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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 7)

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  • JackO
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    #1203172034

    Driver stans have to keep making up narratives out of whole cloth. First it was but muh school shootings! then it was but muh incels! then it was but muh heath ledger! Now it’s imaginary backlash to a billion dollar grossing movie.

    The next thing you’ll tell me is tHe fArEwElL hAs nO bUzZ!!!!!

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    Cinephile
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    #1203172052

    Driver stans have to keep making up narratives out of whole cloth. First it was but muh school shootings! then it was but muh incels! then it was but muh heath ledger! Now it’s imaginary backlash to a billion dollar grossing movie. The next thing you’ll tell me is tHe fArEwElL hAs nO bUzZ!!!!!

    what are you even going on about. Everything in that post about Joker was directly sourced from Anne Thompson whom interviewed ampas voters and shared it in the indiewire screentalk podcast. Why don’t you listen to that first before you start attacking people.

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    Babygirl
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    #1203172067

    Driver stans have to keep making up narratives out of whole cloth. First it was but muh school shootings! then it was but muh incels! then it was but muh heath ledger! Now it’s imaginary backlash to a billion dollar grossing movie. The next thing you’ll tell me is tHe fArEwElL hAs nO bUzZ!!!!!

    The thing I posted literally came out of Anne Thompson’s own mouth though? No need for a meltdown, it’s not that serious. 💀

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    Hammad Asif
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    #1203172147

    I really wanted Bale and Joaquin on “Actors on Actors”.

    Kubrick-Scorsese-Nolan-Coens-PTA-Fincher-Hitchock-Spike Lee-Tarantino
    19yr old Film School Student

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    Cordelia
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    #1203172151

    what are you even going on about. Everything in that post about Joker was directly sourced from Anne Thompson whom interviewed ampas voters and shared it in the indiewire screentalk podcast. Why don’t you listen to that first before you start attacking people.

    Joker stans have a persecution complex. They aren’t happy enough that Joaquin is very likely getting nominated, which is a big achievement for this type of movie and high praise. They want to be greedy and get Best Picture as well, and will get mad at anyone saying otherwise. They have no understanding of genres or who votes for the Oscars. This is a lot of people’s first Oscars rodeo, so some basic realities aren’t being understood.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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    Babygirl
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    #1203172155

    Joker stans have a persecution complex. They aren’t happy enough that Joaquin is very likely getting nominated, which is a big achievement for this type of movie and high praise. They want to be greedy and get Best Picture as well, and will get mad at anyone saying otherwise. They have no understanding of genres or who votes for the Oscars. This is a lot of people’s first Oscars rodeo, so some basic realities aren’t being understood.

    I’ve been wanting to say something like this all season but didn’t know the right way. You took the words out of my mouth lol.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203172175

    Joker stans have a persecution complex. They aren’t happy enough that Joaquin is very likely getting nominated, which is a big achievement for this type of movie and high praise. They want to be greedy and get Best Picture as well, and will get mad at anyone saying otherwise. They have no understanding of genres or who votes for the Oscars. This is a lot of people’s first Oscars rodeo, so some basic realities aren’t being understood.

    The Oscars are changing though. That at least is pretty obvious to see. I’ve mentioned this a lot on the forums before, but everyone just continues to ignore it. Their ratings are plummeting, hard. Voters know this, and because of that will be much more likely to nominate at least a couple big films this year, especially since last year saw an uptick when Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star is Born. So they know it works, and will want to do it again. That doesn’t mean that they’ll sacrifice their core values and nominate Avengers Endgame, but a very baity drama film with a phenomenal lead performance, which already has a ton of audience and industry support and at least one major festival win is right up their alley. And it’s not like the Oscar’s are strangers to poorly reviews. Even going past last year, there’s plenty of examples of low scoring films earning Picture nominees. What I’m saying is, there’s no way the highest grossing Best Picture nominee this year only makes $450 Million dollars when last year’s highest grossing made $1.3 Billion. And Joker is the only major Oscar contender this year with that kind of box office.

    You guys hate comparing Joker to Bohemian Rhapsody (even though it’s a pretty apt comparison), but they’re extremely similar in one big way. No one ever thought they’d be nominated for Best Picture, and kept constantly denying even the possibility of it happening until it was impossible to deny. Don’t make the same mistake again this year. I won’t.

    That’s my final case for Joker. I’m sick and tired of arguing about this film that I love. It’s like The Last Jedi all over again, but for the Oscars. I’ll just wait until the precursors prove me right.

