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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 11)

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    Federico Rubachin
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    #1203329170

    so you guys think the 2011 was a two pictures race between the descendants and the artist? If you think that this is incorrect, then the BAFTA snub is no a problem

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    jsn
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    #1203329187

    Well The Descendants won the Drama Globe and went to win Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. Hugo was only a tech player, so maybe that was the case.

     

    That doesn’t mean The Descendants could’ve won, The Artist was too strong and there was no alternative.

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    Federico Rubachin
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    #1203329196

    Well The Descendants won the Drama Globe and went to win Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. Hugo was only a tech player, so maybe that was the case. That doesn’t mean The Descendants could’ve won, The Artist was too strong and there was no alternative.

    my point is that if the academy voters doesn’t want to vote a BAFTA snubed, then everyone should know that year that the descendants was the only alternative. As the only alternative , it should had a lot of second votes and could won without problem

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1203329269

    Looking over my predictions this morning I was considering switching my Film Editing prediction from Parasite to Ford v Ferrari – I simply can’t figure out what they are going to do in this category! I just think enough people love Parasite and they will want to make sure it wins more than one Oscar so I think those voters will put it over the top in the Original Screenplay and Film Editing categories, giving it at least 3 Oscars (with a 4th possible BP win but I am not predicting it). On the other hand, Ford v Ferrari has more editing and is more in your face with it (and it’s excellent too).

    I just want to get 80% correct this year! (: Those pesky short subjects tend to do me in! (;

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203329331

    I’m going to feel bad if Bombshell wins Makeup after I convinced all these people to switch to Joker.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    methaddiction
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    #1203329354

    I really can’t decide between 1917 and Parasite on Best Picture they love war movies and it’s going to win the most Oscars this year but Parasite is like the IT thing in the industry right now and it seems to be most people’s favorite film of the year.

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    Nikhil
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    #1203329385

    I’m going to feel bad if Bombshell wins Makeup after I convinced all these people to switch to Joker.

    I’ve been wrestling with the switch myself but I’m sticking to Bombshell for a few reasons:

    1. BAFTA (and they also LOVED Joker)
    2. As you pointed out, and as a general rule of thumb, it’s always wise to bet on a BP nominee in any category. That said, as we most clearly see in the VFX category over time, voters pick things that feel like they are BP noms even if they aren’t. It’s as if you need a level of prestige to be considered. Bombshell has the prestige factor of near miss BP snubs that became Oscar winners like First Man, Beale Street, etc.
    3. They love this type of make up/hair because it’s represented across multiple actors and it’s totally transformative (Vice, Darkest Hour)
    4. Everyone might read my number 2 and point to Suicide Squad or other fantasy films that won, but I think it’s impoetant to note that back then when there were only three nominees you would often have line ups of only commercial movies picked by the Make Up/Hair guild. Moreover, Suicide Squad likely didn’t win for just Joker make up but also for the whole cast. In Joker, it’s really only Phoenix’ make up/hair that stands out. His hair and make up, while definitely iconic and frightening, is also fairly grounded unlike those previous fantasy winners.

    I could be wrong, but I’m going to stick with Bombshell for those reasons.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

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    #1203329422
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    CarlosAlessio10
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    #1203329532

    SAG support + Bafta W + Bombshell’ dominates at Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards.

     

    I’ll stay with Bombshell

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    Qoslca
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    #1203329536

    I really can’t decide whether to predict OUATIH or Parasite in Original Screenplay…

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203329556

    Why would Joker deserve to beat Bombshell? The joke (no pun intended).

    They don’t usually reward the most deserving film though. If that were the case then Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Hobbit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Wonder, and Border would have won. They usually reward the film that is most popular with voters, which (since 1917 is a nonfactor here) is Joker.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203329574

    I’ve been wrestling with the switch myself but I’m sticking to Bombshell for a few reasons: 1. BAFTA (and they also LOVED Joker) 2. As you pointed out, and as a general rule of thumb, it’s always wise to bet on a BP nominee in any category. That said, as we most clearly see in the VFX category over time, voters pick things that feel like they are BP noms even if they aren’t. It’s as if you need a level of prestige to be considered. Bombshell has the prestige factor of near miss BP snubs that became Oscar winners like First Man, Beale Street, etc. 3. They love this type of make up/hair because it’s represented across multiple actors and it’s totally transformative (Vice, Darkest Hour) 4. Everyone might read my number 2 and point to Suicide Squad or other fantasy films that won, but I think it’s important to note that back then when there were only three nominees you would often have line ups of only commercial movies picked by the Make Up/Hair guild. Moreover, Suicide Squad likely didn’t win for just Joker make up but also for the whole cast. In Joker, it’s really only Phoenix’ make up/hair that stands out. His hair and make up, while definitely iconic and frightening, is also fairly grounded unlike those previous fantasy winners. I could be wrong, but I’m going to stick with Bombshell for those reasons.

