Home Forums Movies 2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 61 through 75 (of 495 total)
Created
1 month ago
Last Reply
3 weeks ago
499
( +5 hidden )
replies
30190
views
95
users
Gabe Guarin
77
John Berchmans
48
thatnerdgreg
32
  • Eddy Q
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 13th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292453

    – First film to win with no Golden Globe Screenplay nom.

    This isn’t true, a small number of PGA winners didn’t have a Globe screenplay nom, including Gravity in the preferential ballot era, although that won in a, ahem, “tie”.

    Not disagreeing with your overall post but just wanted to point that out.

    Gabriel Guarin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292471

    Great victory for 1917. The Technical highligt of the year! Personally I do prefer “Parasite” but 1917 for BP at the Oscars is okay! It is a film which is beautiful and brutal to look at, but it will not be remembered as a masterpiece as time Goes by. It did not Stick with me. I did not care for the characters.

    The fact that you don’t care about the characters is reason enough why the film will not win Best Picture.

    Eddy Q
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 13th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292473

    I wish they were really advertising this though, cause I feel like some people will vote without knowing just how difficult it was to make those amazing set pieces, and choose something else. It’s a very strong group of nominees in this category, but I feel like 1917 is by far my favorite.

    You raise a good point but I don’t think level of difficulty should necessarily be the main factor in consideration when voting for these awards. Nevertheless, 1917 wouldn’t be an undeserving winner.

    John Berchmans
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292481

    Lol. All those stats (and more) were literally JUST broken with 1917 winning PGA. – First film to win PGA without any SAG Noms (preferential ballot era). – First film to win with no ACE Eddie nomination. – Second film to win PGA with no Editing nomination at the Oscars (preceded by Birdman) – First film to win with no Golden Globe Screenplay nom. – No acting noms at BAFTA and Oscar. Why is it so hard to believe all those stats won’t fall at the Oscars? They all literally just fell at PGA. In one whole swoop. The stats fell. They are broken. They’re done. ALL +3 OF THEM COMBINED

    The PGA’s are made up entirely of producers. So 1917 of course performed well on a preferential ballot with just producers. No one in the acting branch (the biggest branch of the academy), the editing branch or the writing branch will vote 1917 at the top of their ballots. That’s 3 of the 5 major branches of the academy. How can a film win without any of their support?

    You guys make this mistake every year. There’s always a film that seems to have all of the momentum on it’s side going into Oscar night. Gravity, Boyhood, The Revenant, La La Land, Three Billboards, Roma. All of them won (or tied) the majority of the precursors. None of them won Best Picture. They do this every year, and these upsets get so easy to predict because they happen EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Florence Pugh
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    Eddy Q
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 13th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292491

    That’s what I call an obsession with stats. Better to use stats and intuition rather than just stats imo.

    That was my point. Are you agreeing with me? I can’t tell…

    thatnerdgreg
    Participant
    Joined:
    Apr 24th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292502

    The PGA’s are made up entirely of producers. So 1917 of course performed well on a preferential ballot with just producers. No one in the acting branch (the biggest branch of the academy), the editing branch or the writing branch will vote 1917 at the top of their ballots. That’s 3 of the 5 major branches of the academy. How can a film win without any of their support? You guys make this mistake every year. There’s always a film that seems to have all of the momentum on it’s side going into Oscar night. Gravity, Boyhood, The Revenant, La La Land, Three Billboards, Roma. All of them won (or tied) the majority of the precursors. None of them won Best Picture. They do this every year, and these upsets get so easy to predict because they happen EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

    First of all, it’s ridiculous to think only producers will vote for 1917. Just because it didn’t get acting nominations or an editing nomination doesn’t mean that actors or editors wouldn’t vote for it. And it got a writing nomination, so you have literally no evidence to say that it wouldn’t get votes from that branch.

    Also of the films you listed, only La La Land and Gravity (which tied with Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave) won at PGA. PGA’s big winner has lined up with the Oscars seven out of nine times this decade. It is the strongest precursor of all, and it should never be discounted.

    24fanatic
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 6th, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292534

    I don’t think 1917 winning the PGA means it’s game over for Best Picture.

    Saving Private Ryan won the PGA way back when and then lost the Oscar… just saying.

    I do think 1917 has Director on lock though and could still get Picture… however… I’m still leaving towards predicting Hollywood for BP based on a preferential ballot and inevitable wins in Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor.

