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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 6)

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  • John Berchmans
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    #1203155998

    Yes, it is. Jojo Rabbit’s controversy is inherently tied to its content while Green Book’s controversies were mostly manufactured after its festival release. It’s telling that Jojo Rabbit had such negative critical reactions right after its festival debut while Green Book’s critical reactions were overall much more positive right after TIFF. Also, Rotten Tomatoes isn’t a good metric for comparing the reception of the two. Jojo Rabbit has a yellow 58 score on Metacritic, while Green Book has a green 69. Green Book’s lowest score was a 30 while Jojo Rabbit already has four scores below 30, so yes, critics who dislike Jojo Rabbit dislike it much moreso than Green Book. I believe someone on the Emmy thread outlined how preferential work a while ago; you don’t have to have that many number one votes to win, but a few last place votes can really tank you even if you have more number ones. The outright critical divisiveness of Jojo Rabbit is already an indicator that this could happen, while Green Book likely placed in the middle of the ballot.

    I don’t really think Metacritic is a very accurate measure of acclaim. They only analyse a very select few reviews from “elite” critics (who are usually contracted to SJW mainstream media outlets and predispositioned to dislike films like Jojo Rabbit or Joker). There’s tons of great critics on youtube like Chris Stuckman, Dan Murrel, Jeremy Jahns, Sean Chandler, etc, who’s opinions are just completely ignored. (By the way, all of those critics gave Joker glowing reviews.) Rotten Tomatoes isn’t perfect, but at least they take everyone’s opinions into account. There’s no selectivity like on metacritic.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203156006

    I don’t really think Metacritic is a very accurate measure of acclaim. They only analyse a very select few reviews from “elite” critics (who are usually contracted to SJW mainstream media outlets and predispositioned to dislike films like Jojo Rabbit or Joker). There’s tons of great critics on youtube like Chris Stuckman, Dan Murrel, Jeremy Jahns, Sean Chandler, etc, who’s opinions are just completely ignored. (By the way, all of those critics gave Joker glowing reviews.) Rotten Tomatoes isn’t perfect, but at least they take everyone’s opinions into account. There’s no selectivity like on metacritic.

    I mean, I’m just not sure what you’re arguing here. If we went on Youtube reviews, Hereditary would have been nominated last year, but they’re not representative of the industry.

    You start out by saying that Jojo Rabbit is winning over less divisive films because it’s a crowd pleaser. You may not agree with “SJW” reviewers, but does that mean that their opinions don’t exist and won’t hold weight? My point was, even so-called “SJW” reviewers were not as harsh on Green Book. If we were going non-preferential, I would say Jojo Rabbit could win, but the mere existence of such negative reception hurts Jojo Rabbit’s chances of winning significantly. We’re talking about Academy members here, a lot of whom subscribe to the same mainstream liberal values that you’re apparently dismissing.

    My question to you is, even if you’re dismissing the opinions of some reviewers, why would voters default to never putting Jojo Rabbit at the bottom when movies like Marriage Story, Irishman, and Parasite are much less likely to be put at the bottom? None of those movies really had any reception as negative as some of Jojo Rabbit’s, so I don’t find your labeling as a crowd-pleaser specific enough because Green Book was middle-of-the-road no matter who you take into account.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

    Nikhil
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    #1203156028

    If anything is going to benefit from the preferential ballot, I think it’s Marriage Story. I can’t see it getting considerable backlash at any point in time as opposed to Jojo Rabbit and maybe even The Irishman

    I agree from a backlash perspective, but I think Marriage Story will suffer due to a lack of passion. Just because it’s not getting a lot of number 9s doesn’t mean it’s getting a lot of number 1s and 2s. I think it will face a similar awards trajectory as A Star is Born. Well respected (especially for its performances), but ultimately, not special or important enough to nab the top prize.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203156038

    I agree from a backlash perspective, but I think Marriage Story will suffer due to a lack of passion. Just because it’s not getting a lot of number 9s doesn’t mean it’s getting a lot of number 1s and 2s. I think it will face a similar awards trajectory as A Star is Born. Well respected (especially for its performances), but ultimately, not special or important enough to nab the top prize.

    I mean yeah, depending on the trajectory of other films I can see that happening. But I would call a film that trends towards the top to middle of the preferential a safer bet than a film getting either number ones or votes towards the bottom. Ultimately with preferential, not being ranked towards the bottom becomes more important than tie-breaking between numbers of 1’s or 2’s. If MS gets slightly less 1’s or 2’s but The Irishman gets ranked towards the bottom more often then MS is more likely to win.

    Also, Tyler is right, MS doesn’t have the stigma of being an early frontrunner. They dialed down the ASIB campaign out of fear of that because it was such a high-profile project, MS is under the radar to enough of the general population to disqualify it from that status.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

    Nikhil
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    #1203156079

    I find myself switching my number 7-9 films every day because I can think of reasons or a narrative for each one.