    For Your Consideration.

    Best Picture: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
    Best Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell
    Best Supporting Actress: Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit, Joker
    Best Original Screenplay: Parasite, Ford v Ferrari

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    Babygirl
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    #1203172183

    What I’m saying is, there’s no way the highest grossing Best Picture nominee this year only makes $450 Million dollars when last year’s highest grossing made $1.3 Billion.

    It’s not like that would be impossible though? As I said before, Joker’s box office success is a good thing but I don’t think some voters are gonna be shocked by it’s numbers judging by how basic most of them think sometimes, I just feel like they’ll see this as another “comic book movie” having successful numbers. At least with BR nobody expects biopics to gross that much.

    As for Venice, Joker managing to win was impressive but in this century only 3 films that have won Golden Lion have managed to get in Best Picture and all those films had STELLAR reviews, were top 2-3 for BP with only 1/3 winning. So it’s not really a good indicator when it comes to the Oscars.

    The Oscars are changing but by a SMALL amount. Yes, we just had the first superhero film nominated for Best Picture this year but Black Panther had a very strong narrative that was too big to ignore. Just because we see small changes in the committee doesn’t mean the lightning will strike twice. I see so many people backing their predictions based on what happened last year and it shouldn’t be taken for granted. BR‘s box office may be a factor on it’s Oscar success but that isn’t the sole reason why it got in BP and had Oscar success.

    Anyway, the point I’m trying to make is that Joker has the visibility but with the film being polarizing, genre bias still being a thing (y’all don’t like to hear this but it should be considered) and credible sources like Anne Thompson saying this film didn’t sit well with the AMPAS voters she has spoken with then I can see the film getting shut out of Best Picture being a possibility.

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    LLLhawks
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    #1203172222

    I don’t understand why the Oscars even need to be televised. Just reward who they really think are worthy without worrying about what will happen to their ratings.

    With that said, please nominate Avengers: Endgame. It’s a good movie.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    Cinephile
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    #1203172224

    Anyway, the point I’m trying to make is that Joker has the visibility but with the film being polarizing, genre bias still being a thing (y’all don’t like to hear this but it should be considered) and credible sources like Anne Thompson saying this film didn’t sit well with the AMPAS voters she has spoken with then I can see the film getting shut out of Best Picture being a possibility.

    I wonder if Joker gets snubbed in bp how that’ll be interpreted. Is it a signal of the genre bias and divisiveness of the film or does that solidify Joaquin’s oscar as all the residue love for Joker will be streamlined to him.

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    Hammad Asif
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    #1203172291

    Knives Out have 98% RT currently.It has one of best critical reception currently along The Irishman,Marriage Story and Parasite.

    Why isn’t it being considered a major threat?

    Kubrick-Scorsese-Nolan-Coens-PTA-Fincher-Hitchock-Spike Lee-Tarantino
    19yr old Film School Student

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    EsOS
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    #1203172295

    Another thing that hurts Joker is that the main star isn’t as naturally likeable as Rami Malek and that he won’t campaign.

    FYC: Octavia Spencer (Luce) - Best Supporting Actress

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    M: The Original
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    #1203172301

    Knives Out have 98% RT currently.It has one of best critical reception currently along The Irishman,Marriage Story and Parasite.

    Why isn’t it being considered a major threat?

    Because it has box office bomb written all over it from the unfunny previews.

    Kathy Bates for Best Supporting Actress (Richard Jewell)

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    Hammad Asif
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    #1203172373

    Because it has box office bomb written all over it from the unfunny previews.

    I don’t think so.

    At a modest budget and only 125mins long “Knives Out” can be a sleeper hit.

    James Bond and Captain America can also pull some crowd in opening weekend.

    Kubrick-Scorsese-Nolan-Coens-PTA-Fincher-Hitchock-Spike Lee-Tarantino
    19yr old Film School Student

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    Heptapod
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    #1203172383

    Because it has box office bomb written all over it from the unfunny previews.

    I think it’ll do pretty well for itself. Virtually every time that movie has come up in conversation, everyone I’ve been talking to has been insanely excited for it. From grandparents to college students. And strangely enough, not just for Craig and Evans! A lot of the middle age people I know are hyped for a Toni Collette movie, and even the older people are pumped to see Jamie Lee Curtis again. Don’t sleep on Knives Out. I still think it’s a strong contender for SAG Ensemble.

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