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2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 8)

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  • Cordelia
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    #1203210576

    Rewatched The Irishman. I don’t think this is Scorcese’s masterpiece. That might be the harshest thing I have to say about it. For a large chunk of the film, it hits the quality level of a Gangs of New York/The Departed. Good but not great. And then the finale hits, which is the most emotionally impactful thing Scorcese has ever had in his filmography. It recontextualises the rest of the film very deeply.

    In general, I am a sucker for films that could be interpreted as directors reflecting on their careers (The Wind Rises for another great 2010s example, and Pain and Glory this year). The Irishman isn’t my favourite film this race, but it is worthy.

     

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Parasite

    bellajoe
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    #1203210598

    Maybe it’s just me, but I have no trust in the Academy to make good decisions. In a just world, Joon-ho would win director. (and the Lighthouse would be a major contender)

    However, the acting races this year are looking to be very light on diversity, and if the 5 directors are all men, that’s two scandals waiting to happen. I can easily see the academy snubbing Joon-ho in order to nominate Gerwig.

    In my opinion, Tarantino, Joon-ho, and Baumbach could all potentially be at risk, but I don’t see them snubbing Tarantino, and Marriage Story (solely due to its chances of getting more noms than Parasite) may end up too big to snub Baumbach. Still haven’t seen Marriage Story, but I personally don’t see any way that it could be better directed than Parasite

    Cordelia
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    #1203210606

    Maybe it’s just me, but I have no trust in the Academy to make good decisions. In a just world, Joon-ho would win director. (and the Lighthouse would be a major contender) However, the acting races this year are looking to be very light on diversity, and if the 5 directors are all men, that’s two scandals waiting to happen. I can easily see the academy snubbing Joon-ho in order to nominate Gerwig. In my opinion, Tarantino, Joon-ho, and Baumbach could all potentially be at risk, but I don’t see them snubbing Tarantino, and Marriage Story (solely due to its chances of getting more noms than Parasite) may end up too big to snub Baumbach. Still haven’t seen Marriage Story, but I personally don’t see any way that it could be better directed than Parasite

    If a director is getting snubbed of a nomination, it isn’t Joon-ho. As last year’s Cold War nomination proved, the director’s branch has a LOT of international voters that have significant influence.

    The more likely snub is Baumbach. His film is visually low-key, and isn’t flashy. The Gravity and Life of Pi wins are examples of how big spectacle films are another means for Best Director success. Baumbach is not international nor spectacle.

    Furthermore, it is the sort of film where he is more likely to be rewarded for screenplay categories than directing in precursors.

     

     

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Parasite

    John Berchmans
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    #1203210608

    Maybe it’s just me, but I have no trust in the Academy to make good decisions. In a just world, Joon-ho would win director. (and the Lighthouse would be a major contender) However, the acting races this year are looking to be very light on diversity, and if the 5 directors are all men, that’s two scandals waiting to happen. I can easily see the academy snubbing Joon-ho in order to nominate Gerwig. In my opinion, Tarantino, Joon-ho, and Baumbach could all potentially be at risk, but I don’t see them snubbing Tarantino, and Marriage Story (solely due to its chances of getting more noms than Parasite) may end up too big to snub Baumbach. Still haven’t seen Marriage Story, but I personally don’t see any way that it could be better directed than Parasite

    Joon-Ho is way, way safer than Gerwig. Directors of color have been nominated every year since 2011. Most of them have won. And only 1 female was nominated in that time. Also, no female has ever been nominated twice, not even winner Kathryn Biggalow. If the academy wanted to give a female director two nominations, they would have nominated her for Zero Dark Thirty.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    JackO
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    #1203210662

    Saw Uncut Gems. It isnt possible but if there was a film with a negative chance at scoring Oscar recognition, this is it. Sandler wasnt even that good. Another case fo critics/[undits pushing someone because they didnt star ina dogcrap movie again. It has no business being in the Comedy/Musical category. The only laughs are incidental as the film goes in ever-increasingly nonsensical situations. It’s crass. It’s vulgar. It’s the ultimate FilmBro film. And it aint going nowhere this awards season.

    MMartin
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    #1203210720

    the acting races this year are looking to be very light on diversity

    Yeah, I think we might get more diverse nominees come Oscar time. I could see a actor sneaking in from Parasite. I think Awkwafina as a strong shot for a Best Actress nom, and Zhao Shuzhen might get in Supporting. I think Jennifer Lopez is probably getting a Supporting nom. Sterling K. Brown is a Supporting possibility. Ervio and Woodward are a Actress possibility. Murphy might sneak into Best Actor, tho that race does look like a all white lineup.

    Right now the potential winners all do look very white, which the Academy has been trying to avoid in recent years.

    JackO
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    #1203210732

    Also since Irishman has been released on the world seeing lots of “good,not great” takes. Confirms my priors that it will get a ton of noms and win very little.

    babypook
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    #1203210745

    I guess we shall see. I’m sticking with at least five Oscar wins.

    Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
    Philip K Dick Blade Runner

    kingfan011
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    #1203210829

    Bong is winning best director.

     

    I am not bothering with Uncut Gems. I found Good Time aggressively annoying so I don’t think I can sit  through this.

    AnotherVice
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    #1203210835

    Yeah, I think we might get more diverse nominees come Oscar time. I could see a actor sneaking in from Parasite. I think Awkwafina as a strong shot for a Best Actress nom, and Zhao Shuzhen might get in Supporting. I think Jennifer Lopez is probably getting a Supporting nom. Sterling K. Brown is a Supporting possibility. Ervio and Woodward are a Actress possibility. Murphy might sneak into Best Actor, tho that race does look like a all white lineup. Right now the potential winners all do look very white, which the Academy has been trying to avoid in recent years.

    One of the reasons why I think JLo could win. She might be the only POC who could contend for a win because Laura seems like a weak front runner.

    justonemorething
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    #1203210854

    Scorsese, Joon Ho, Gerwig, Baumbach, Mendes is likely your directing line up. As much as I liked OUATIH I think Tarantino is fading.

    John Berchmans
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    #1203210877

    The Irishman will either sweep or walk away basically empty handed. I’m beginning to think Pacino could be it’s only win.

    That’s exactly what I’m predicting. Same with OUATIH and Original Screenplay being it’s only win.

    For Your Consideration

    Best Picture: Parasite
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho,
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson
    Supporting Actor: Al Pacino
    Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
    Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
    Original Screenplay: Parasite

    cinetastic
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    #1203210888

    The Irishman will either sweep or walk away basically empty handed. I’m beginning to think Pacino could be it’s only win.

    I think, the Irishman will be the Favorite 2.0. Although the Favorite had 10 nominations, it couldn’t manage to be Academy’s favorite, besides Olivia.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by  cinetastic.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by  cinetastic.
    Qoslca
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    Oct 19th, 2018
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    #1203210893

    Scorsese, Joon Ho, Gerwig, Baumbach, Mendes is likely your directing line up. As much as I liked OUATIH I think Tarantino is fading.

    Same lineup I have, except I’ve replaced Baumbach with Waititi.

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

    Tyler
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    #1203210901

    The more likely snub is Baumbach. His film is visually low-key, and isn’t flashy. The Gravity and Life of Pi wins are examples of how big spectacle films are another means for Best Director success. Baumbach is not international nor spectacle. Furthermore, it is the sort of film where he is more likely to be rewarded for screenplay categories than directing in precursors.

    But Marriage Story is likely top 4, if not 3 in picture, so I think Baumbach is still safe. Manchester by the Sea was by no means a spectacle but Lonergan was always safe in director because the film was an easy #3.

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