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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 11)

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  • Eddy Q
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    #1203329726

    1: Makeup voters at both BAFTA and CC (and of course the Makeup Guild) could only vote in that category, so they focussed more on films with great Makeup than films that were in the Best Picture race. However, Makeup voters at the Oscars were pressured to watch more Picture contenders, since that’s the most important vote. That’s why films like Dolemite and Rocketman that deserved nominations were snubbed in favor of name-checking Disney (I doubt voters even saw Maleficant) and 1917.

    For the makeup nominations there was a bakeoff like there is every year. So branch members definitely got to observe the work done in Maleficent even if they didn’t watch the whole movie. I’d heard reports that the presentation for Maleficent had gone down very well so it certainly wasn’t name-checking Disney.

    As for what will win, Bombshell should’ve had more of a disadvantage at BAFTA than at Oscar as the Brits might’ve been less overly familiar with Megyn Kelly and Roger Ailes and thus may not have appreciated the physical transformations as much. I actually predicted a Judy upset there as it reminded me of Florence Foster Jenkins which won BAFTA makeup three years ago, and because they often lean British with their picks (The Favourite being another example). Of course that didn’t happen, and Bombshell is relevant and high-profile enough to be seen by at least a decent percentage of Oscar voters for it to prevail. And even those that don’t watch it could probably gauge how impressive the makeup is by the trailer alone. I’m just sceptical that many voters will genuinely find Joker more deserving in this category, even the most ardent fans.

    Edgar Blake
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    #1203329729

    when was the last year a movie that won CC, BAFTA and guild lost the Oscar to one that won nothing?

    1917 will be the #1 at the oscar with at least 4 awards, and Joker will be rewarded with only 2. they do not need to further reward a film that has had many nominations everywhere but always the same two victories, snubbing a well deserved make up work on a coral cast.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m7VDy5N5vs

    this is a realy great job, very technical, and trasformative for the entire lenght of the job, as it was in other biopic like Darkest Hour, Vice or La Mome. while Joker is very small in comparison and very limited to one character in a few scenes: Joker it’s an actor showcase, nothing more.

    Eddy Q
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    #1203329739

    [Joker] won Period/Character Makeup at the Hollywood Makeup Guild awards, which as John points out, has correctly predicted the Makeup Oscar since 2013.

    In that time there hasn’t been another contemporary makeup frontrunner without fantasy elements, so I wouldn’t look too much into that.

    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203329753

    I personally think it would be ridiculous for Joker’s makeup to win. It was great, but Bombshell’s was spectacular. They really did a fantastic job of transforming those actors. Meanwhile, Joker’s makeup is really only restricted to one actor, and while it’s a great design, putting someone in clown makeup and dying their hair feels a lot less impressive than nailing the looks of all those real life figures.

    If anything deserved to upset Bombshell, then I’d say it’s 1917. This is mainly due to the scene when we see a soldier bleeding out, and his face goes to a ghostly pale white. I’m not sure how they did that, but it really wowed me. Although, maybe it was more due to special effects rather than makeup. I’m not sure, but whatever they did to achieve that look was spectacular. With that being said, I still think Bombshell is clearly the best of the nominees, and I’d be upset to see it lose.

    Arthur J. Fleck
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    #1203329774

    Sorry to bother you but Joker is AT LEAST deservedly winning actor and makeup. Those are locks.

    All I have are negative thoughts

    JackO
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    #1203329786

    BAFTA had a bit of a sheep mentality this year, so I’m not surprised they defaulted to the frontrunner. But John Berchmans pointed out a lot of statistics that favor Joker: it’s one of two Best Picture nominees in this category, the other being 1917 which really stands no chance of winning Makeup, it’s by far the most popular film in the Makeup category, it has the most impact of the five nominees, and it won Period/Character Makeup at the Hollywood Makeup Guild awards, which as John points out, has correctly predicted the Makeup Oscar since 2013.

    That’s great. All that applied at BAFTA too where it lost.

    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203329788

    Sorry to bother you but Joker is AT LEAST deservedly winning actor and makeup. Those are locks.

    How is makeup a lock? Bombshell’s been dominating those precursors. Even if you’re predicting Joker to win makeup, there’s no evidence to call it a lock. Joker’s score is it’s second most likely win (which I’m predicting in addition to Phoenix).

    nevkm
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    #1203329800

    Sorry to bother you but Joker is AT LEAST deservedly winning actor and makeup. Those are locks.

    You mean Score. Bombshell is taking Makeup 100%.

    Gabarnes43
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    #1203329811

    Bombshell is 100% taking makeup and Hair, and deservingly app. The transformation of Theron to Megyn Kelly is extraordinary. If her name wasn’t on the credits, I would have had no idea that it was her. It’s won CC, BAFTA and swept Makeup Up guild. If Joker had any support here then it would have won the BAFTA.

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited- Unbelievable

    Drama- Killing Eve/The Crown/The Morning Show
    Jodie, Sandra, Olivia, Jennifer & VIOLA DAVIS

    Comedy- Schitts Creek/ Dead to Me

    ARegularGuy
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    #1203329850

    Anyone else feeling a Moonlight-type narrative forming for Parasite?

    https://www.indiewire.com/video/parasite-best-picture-sundance-mulligan-burnham-1202208630/ – watching this video makes me think it has a lot of widespread support in the industry. I can see it being in more people’s #2 or #3 than 1917. I still think 1917 is likely, but Parasite has its fans there’s no doubt.

    weird fishes
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    #1203329887

    I wish lmfao

    Gabarnes43
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    #1203329949

    Interesting stat- a Margot Robbie Movie has been nominated for Makeup and Hair for the last 4 years- Suicide Squad, I Tonya, Mary Queen of Scots and Bombshell

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited- Unbelievable

    Drama- Killing Eve/The Crown/The Morning Show
    Jodie, Sandra, Olivia, Jennifer & VIOLA DAVIS

    Comedy- Schitts Creek/ Dead to Me

    Manuelcolon
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    #1203329951

    Anyone else feeling a Moonlight-type narrative forming for Parasite?

    https://www.indiewire.com/video/parasite-best-picture-sundance-mulligan-burnham-1202208630/ – watching this video makes me think it has a lot of widespread support in the industry. I can see it being in more people’s #2 or #3 than 1917. I still think 1917 is likely, but Parasite has its fans there’s no doubt.

    I have been thinking the exact same thing, 1917 and La La Land are both technical films that had a lot of pre Oscars support from televised awards and guilds, and Parasite and Moonlight are passion choices with strong acting and writing support.

    1917 is winning kinda the same amount of Oscars that La La Land won, i thought Moonlight won SAG, and that’s a good point for Parasite.

    Honey
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    #1203329959

    Interesting stat- a Margot Robbie Movie has been nominated for Makeup and Hair for the last 4 years- Suicide Squad, I Tonya, Mary Queen of Scots and Bombshell

    I, Tonya wasn’t nominated for Makeup

    nevkm
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