    1: Makeup voters at both BAFTA and CC (and of course the Makeup Guild) could only vote in that category, so they focussed more on films with great Makeup than films that were in the Best Picture race. However, Makeup voters at the Oscars were pressured to watch more Picture contenders, since that’s the most important vote. That’s why films like Dolemite and Rocketman that deserved nominations were snubbed in favor of name-checking Disney (I doubt voters even saw Maleficant) and 1917. It’s also why categories like Production Design and Costume Design consisted of only films nominated for Best Picture, despite the wealth of options elsewhere (again, Dolemite and Rocketman really got screwed by this).

    2: Does Bombshell have more prestige than Joker? You might think so, but I and the large majority of voters don’t (never forget Bad Guy in the second trailer, LOL!). Also, those other films you listed were successful with critic’s and at the precursors and were projected to do much better at the Oscars. Bombshell only did well at SAG nominations (but got shutout at the awards), got mediocre reviews, and was never predicted in anything except Makeup, Actress, and Supporting Actress since November.

    3: That is true. But you could argue Joker’s makeup is very transformative, just in a more subtle way, as it completely changes the character and nature of Phoenix’s performance.

    4: I don’t agree with the first half of this. Makeup was usually comprised of smaller films or box office failures, with only one big successful blockbuster in contention. There are exceptions like 2014, when both TGBH and GOTG made it in, and 2015, when Mad Max and The Revenant both made it in, but they’re rare. Even this year with 5 nominees the category consists of Judy (small film), Maleficant (box office failure), Bombshell (box office failure), and only two successful big films: 1917 and Joker.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    CateNicole
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    #1203329578

    1: Makeup voters at both BAFTA and CC (and of course the Makeup Guild) could only vote in that category, so they focussed more on films with great Makeup than films that were in the Best Picture race. However, Makeup voters at the Oscars were pressured to watch more Picture contenders, since that’s the most important vote. That’s why films like Dolemite and Rocketman that deserved nominations were snubbed in favor of name-checking Disney (I doubt voters even saw Maleficant) and 1917. It’s also why categories like Production Design and Costume Design consisted of only films nominated for Best Picture, despite the wealth of options elsewhere (again, Dolemite and Rocketman really got screwed by this). 2: Does Bombshell have more prestige than Joker? You might think so, but I and the large majority of voters don’t (never forget Bad Guy in the second trailer, LOL!). Also, those other films you listed were successful with critic’s and at the precursors and were projected to do much better at the Oscars. Bombshell only did well at SAG nominations (but got shutout at the awards), got mediocre reviews, and was never predicted in anything except Makeup, Actress, and Supporting Actress since November. 3: That is true. But you could argue Joker’s makeup is very transformative, just in a more subtle way, as it completely changes the character and nature of Phoenix’s performance. 4: I don’t agree with the first half of this. Makeup was usually comprised of smaller films or box office failures, with only one big successful blockbuster in contention. There are exceptions like 2014, when both TGBH and GOTG made it in, and 2015, when Mad Max and The Revenant both made it in, but they’re rare. Even this year with 5 nominees the category consists of Judy (small film), Maleficant (box office failure), Bombshell (box office failure), and only two successful big films: 1917 and Joker.

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    JackO
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    #1203329707

    1. BAFTA (and they also LOVED Joker)

    That’s why I switched to Bombshell. BAFTA had no reason to give it to them and they did. Joker should have won there if it was winning Oscar.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    Feb 23rd, 2017
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    #1203329724

    That’s why I switched to Bombshell. BAFTA had no reason to give it to them and they did. Joker should have won there if it was winning Oscar.

    BAFTA had a bit of a sheep mentality this year, so I’m not surprised they defaulted to the frontrunner. But John Berchmans pointed out a lot of statistics that favor Joker: it’s one of two Best Picture nominees in this category, the other being 1917 which really stands no chance of winning Makeup, it’s by far the most popular film in the Makeup category, it has the most impact of the five nominees, and it won Period/Character Makeup at the Hollywood Makeup Guild awards, which as John points out, has correctly predicted the Makeup Oscar since 2013.

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