    Assuming the top 6 are Irishman, Marriage Story, 1917, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, OUATIH:

    – Joker: biggest R rated movie of the year, dominated conversation, feels like the populist movie that breaks in
    – Little Women: acclaimed director adapting beloved story, stacked female-driven project with modern take, late breaking contender
    – The Two Popes: big studio, powerful crowd pleaser, made people cry
    – Just Mercy: big studio, powerful crowd pleaser, made people cry
    – Ford v. Ferrari, big studio, powerful crowd pleaser, old guard movie
    – Bombshell: socially relevant/important/modern, stacked cast, feels like Vice/Big Short
    – Queen and Slim: socially relevant/important/modern, late breaking contender/spoiler
    – The Farewell: early contender, A24, fading unfortunately
    – ABDITN: acclaimed director takes on beloved subject matter with legendary actor, made people cry
    – Waves: new and exciting film, A24, made people cry

    Right now I would say my 7-9 are:
    7. Little Women
    8. Joker
    9. Just Mercy

    What are your 7-9s?

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Nikhil Nandu.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Nikhil Nandu.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203156090

    When I think about it in the context of hundreds of voters needing to rank it #1 to be nominated, I think Joker is definitely making it in. If Queen & Slim hits with audiences I would put it in, but barring that I think that Bombshell and Little Women will have enough support based on current reactions. Some of these other films (Just Mercy, ABDITN) seem a little flat to be #1 to that many voters but maybe I’ll be proven wrong.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

    Honey
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    #1203156095

    7. Joker
    8. ABDITN
    9. The Two Popes

    MrGoodWood
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    #1203156099

    I find myself switching my number 7-9 films every day because I can think of reasons or a narrative for each one.

    Assuming the top 6 are Irishman, Marriage Story, 1917, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, OUATIH:

    – Joker: biggest R rated movie of the year, dominated conversation, feels like the populist movie that breaks in
    – Little Women: acclaimed director adapting beloved story, stacked female-driven project with modern take, late breaking contender
    – The Two Popes: big studio, powerful crowd pleaser, made people cry
    – Just Mercy: big studio, powerful crowd pleaser, made people cry
    – Ford v. Ferrari, big studio, powerful crowd pleaser, old guard movie
    – Bombshell: socially relevant/important/modern, stacked cast, feels like Vice/Big Short
    – Queen and Slim: socially relevant/important/modern, late breaking contender/spoiler
    – The Farewell: early contender, A24, fading unfortunately
    – ABDITN: acclaimed director takes on beloved subject matter with legendary actor, made people cry
    – Waves: new and exciting film, A24, made people cry

    Right now I would say my 7-9 are:
    7. Little Women
    8. Joker
    9. Just Mercy

    What are your 7-9s?

    Joker, but I have it much higher than than 7th. Like it or not, it is the biggest movie of the year and it’s not missing out.
    Ford v Ferrari, because it looks like something AMPAS goes for.
    Little Women, for the reasons you already said.

    Oh, and I’m not sold on 1917 yet. The trailer didn’t look that special at all and I don’t think Mendes is a particularly good filmmaker.

    And I would also add Richard Jewell and Downton Abbey into your list of possibilities.

    Mr. Tintin
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    #1203156107

    I don’t really think Metacritic is a very accurate measure of acclaim. They only analyse a very select few reviews from “elite” critics (who are usually contracted to SJW mainstream media outlets and predispositioned to dislike films like Jojo Rabbit or Joker). There’s tons of great critics on youtube like Chris Stuckman, Dan Murrel, Jeremy Jahns, Sean Chandler, etc, who’s opinions are just completely ignored. (By the way, all of those critics gave Joker glowing reviews.) Rotten Tomatoes isn’t perfect, but at least they take everyone’s opinions into account. There’s no selectivity like on metacritic.

    RT Average Score. They have a bigger pool of ratings than Metacritic.

    Jojo Rabbit has a 7.5/10. Green Book has a 7.23/10.

    Oscars 2020: I stan Joaquin Phoenix, Willem Dafoe, Alan Silvestri, and Dean Deblois.

    Emmys 2020: I stan Logan Lerman, Olivia Colman, and David Harbour.

    Tom Hanks and Amy Adams stan in general.

    24fanatic
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    #1203156132

    In terms of the winner for Best Picture, I would say the rankings (right now) would be:

    1) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    2) The Irishman
    3) Marriage Story
    4) Jojo Rabbit

    I think Once Upon… still has the most going for it as of now to take BP. It’s a film by a respected director who has never won Best Picture or Director before (but has a strong shot of doing so this year!). It features 3 big Hollywood stars who all stand a decent shot at scoring noms and one who might win (Brad Pitt). The film was critically acclaimed and loved by audiences to the tune of $140 million at the Box Office. On paper, it has the best stats to win so far.

    The Irishman could turn out to be the better film, but the Netflix thing will hurt it. Plus there is no immediate need to award Martin or any of his actors, since they all have previous wins under their belts. The film will have to be an undeniable masterpiece to win.

