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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 6)

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  • Irvin Malcolm Contreras
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    #1203155493

    I agree with Stegeo. If Roma couldn’t beat Green Book of all films I don’t see how Parasite would beat much less divisive films like Marriage Story or The Irishman. I also have absolutely no faith in Neon.

    Roma is artsy. Brilliant film but I can see how some people will not connect with it. Parasite is something else though. It’s connecting with a wide swath of people who are declaring it the best of the year or one of the best of the year. It’s quite accessible….and also doesn’t have the Netflix controversy that handicapped Roma.

    Pulp
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    #1203155497

    Roma is artsy. Brilliant film but I can see how some people will not connect with it. Parasite is something else though. It’s connecting with a wide swath of people who are declaring it the best of the year or one of the best of the year. It’s quite accessible….and also doesn’t have the Netflix controversy that handicapped Roma.

    I agree with you, but also Roma was Cauron and Parasite isn’t. If a FLF was gonna win best picture a Cauron film would be the one to do it. Not sure Bong has enough cred for one of his films to go all the way. I don’t really buy the Netflix bias thing, I certainly think Netflix is more likely to win best picture than Neon. That being said, Parasite is the best movie I’ve seen since Mad Max Fury Road. I don’t want to talk myself out of the possibility of it winning best picture, but I don’t want to get my hopes up either when becoming the first foreign film to win best picture feels impossible.

    #FreeTheBannedFour

    M: The Original
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    #1203155507

    I agree with you, but also Roma was Cauron and Parasite isn’t. If a FLF was gonna win best picture a Cauron film would be the one to do it. Not sure Bong has enough cred for one of his films to go all the way. I don’t really buy the Netflix bias thing, I certainly think Netflix is more likely to win best picture than Neon. That being said, Parasite is the best movie I’ve seen since Mad Max Fury Road. I don’t want to talk myself out of the possibility of it winning best picture, but I don’t want to get my hopes up either when becoming the first foreign film to win best picture feels impossible.

    Moonlight prevailed. Best Picture isn’t impenetrable these days with enough overall high placements in voting.

    Kathy Bates for Best Supporting Actress (Richard Jewell)

    Pulp
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    #1203155516

    Moonlight prevailed

    Moonlight wasn’t divisive? It’s exactly the type of film that would win on a preferential ballot. Without the preferential ballot it almost certainly would have lost.

    #FreeTheBannedFour

    Irvin Malcolm Contreras
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    #1203155583

    Moonlight wasn’t divisive? It’s exactly the type of film that would win on a preferential ballot. Without the preferential ballot it almost certainly would have lost.

    This is exactly why I think Parasite could prevail: The preferential ballot. As I said, a wide swath of people with varying film tastes are declaring it a masterpiece/the best film of year. Unless there’s an actual concerted effort to actually prevent this from winning, I don’t see a lot of ballots ranking this film below the Top 3.

    thomasrigours
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    #1203155590

    ^It’s not winning. The Irishman is. It’s gonna be a crowdspleaser, a fun film with big names behind it. Nothing else truly has that Best Picture appeal.

    The Irishman is not a crowdspleaser

    Cinephile
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    #1203155594

    I agree with Stegeo. If Roma couldn’t beat Green Book of all films I don’t see how Parasite would beat much less divisive films like Marriage Story or The Irishman. I also have absolutely no faith in Neon.

    I think its less to do with the whether or not voters thought Roma was superior to its contemporaries, its more about voters feeling that Roma was sufficiently rewarded in Foreign Language and Best Director.

    We can observe that voters are moving away from big sweeps and embracing sharing the wealth of winners. Thus, the question is, will voters feel comfortable giving Parasite the 2 arguably biggest awards of the night; both best film oscars?

    Personally, I don’t think so. I think regardless of how much they love Parasite I just don’t see them giving it both awards.

     

    John Berchmans
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    #1203155605

    I think everyone is underestimating Parasite‘s chance to win Best Picture. No other film has gotten such an across the board acclaim across many, many demographics from people with diverse tastes. Practically everyone I know *LOVES* it. I don’t remember this happening on any other film, even critically acclaimed ones. There’s always two or three naysayers who say, “Eh, it wasn’t THAT good” or “I *hated* it.”

    I think most voters will have it on top or near the top of their ballots.

    Parasite has two massive disadvantages in its way to a Picture win. The first one is the fact that its a foreign film, which many of you mentioned. The other is the fact that it won the Palme D’Or at Cannes. No Palme D’Or winner has ever won Picture at the oscars.