    Meanwhile Parasite never stood a chance unfortunately.

    Gabriel Guarin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292544

    Exactly this. The stats nuts don’t realise 1917 just KO’d a bunch of a stats by scooping PGA.

    That doesn’t necessarily mean the exact same will happen at the Oscars. I just explained this in heavy detail on the PGA Awards winners reactions page.

    Gabriel Guarin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292549

    First of all, it’s ridiculous to think only producers will vote for 1917. Just because it didn’t get acting nominations or an editing nomination doesn’t mean that actors or editors wouldn’t vote for it. And it got a writing nomination, so you have literally no evidence to say that it wouldn’t get votes from that branch. Also of the films you listed, only La La Land and Gravity (which tied with Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave) won at PGA. PGA’s big winner has lined up with the Oscars seven out of nine times this decade. It is the strongest precursor of all, and it should never be discounted.

    No one’s going to think 1917’s writing is better than that of Once Upon a Time, or Parasite, or Marriage Story or even Knives Out. And we’re not saying that the acting and editing branch flat out won’t vote for the movie. What we are saying is that it’ll rank extremely low on the acting and editing ballots, as well as the writing ballots, which is what matters.

    thatnerdgreg
    Participant
    Joined:
    Apr 24th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292559

    No one’s going to think 1917’s writing is better than that of Once Upon a Time, or Parasite, or Marriage Story or even Knives Out. And we’re not saying that the acting and editing branch flat out won’t vote for the movie. What we are saying is that it’ll rank extremely low on the acting and editing ballots, as well as the writing ballots, which is what matters.

    They don’t need to find it the best in those exact categories to find it the best overall though. An actor’s not gonna choose something as their Best Picture winner just because it has their favorite performance, and an editor’s not going to choose something as their Best Picture winner just because it has the best editing. Best Picture is where you take everything into account and decide what’s the best overall film, not the film with the best writing, directing, acting and so on, but the film that combines all the elements the best. If you want to doubt 1917, that’s fine. But this PGA win shows that it’s the frontrunner.

    Aaron Kalloo
    Participant
    Joined:
    Sep 29th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292580

    Visual Effects I am predicting 1917 to win over Avengers Endgame . Could be another First Man and Infinity War situation . Could be wrong though…

    Golden Girl
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 15th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292583

    They don’t need to find it the best in those exact categories to find it the best overall though. An actor’s not gonna choose something as their Best Picture winner just because it has their favorite performance, and an editor’s not going to choose something as their Best Picture winner just because it has the best editing. Best Picture is where you take everything into account and decide what’s the best overall film, not the film with the best writing, directing, acting and so on, but the film that combines all the elements the best. If you want to doubt 1917, that’s fine. But this PGA win shows that it’s the frontrunner.

    These are my feelings exactly. It’s not a done deal, but 1917 is looking like a strong front runner with the capability of performing on a perferential ballot. The film doesn’t have to be loved by every branch. It just has to be liked.

    Aaron Kalloo
    Participant
    Joined:
    Sep 29th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292585

    Yes I agree

    Golden Girl
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 15th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292593

    Visual Effects I am predicting 1917 to win over Avengers Endgame . Could be another First Man and Infinity War situation . Could be wrong though…

    I think this is a strong possibility too. 1917 is more like the orange in the batch of apples. It stands out. I wouldn’t completely rule out the Irishman though. While some have criticized the de-aging technology, it is the freshest advancement in the visual effects field.

    Gabriel Guarin
    Participant
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1203292599

    They don’t need to find it the best in those exact categories to find it the best overall though. An actor’s not gonna choose something as their Best Picture winner just because it has their favorite performance, and an editor’s not going to choose something as their Best Picture winner just because it has the best editing. Best Picture is where you take everything into account and decide what’s the best overall film, not the film with the best writing, directing, acting and so on, but the film that combines all the elements the best. If you want to doubt 1917, that’s fine. But this PGA win shows that it’s the frontrunner.

    I’m not saying they have to find it the best. I’m saying that it’ll rank down at the very bottom, which is what’ll cripple a movie like 1917. And again, PGA is only voted on by producers.

Viewing 15 posts - 61 through 75 (of 495 total)

The topic ‘2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 10)’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
BlackBalls - Feb 20, 2020
Movies
Aubry F... - Feb 20, 2020
Movies
Gabe Gu... - Feb 20, 2020
Movies