    Marriage Story is also hurt by Netflix. Plus, the film doesn’t scream Best Picture winner even if it’s a great film, which let’s face it, many films that do win are just okay (Hi Green Book!).

    Personally, I loved Jojo Rabbit and thought it was sensational, hilarious and heartwarming. So did the audience I saw it with… but it appears that not everyone feels that way. Not sure what the disconnect is with some people but appears to be there. So the subject matter might keep some voters from voting for this.

    As for other potential nominees…

    Parasite is a brilliant film that has ZERO chances of winning Best Picture! Let’s learn our lesson from last year, shall we? Americans will always shy away from honoring a foreign film… especially with the existence of that separate category.

    Bombshell needs to come out first… if it really is great and worthy, liberal voters might rally for it… it would make for a timely winner. Then again, maybe conservative voters would stop this from winning. Idk.

    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203156144

    Girl, what?

    Poor choice of wording.

    How many contenders are rip-offs of Goodfellas.

    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203156152

    RT Average Score. They have a bigger pool of ratings than Metacritic. Jojo Rabbit has a 7.5/10. Green Book has a 7.23/10.

    Green Book had a 93 on RT at around this time last year though and an 8 average, and a 7.7 average a few weeks after its release in December. Green Book also has a 7.25 based on 335 reviews while Jojo only has 198, so its score could likely go down as it approaches similar samplings to Green Book. Which is my point, a lot of the flak towards GB came after/very near its Oscar win, so at this point early in the campaign cycle it was definitely not as controversial as Jojo.

    And yes, I will concede that GB had a 7.3 on the day that Academy voting closed, but if Jojo Rabbit follows a similar trend it could go down further yet. The point remains that if a film is dogged with controversy upon its release as opposed to later in the game, it will affect its chances more with the former.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Dennis El Mar.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

    Qoslca
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    #1203156168

    Right now I would say my 7-9 are:
    7. Little Women
    8. Joker
    9. Just Mercy

    What are your 7-9s?

    My 7 – 10s are:
    7: Little Women
    8: ABDITN
    9: Parasite
    10: Bombshell

    As much as the hype is for it, I’m still having a struggle seeing Parasite garner a BP nom. It’s a Korean foreign film and I don’t get the comparisons with Roma. That was a film by one of the most respected modern directors in Hollywood, plus Netflix hired one of the top Oscar strategists for it – and it still didn’t win.

    For me, Ford v Ferrari is #6. I think it’s more than strong enough a film to get middle of the pack votes. I’m still waiting to see the public reception of Bombshell before I move it higher on my list. Finally, as far as Joker goes, I don’t see it making BP at all. It’s too divisive a film in my opinion. Plus, I think this year has too many heavyweights for a film as polarizing as that to make it in the lineup.

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

    JackO
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    #1203156170

    I find myself switching my number 7-9 films every day because I can think of reasons or a narrative for each one.

    Assuming the top 6 are Irishman, Marriage Story, 1917, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, OUATIH:

    – Joker: biggest R rated movie of the year, dominated conversation, feels like the populist movie that breaks in
    – Little Women: acclaimed director adapting beloved story, stacked female-driven project with modern take, late breaking contender
    – The Two Popes: big studio, powerful crowd pleaser, made people cry
    – Just Mercy: big studio, powerful crowd pleaser, made people cry
    – Ford v. Ferrari, big studio, powerful crowd pleaser, old guard movie
    – Bombshell: socially relevant/important/modern, stacked cast, feels like Vice/Big Short
    – Queen and Slim: socially relevant/important/modern, late breaking contender/spoiler
    – The Farewell: early contender, A24, fading unfortunately
    – ABDITN: acclaimed director takes on beloved subject matter with legendary actor, made people cry
    – Waves: new and exciting film, A24, made people cry

    Right now I would say my 7-9 are:
    7. Little Women
    8. Joker
    9. Just Mercy

    What are your 7-9s?

    7. Joker
    8. 1917
    9. Bombshell

    I dont trust 1917 till we get some reactions. It could be a technical spectacle that falls short or it could be a frontrunner for BP, we just dont know.

    I found reax to Little Women lacking and already had it low so just dropped it.

    Two Popes seems to have been lost in the strength of Netflix’s slate and the GG shuffle. I think it is done in BP but still has chance in other categories.

    I was early Just Mercy backer but the hype just isnt there. Especially for a late release. Oh well.

    Ford v Ferrari had big early hype that has disappeared to nothing. I see it as a mere tech play. The decision to run Bale as lead is death knell.

    Queen and SLim apparently premiered already and no one noticed. I think that says everything.

    People keep saying Farewell is fading and yet it killed it at the Gothams.

    ABDITN seems like every Hanks film. Warm and fuzzy but no passion. Never predicted it in BP.

    People are still trying to make Waves happen? lol

    Honey
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    #1203156191

    ABDITN seems like every Hanks film. Warm and fuzzy but no passion. Never predicted it in BP.

    He was in 5 BP nominees this decade and the lead actor for 4 of them though.

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