    I think Parasite will be this years Roma: the critics favorite that wins Picture at a few precursors (like Critics Choice and BAFTA) as well as Director and International Film at the Oscars (and maybe a tech category) but ultimately loses to the crowd favorite to boost ratings, which will be Jojo Rabbit this year.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Uncut Gems, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Benny and Josh Safdie, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Phoenix, Sandler, Pattinson, Driver, Bale
    Actress: Nyong'o, Johansson
    S. Actor: Dafoe, Kang-Ho, Rockwell, Pacino, Hopkins
    S. Actress: Dern, McKensie, Yeo-Jeong, Julia Fox
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman, Toy Story 4
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Uncut Gems, Us

    POR160893
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    #1203155608

    Oscars, just give Park So-dam the best supporting actress award next year … even just for her rap “Jessica, Only child, Illinois. Chicago, classmate Kim Kin-Mo, he’s your cousin”

    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203155785

    If anything is going to benefit from the preferential ballot, I think it’s Marriage Story. I can’t see it getting considerable backlash at any point in time as opposed to Jojo Rabbit and maybe even The Irishman

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203155826

    Parasite has two massive disadvantages in its way to a Picture win. The first one is the fact that its a foreign film, which many of you mentioned. The other is the fact that it won the Palme D’Or at Cannes. No Palme D’Or winner has ever won Picture at the oscars. I think Parasite will be this years Roma: the critics favorite that wins Picture at a few precursors (like Critics Choice and BAFTA) as well as Director and International Film at the Oscars (and maybe a tech category) but ultimately loses to the crowd favorite to boost ratings, which will be Jojo Rabbit this year.

    I mean, I know that Jojo Rabbit is a crowd-pleaser but Green Book won because very few ranked it last and it was saved by either being towards the top or middle of the ballots of most (Vice/Bohemian Rhapsody were a lot more divisive.) Some of the vitriol towards Jojo Rabbit is a lot stronger than anything leveled towards Green Book at any point in time before it won, you can bet it’s gonna be ranked last by quite a few more than Green Book.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    #1203155845

    Darlings, Parasite doesn’t deserve any Oscar! Bing Bong is far from winning Director. That’s probably going to Sam Mendes for his annoying and baity work.

    The Iron Lady, protector of the GoldDerby reign.

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

    Tyler
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    #1203155860

    If anything is going to benefit from the preferential ballot, I think it’s Marriage Story. I can’t see it getting considerable backlash at any point in time as opposed to Jojo Rabbit and maybe even The Irishman

    Marriage Story is also perfectly under-the radar right now which will help with any potential overhype backlash

    John Berchmans
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    #1203155953

    Some of the vitriol towards Jojo Rabbit is a lot stronger than anything leveled towards Green Book at any point in time before it won, you can bet it’s gonna be ranked last by quite a few more than Green Book.

    Is it? Green Book had a ton of different controversies all working against it at the same time (Viggo’s N word, untrue historically, Farrelly’s sketchy past) and still won. And both films are virtually tied right now on Rotten Tomatoes, so it’s not like there’s a ton of critical backlash.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Uncut Gems, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Benny and Josh Safdie, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Phoenix, Sandler, Pattinson, Driver, Bale
    Actress: Nyong'o, Johansson
    S. Actor: Dafoe, Kang-Ho, Rockwell, Pacino, Hopkins
    S. Actress: Dern, McKensie, Yeo-Jeong, Julia Fox
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman, Toy Story 4
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Uncut Gems, Us

    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203155961

    Is it? Green Book had a ton of different controversies all working against it at the same time (Viggo’s N word, untrue historically, Farrelly’s sketchy past) and still won. And both films are virtually tied right now on Rotten Tomatoes, so it’s not like there’s a ton of critical backlash.

    Yes, it is. Jojo Rabbit’s controversy is inherently tied to its content while Green Book’s controversies were mostly manufactured after its festival release. It’s telling that Jojo Rabbit had such negative critical reactions right after its festival debut while Green Book’s critical reactions were overall much more positive right after TIFF.

    Also, Rotten Tomatoes isn’t a good metric for comparing the reception of the two. Jojo Rabbit has a yellow 58 score on Metacritic, while Green Book has a green 69. Green Book’s lowest score was a 30 while Jojo Rabbit already has four scores below 30, so yes, critics who dislike Jojo Rabbit dislike it much moreso than Green Book.

    I believe someone on the Emmy thread outlined how preferential work a while ago; you don’t have to have that many number one votes to win, but a few last place votes can really tank you even if you have more number ones. The outright critical divisiveness of Jojo Rabbit is already an indicator that this could happen, while Green Book likely placed in the middle of the ballot.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

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