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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 6)

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  • Dennis El Mar
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    #1203142017

    Actually it was Woody Allen, which only makes a third win for Tarantino seem more likely. The academy will want to scrub Woody Allen’s name off the record books as soon as possible.

    Sorry, I was mistaken, Chayefsky won two Original and one Adapted. But I’m not sure that there’s enough evidence yet with regards the writing branch’s voting patterns that they would vote for Tarantino just to tie Allen. In fact, Allen being the only one to achieve said feat does say quite a bit about their voting patterns; his second and third wins were 25 years apart with eight nominations between them.

    Maybe you’ll disagree, but in my opinion Tarantino does not have this same level of clout with the writing branch. It would be incredibly unprecedented that he win a third so soon unless they just really like the film across the board.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

    Pulp
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    #1203142020

    Actually it was Woody Allen, which only makes a third win for Tarantino seem more likely. The academy will want to scrub Woody Allen’s name off the record books as soon as possible.

    Let’s be real, if he deserved it, they’d nominate Allen again in a heartbeat if it weren’t for the public backlash they’d face.

    ayanami
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    #1203142022

    My Oscar predictions (updated):

    Best Picture: Jojo Rabbit
    Best Director: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
    Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

    Best Original Screenplay: Marriage Story or The Farewell
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit

     

    babypook
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    #1203142030

    Sorry, I was mistaken, Chayefsky won two Original and one Adapted. But I’m not sure that there’s enough evidence yet with regards the writing branch’s voting patterns that they would vote for Tarantino just to tie Allen. In fact, Allen being the only one to achieve said feat does say quite a bit about their voting patterns; his second and third wins were 25 years apart with eight nominations between them.

    Maybe you’ll disagree, but in my opinion Tarantino does not have this same level of clout with the writing branch. It would be incredibly unprecedented that he win a third so soon unless they just really like the film across the board.

    But, you can count on one hand the number of writers who have the same kind of clout the great Chayefsky had. He was a genius, not that Tarantino isn’t also.

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 3 days ago by  teri.
    • This reply was modified 3 weeks, 3 days ago by  teri.
    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203142038

    But, you can count on one hand the number of writers who have the same kind of clout the great Chayefsky had. He was a genius, not that Tarantino isn’t also.

    I think the original user was referring to Allen’s clout, but I’d say both have more than Tarantino. Although Tarantino has more than Allen today, as people now think of the latter as a creepy pervert, and most of his recent projects weren’t well received.

    Dennis El Mar
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    #1203142040

    But, you can count on one hand the number of writers who have the same kind of clout the great Chayefsky had. He was a genius, not that Tarantino isn’t also.

    Writers branch is probably one of the least sentimental. Chayefsky was an unparalleled genius as a screenwriter and won all of his on merit. Tarantino far and away deserved his two Oscars (and deserved one for Basterds as well) but it’s hard for me to see any precedent for him winning a third Oscar for one of his weakest screenplays. I’m not sure even Allen or Chayefsky could pull that one off.

    FYC: Mary Kay Place in Diane

    Heptapod
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    #1203142098

    ^ The Farewell is considered an original screenplay even if it’s based on a person’s telling of an actual event

    I think I read somewhere that it’s campaigning adapted? I could definitely be wrong, though. And with how finicky the Academy is about adapted work, I could see it running original all season before being forced into adapted just for the Oscars.

    Pulp
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    #1203142100

    I think I read somewhere that it’s campaigning adapted? I could definitely be wrong, though. And with how finicky the Academy is about adapted work, I could see it running original all season before being forced into adapted just for the Oscars.

    I feel like this will almost definitely happen, just like Moonlight.

    John Berchmans
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    #1203142318

    I just found out that my local theater is screening The Lighthouse starting next Thursday. I’ll try to see it next Sunday and then tell you guys my thoughts on it, and maybe add it to my list of stans if I like it. After spending so much time on these forums, I’m expecting nothing but perfection from Robert Pattinson and Willem Dafoe.

    For Your Consideration.

    Best Picture: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Roman Griffin Davis
    Best Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell
    Best Supporting Actress: Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit, Joker
    Best Original Screenplay: Parasite

    Salsa Club
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    #1203142517

    Caught The Lighthouse again last night at its NY opening. Sold out crowd screaming and laughing at the absolute go-for-broke pissing match between Dafoe and Pattinson for two hours. Can absolutely confirm (again) that Dafoe disappears for long stretches of time while Pattinson hogs the camera, losing his mind on the Scandinavian rock.

    Can’t stress enough how good Dafoe is in this and how he deserves the Oscar this year. I think there’s something in The Lighthouse for everyone to enjoy. Hopefully voters will take to it like audiences and critics seem to be

    Qoslca
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    #1203142645

    Has anyone else noticed that the expert predictions are all over the map this year?

    My username stands for “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

    Eddy Q
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    #1203142659

    I just found out that my local theater is screening The Lighthouse starting next Thursday. I’ll try to see it next Sunday and then tell you guys my thoughts on it, and maybe add it to my list of stans if I like it. After spending so much time on these forums, I’m expecting nothing but perfection from Robert Pattinson and Willem Dafoe.

    Well I don’t know if I would exactly describe Pattinson’s performance as ‘perfection’ as it’s less clean than Dafoe’s – not sure how else to describe it – and I’m not entirely sure which accent he was going for. But honestly this wasn’t a problem for me, as his relative inexperience compared to Dafoe actually heightens the drama and relationship of the characters, and Pattinson’s physicality and gusto he brings to his later, more dialogue-heavy scenes is staggering. On its own merits it’s a nomination-worthy performance for sure.

    Dafoe, on the other hand, is sheer perfection, if such a thing exists in acting.

    Salsa Club
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    #1203142665

    Dafoe, on the other hand, is sheer perfection, if such a thing exists in acting.

    Hopefully Oscar voters acknowledge this as well and give him the golden statuette

    Eddy Q
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    #1203142674

    Actually it was Woody Allen, which only makes a third win for Tarantino seem more likely. The academy will want to scrub Woody Allen’s name off the record books as soon as possible.

    Oh come on, no one votes like that.

    Josh5890
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    #1203142774

    Has anyone else noticed that the expert predictions are all over the map this year?

    I love it. Less predictability, the better.

     

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