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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 7)

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  • Tyler
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    #1203183787

    I just slotted Egerton in for Murphy, as he seems to me like he could be this year’s Washington who makes a precursor splash after being in an assumed 7-10th place going in to Globe noms. He’s locked for GG (though I still think Murphy wins), has a great shot at BAFTA, and makes sense at SAG too considering AFTRA. That and he’s campaigning hard right now and Elton will be vocal.  Holy wow is this category stacked.

    Blanche
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    #1203183882

    In My Opinion:

    Tier I:

    • Adam Driver, Marriage Story
    • Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

    Tier II:

    • Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    • Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

    Tier III:

    • Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
    • Taron Edgerton, Rocketman
    • Robert De Niro, The Irishman

    Tier IIII:

    • Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
    • Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

    Unknown:

    • George McKay, 1917
    • Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell

    Sweetie, add Eddie Redmayne somewhere.

    Cordelia
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    #1203183933

    Sweetie, add Eddie Redmayne somewhere.

    This isn’t the Razzies. The Aeronauts is not entering the Oscars race (not even for the stunning cinematography).

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

    JackO
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    #1203183940

    I kinda fell asleep to The Two Popes. The awful sound mixing on the DVD didnt help. Oh well I’ll try again.

    John Berchmans
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    #1203183950

    I kinda fell asleep to The Two Popes. The awful sound mixing on the DVD didnt help. Oh well I’ll try again.

    Is it really that boring? Now I’m a little worried.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Adam Driver, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
    Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, Scarlett Johansson
    S. Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell, Al Pacino, Alan Alda
    S. Actress: Laura Dern, Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari

    Babygirl
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    #1203183975

    Two Popes is so getting in Best Picture. Underestimate at your peril.

    John Berchmans
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    #1203184004

    Two Popes is so getting in Best Picture. Underestimate at your peril.

    I just don’t feel confident about Netflix getting 3 films into Best Picture. Not just because of bias, but also: when was the last time a studio other than Fox did it? That’s a really hard feat to pull off.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Adam Driver, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
    Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, Scarlett Johansson
    S. Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell, Al Pacino, Alan Alda
    S. Actress: Laura Dern, Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari

    Babygirl
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    #1203184012

    I just don’t feel confident about Netflix getting 3 films into Best Picture. Not just because of bias, but also: when was the last time a studio other than Fox did it? That’s a really hard feat to pull off.

    There’s a few members on AW that went to events for Two Popes with Oscar voters present and they said the audience loved it and plus it’s a type of movie AMPAS love. I don’t get why people are underestimating Two Popes‘ appeal with crowds, yes it didn’t win TIFF but the lack of screenings it had there hurt it chances but it’s still winning a ton of other festival audience awards. I don’t see how 3 Netflix films getting in BP will be a huge barrier when the field will have 8 nominees in total lol.

    EsOS
    Spectator
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    #1203184014

    I’m still not sure what to think, but I’m putting Antonio in my top five, at least for now. I already have Cruz there. I haven’t had the chance to see it so I’m not sure if I should consider other below the line nods to attach to it.

    Oh you have to see it. It’s incredible. Banderas is stunning. I hope it gets into Picture and Screenplay.

    Banned for making a fake movie poster

    MMartin
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    #1203184055

    8 nominees

    Because this is a highly competitive year and 8 nominees is not a lot in a highly competive year, lets say The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Two Popes all make it in, that leaves the last 5 spots divided between:

    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, Joker, The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Bombshell, Pain & Glory, and more longshot nomination possibilities with Rocketman, Queen & Slim, Endgame, and Richard Jewell.

    Frankly to me at this point, the first 7 films I listed all feel more likely to me than The Two Popes because of Netflix. But who knows, The Two Popes does look like the very standard safe biopic (Darkest Hour, Hidden Figures, The Theory of Everything, Ray) that the Academy loves to nominate. But all of those movies had successful box office runs, which The Two Popes will not have. And it will also be suffering do to Netflix running bigger campaigns for Marriage Story and The Irishman. All of A24’s Best Picture energy is going to be on The Farewell on the other hand. While Warner Bros. is going to be pushing Joker like wild.

    JackO
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    #1203184062

    Is it really that boring? Now I’m a little worried.

    Eh, I wouldnt call it boring but it definitely is no comedy.

    Babygirl
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    #1203184083

    https://twitter.com/kylebuchanan/status/1196173549733441536?s=20

    I hope The Farewell gets in BP, it really deserves it. Love that Zhao Shuzhen is campaigning too!

    Cordelia
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    #1203184212

    I just don’t feel confident about Netflix getting 3 films into Best Picture. Not just because of bias, but also: when was the last time a studio other than Fox did it? That’s a really hard feat to pull off.

    Here’s a question as an answer – when was the last time a studio had a lineup this good for the Oscars? When was the last time one studio have as many quality contenders for performance awards (Marriage Story, The Irishman, The Two Popes, Dolemite Is My Name)?

    It’s not unprecedented per se – there are some really lopsided years in the 60s – but I think Netflix has the films that hit different demographics to potentially pull it off.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

    thesmark88
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    Sep 23rd, 2017
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    #1203184240

    Interestingly enough, it looked at one point that Sony of all people might have 3 Best Picture nominees this year: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Little Women and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. The last two have had their buzz cool off a bit, but they’re also a possibility.

    LLLhawks
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    Dec 28th, 2018
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    #1203184770

    When are MS, Irishman and 2 Popes heading to Netflix?

    I just love movies. And awards.

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