the Globe.</p>

    Get Out – lost both to Three Billboards, won WGA.

    Moonlight – lost both, won WGA.

    The Imitation Game – lost both, won WGA.

    The Descendants – lost both, won WGA.

    Precious – lost the Globe, BAFTA and WGA.

    Milk – wasn’t even nominated for the Globes, lost BAFTA, won WGA.

    So the only requirement is WGA (not even that in Precious’ case), which Parasite will win (along SAG, ACE and ADG wins). It’s in a very strong position.

    Yup laughing at the folks clutching their stats.

Viewing 15 posts - 346 through 360 (of 495 total)

The topic ‘2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
ENGLAND - Oct 20, 2020
Movies
Jazzy - Oct 20, 2020
Movies
William... - Oct 20, 2020
Movies