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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 11)

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    Trevor
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    Nov 22nd, 2013
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    #1203334985

    Ughhhh four categories are giving me the biggest headache!

    Picture: 1917 vs. Parasite
    Editing: Ford v Ferrari vs. Parasite
    Visual Effects: 1917 vs. The Irishman vs. The Lion King
    Live Action Short: Brotherhood vs.Nefta Football Club vs. The Neighbors’ Window

    My current predictions are in bold, but that could change before tomorrow night. I want to predict Parasite after two standing ovations from the actors at SAG and its recent surge, but I wrongly predicted Roma last year over Green Book, so I’m going with the safer choice this year.

    Any help with these four categories?

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    Djoko
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    Feb 14th, 2012
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    #1203334987

    Hello there and welcome to the club. First things first; there are no ‘points’ on the preferential ballot. What happens is all 1st place votes are tallied and the film with the fewest #1s is eliminated. Now let’s assume that film is Ford v Ferrari; all ballots with that movie as #1 are redistributed to their second choice as #1, and the vote tabulation starts again. The film with the fewest #1s this time round is the next to be eliminated – let’s say Little Women – so the ballots with Little Women as #1 are again redistributed to their #2 choice (or #3 if they had Ford v Ferrari at #1 originally). This process is repeated until one film has 50% + 1 of the total vote. Most likely it will come down to the final two.

    As for intentionally ranking a rival film low on your ballot, this isn’t actually necessary as only your #1 choice will be counted until it is eliminated, and if that happens there is nothing you could have done to prevent it. So someone wanting Parasite to win need not worry about putting 1917 at #2 if that is how they truly feel. Assuming both these films make it to the final stage of tabulation, that person’s ballot will only ever count towards Parasite. Now unfortunately some Academy members don’t realise this and try to ‘strategically’ warp the ballot to boost their favourite film’s chances, but all this achieves is potentially boosting their less favoured movies while doing nothing to help their favourite.

    Sorry I know this was convoluted but I hope this helps!

    If I want Parasite to win, is it better to put it at #2 or #3 than at #1? If they throw out the #1 votes in the first round then I want my film to have sustainability in the rest of the rounds so I put it at #2 or #3 and films like Little Women and FvF above it. Is this correct or am I totally wrong?

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    SuperStarShapedGummy
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    Feb 8th, 2020
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    #1203335004

    If I want Parasite to win, is it better to put it at #2 or #3 than at #1? If they throw out the #1 votes in the first round then I want my film to have sustainability in the rest of the rounds so I put it at #2 or #3 and films like Little Women and FvF above it. Is this correct or am I totally wrong?

    I think if you want Parasite to win, you should put it at #1. This would give it the best chance to withstand being the “bottom movie.” If everyone doesn’t pick Parasite to be #1, and instead #2, who wants it to win for example, it will be eliminated before it gets a chance to make a difference.

    At least, that’s my understanding of preferential balloting. The whole point being is that if your favorite movie isn’t in the running, your 2nd place or 3rd place, etc becomes important because it acts like a #1 for another movie. So for people who don’t pick either Parasite or 1917 or OUATIH as their favorite, their 2nd favorite is very important.

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    Eddy Q
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    Oct 13th, 2012
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    #1203335006

    If I want Parasite to win, is it better to put it at #2 or #3 than at #1? If they throw out the #1 votes in the first round then I want my film to have sustainability in the rest of the rounds so I put it at #2 or #3 and films like Little Women and FvF above it. Is this correct or am I totally wrong?

    If you genuinely like FvF and Little Women even more than Parasite, you should have them at #1 and #2. Chances are they would be eliminated early so your ballot will default to Parasite. However if Parasite is your true favourite there’s no reason not to put it at #1, as your ballot will then only count towards Parasite unless it ends up being eliminated earlier than we suspect.

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    Alexa Aristizabal
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    #1203335024

    Production Design is a bitch. I don’t think OUATIH has this locked at all.

    Gut says it’s going to be Parasite. THAT house. Everybody talks about it, and that architecture stays with you. I don’t think that many voters outside of LA will appreciate OUATIH’s nostalgic reconstruction of the city.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203335207

    Gut says it’s going to be Parasite. THAT house. Everybody talks about it, and that architecture stays with you. I don’t think that many voters outside of LA will appreciate OUATIH’s nostalgic reconstruction of the city.

    Tell that to La La Land.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203335211

    Production rarely goes to contemporary set designs and especially non-costume design nominees (with the past 10 years having been won only by costume design nominees/winners) but it’s not impossible. I do get vibes by Pitt ending up being the sole win for Hollywood like Tilda Swinton, Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain) etc.

    Michael Clayton and Cold Mountain were both weaker than Once Upon a Time. I think Once Upon a Time is pretty secure for this.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    Feb 19th, 2012
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    #1203335227

    Looked over my predictions and I’m not changing any of them. All I want is to get at least 80% this year!!!! Several categories could go one way or another but most categories feel to me very locked as to who the winner will be!

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203335263

    Question: if 1917 is going to win VFX, why did The Irishman win at the VFX Society?

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    Asgaroth
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    #1203335304

    Gut says it’s going to be Parasite. THAT house. Everybody talks about it, and that architecture stays with you. I don’t think that many voters outside of LA will appreciate OUATIH’s nostalgic reconstruction of the city.

    PD rarely, almost never, goes to a movie with a contemporary urban set. No matter how beloved Parasite can be it’s foolish to predict it’s gonna take PD.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203335335

    If I’m recalling correctly, the last film to win PD without a corresponding Costume Design nomination is 2009’s Avatar. This is bad news for Parasite and 1917.

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203335340

    Tell that to La La Land.

    I get your point, but this shows that we’ve stuff like this before. Something more unique like Parasite could serve as a threat because of that.

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    Alexa Aristizabal
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    #1203335370

    Correct. But then again, every win for Parasite would be historic in its own way, so if I predict it to win big, I will have to detach myself from history and take some risks with my predictions. Or risk it all and have it backfire in my face.

    Pretty confident Parasite wins: Editing, International, Original Screenplay
    A girl can dream: Production Design, Directing, Film

    If I’m recalling correctly, the last film to win PD without a corresponding Costume Design nomination is 2009’s Avatar. This is bad news for Parasite and 1917.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203335436

    Correct. But then again, every win for Parasite would be historic in its own way, so if I predict it to win big, I will have to detach myself from history and take some risks with my predictions. Or risk it all and have it backfire in my face.

    That’s the great risk with comes with Oscar predictions. Not to mention a lot of anxiety and post-show shock and burnout. At least for me.

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